The Student Room Group

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon (and others)

Hi all !

I was wandering through this forum and found it interesting so i wanted to discuss something with you guys :smile:

First, imma sum up some facts (they are legion so i wont source them but feel free to check them/debunk me if i got some of them wrong) :

What's going on in Syria and Iraq :

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS/ISIL) conquered Ramadi and Falluja, two cities not far west of Bagdad, Iraq, then declared Falluja was the capital of their new state, then defeated the Iraqi counter offensive.
ISIS is Al Qaida affiliated, and did the conquest with the help of the tribal clans of the Anbar province (the same that helped the US chase Al Qaida, like a decade ago).
Their state would be made of the Anbar province (south west part of Iraq) and from this map you can see theyre trying to carve themselves out a "triangle" that would go from the Jordan/Iraq border to Latakia, Jarabulus and Shadadeh (dont attack me on geometry !).
All recent reports say ISIS is deeply embattled with FSA (Free Syrian Army) in the east of Syria which says 2 things :
1 - They have really no feud with Bashar Al Assad except that he's standing in the territory they want to have,
2 - They re trying to reach for the sea (thats why i included Latakia in my "triangle".

What's going on in Syria and Lebanon :

The Hezbollah is stretched, fighting side by side with Assad in Syria and weakened in its status of "Guardians of the Resistance" against Israel, given that it is actively killing thousands of Sunni Muslims in Syria. The number of terrorist attacks against chiites in Lebanon is growing, Saudi Arabia just pledged 3b$ to the Lebanese army, partly to buy French weapons. The 2 reasons the Lebanese army never stood up to the Hezbollah are :
1 - It was committed solely to defend Lebanon against Israel
2 - The Lebanese army wasnt strong enough.
Now both facts seem to be false.

What's going on in Jordan and Lebanon :

Jordan has 2m Palestinian refugees (vs 6m Jordanians), Lebanon 500k (vs 4m Lebanese) which threaten the stability of both countries since they have been banned civil rights by both countries for many decades which prevented them from having a decent living (slowly improving in Jordan, i dont know in Lebanon), and they arent too happy about it.
On top of that, they received recently 1m (Lebanon) and 500k (Jordan) Syrian refugees, so both these countries are pushed to the limit economically, socially, in every way...
And even more, Lebanon is in the situation we know, and the King of Jordan is very old (92) and the transition being smooth is far from a sure thing.

What is the rest of the world doing about this:

Iran has been an ally of Assad and the Hezbollah (more than an ally) for a long time now, and isnt unfriendly to the Iraqi army as it did not constitute an obstacle for smuggling all sort of things to Syria and Hezbollah.
Saudi Arabia is very active in funding the Sunni rebels in Syria (close to Al Qaida), and obviously in acting against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and if ISIS win in the east of Syria, they will see the road from Tehran to Hezbollah conveniently cut.
France is very happy : no one wants to buy their Rafale, but theyre still selling weapons !
The US has made itself irrelevant in the Middle East for now.
Russia supports Assad and Iran in this conflict, and successfully put the US out of the game, diplomatically speaking with the chemical gas event (not saying the Russians gassed anyone!)

The sideshow :
- Some reports say that Saudi Arabia has paid-for nukes waiting to be delivered sitting in Pakistan others say that Saudi Arabia would cooperate with Israel in the event of a strike. They can be true or false, but Saudi Arabia seems more than alarmed by the idea of Iran having nukes.
- Saudi Arabia is drifting away from the US in its alliances
- Iran, North Korea and Pakistan virtually have the same nuclear program (it emanates from the same guy) and the 2 latter were supported by China during the building of their nuclear weapon (China is currently the first buyer of Iranian oil).
- China is the biggest holder of US debt
- China is literally buying tons of gold & called for the end of the $ as an international reserve
- China its expanding its territory through growing its sea and airspace and even including some islands - imposing new facts on the Japanese civil aviation
- Japan has voted its biggest defense budget ever (China was delighted)
- Kim Jong Il keeps on talking crazy and fed his uncle to the dogs to show how serious he is about being crazy.
- The US are still the US, the only gorilla in the jungle

Thats about all i can see.

How see things :

A lot of the events in Syria and Lebanon (and to some extent, Iraq) are part of a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Saudi Arabia trying to separate Iran from its allies out of being alarmed by Iran's nuclear program.
I think the escalation (or the de-escalation) of the events in the Middle East will be linked with Iran becoming (or not) a nuclear power.
On the global sceneChina is placing its pawns on the board in the objective of becoming the main world power, and is doing so by helping its allies to fulfill some of their goals, which are seen like as many hot points by the west, thus spreading confusion (well done China).

Do you think i got it right ? or am i painting a too dark picture ?
How do you see things evolve in the future ?

Peace, and sorry for the long post !
Reply 1
Original post by Onenine8nine
Hi all !

