Which university?

...

You're being far too conservative. I got the same AS grades as you but with mediocre GCSEs and Bristol/Bath/Southampton all gave me an offer no questions asked within a month.

Of course, every application is different because maybe my personal statement was flawless (it wasn't) or maybe my reference was exceptional (it wasn't).

With your grades, there's no reason to play safe in terms of whether you will receive an offer or not. Although, a case can still be made for wanting to get a low-grade offer for insurance. But that's just down to confident you are, as an individual, of getting the grades you want.

ok, so what you're saying is that with a half decent personal statement and reference, I shouldn't find it too hard getting offers from cambridge/durham/bath/bristol/nottingham? I would like to have one insurance choice, just in case!

I would also like to ask (sorry for hijack!),why it seems that anyone who has the AS grades can pretty much get an offer from Bath/Bristol/Southampton for engineering when they tend to be in top 10 in most leagues. I know that leagues aren't everything but does that mean that apart from Oxbridge and Imperial, engineering courses are not that competitive?

I have no official statistics to back this up but I do have anecdotal experience from sixth-form classmates who also achieved 4/5 As at AS. Regardless of the courses we were applying for, we all all received offers from the the likes of Bristol/Bath/Southampton with no questions asked and within a month of sending off our respective UCAS applications.

You're obviously very bright with those grades, many grats, but what are your predicteds? Are you carrying all 4 subjects forward to A2 or dropping one?

The old adage applies that you shouldn't apply to anywhere that you aren't prepared to go to BUT I always say its best to have a backup plan and maybe face up to reality if things don't go as hoped. I know somebody who got 12A* GCSE, 4A AS and then AAB at A2 with no obvious extenuating reason. Not saying this will happen to you only that it does happen.

Of the unis on your list my son applied to Nottingham and Durham last year. Nottingham gave him an offer reasonably quickly but Durham being entirely a law unto themselves waited quite a long time until they gave him an offer and he certainly wasn't one of the last. I don't know about the rest of the places you've listed but Southampton which has a really high reputation was really fast with an offer. Basically different places are weird with the differences in their offer making and it doesn't always seem to be linked to their reputation.

I'd throw in a AAB/ABB "just in case". There are some decent courses out there at that kind of level. Otherwise how risky you want to be depends on your predicteds and confidence.

GL