I was wandering through this forum and found it interesting so i wanted to discuss something with you guys :smile:

First, imma sum up some facts (they are legion so i wont source them but feel free to check them/debunk me if i got some of them wrong) :

What's going on in Syria and Iraq :

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS/ISIL) conquered Ramadi and Falluja, two cities not far west of Bagdad, Iraq, then declared Falluja was the capital of their new state, then defeated the Iraqi counter offensive.
ISIS is Al Qaida affiliated, and did the conquest with the help of the tribal clans of the Anbar province (the same that helped the US chase Al Qaida, like a decade ago).
Their state would be made of the Anbar province (south west part of Iraq) and from this map you can see theyre trying to carve themselves out a "triangle" that would go from the Jordan/Iraq border to Latakia, Jarabulus and Shadadeh (dont attack me on geometry !).
All recent reports say ISIS is deeply embattled with FSA (Free Syrian Army) in the east of Syria which says 2 things :
1 - They have really no feud with Bashar Al Assad except that he's standing in the territory they want to have,
2 - They re trying to reach for the sea (thats why i included Latakia in my "triangle".

What's going on in Syria and Lebanon :

The Hezbollah is stretched, fighting side by side with Assad in Syria and weakened in its status of "Guardians of the Resistance" against Israel, given that it is actively killing thousands of Sunni Muslims in Syria. The number of terrorist attacks against chiites in Lebanon is growing, Saudi Arabia just pledged 3b$ to the Lebanese army, partly to buy French weapons. The 2 reasons the Lebanese army never stood up to the Hezbollah are :
1 - It was committed solely to defend Lebanon against Israel
2 - The Lebanese army wasnt strong enough.
Now both facts seem to be false.

What's going on in Jordan and Lebanon :

Jordan has 2m Palestinian refugees (vs 6m Jordanians), Lebanon 500k (vs 4m Lebanese) which threaten the stability of both countries since they have been banned civil rights by both countries for many decades which prevented them from having a decent living (slowly improving in Jordan, i dont know in Lebanon), and they arent too happy about it.
On top of that, they received recently 1m (Lebanon) and 500k (Jordan) Syrian refugees, so both these countries are pushed to the limit economically, socially, in every way...
And even more, Lebanon is in the situation we know, and the King of Jordan is very old (92) and the transition being smooth is far from a sure thing.

What is the rest of the world doing about this:

Iran has been an ally of Assad and the Hezbollah (more than an ally) for a long time now, and isnt unfriendly to the Iraqi army as it did not constitute an obstacle for smuggling all sort of things to Syria and Hezbollah.
Saudi Arabia is very active in funding the Sunni rebels in Syria (close to Al Qaida), and obviously in acting against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and if ISIS win in the east of Syria, they will see the road from Tehran to Hezbollah conveniently cut.
France is very happy : no one wants to buy their Rafale, but theyre still selling weapons !
The US has made itself irrelevant in the Middle East for now.
Russia supports Assad and Iran in this conflict, and successfully put the US out of the game, diplomatically speaking with the chemical gas event (not saying the Russians gassed anyone!)

The sideshow :
- Some reports say that Saudi Arabia has paid-for nukes waiting to be delivered sitting in Pakistan others say that Saudi Arabia would cooperate with Israel in the event of a strike. They can be true or false, but Saudi Arabia seems more than alarmed by the idea of Iran having nukes.
- Saudi Arabia is drifting away from the US in its alliances
- Iran, North Korea and Pakistan virtually have the same nuclear program (it emanates from the same guy) and the 2 latter were supported by China during the building of their nuclear weapon (China is currently the first buyer of Iranian oil).
- China is the biggest holder of US debt
- China is literally buying tons of gold & called for the end of the $ as an international reserve
- China its expanding its territory through growing its sea and airspace and even including some islands - imposing new facts on the Japanese civil aviation
- Japan has voted its biggest defense budget ever (China was delighted)
- Kim Jong Il keeps on talking crazy and fed his uncle to the dogs to show how serious he is about being crazy.
- The US are still the US, the only gorilla in the jungle

Thats about all i can see.

How see things :

A lot of the events in Syria and Lebanon (and to some extent, Iraq) are part of a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Saudi Arabia trying to separate Iran from its allies out of being alarmed by Iran's nuclear program.
I think the escalation (or the de-escalation) of the events in the Middle East will be linked with Iran becoming (or not) a nuclear power.
On the global sceneChina is placing its pawns on the board in the objective of becoming the main world power, and is doing so by helping its allies to fulfill some of their goals, which are seen like as many hot points by the west, thus spreading confusion (well done China).

Do you think i got it right ? or am i painting a too dark picture ?
How do you see things evolve in the future ?

Peace, and sorry for the long post !


what the hell do most of you guys and girls here on TSR smoke anyway? i thought youn people were supposed to be smart but all i hear on here is the same drivel over and over again thats just been regurgitated by the mainstream media.

Read some Chomsky and John Pilger, please.

ill reply to your whole post tomorrow, I have to get up in 4 hours right now xx
Reply 2
I believe that Chomsky and Pilger are too staunchly anti-west to be of any objectivity in these matters. Their works contain a great amount of ideology, and im really not interested in confronting ideologies.

Looking forward to read your reply and please, leave my smartness out of the discussion.
Btw smart old guy, since my post was the only post you didnt have to quote me. Just saying...

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