What if Franz Ferdinand hadn't been shot?

Highly unlikely ww1 would not have happened, our glorious leaders were dying to go to war and the assassination of Ferdinand was the catalyst not the cause.

Not too differently, imo. War would most likely still have started, just had different beginnings. The various sides were posturing well before Franz bought it in Sarajevo.

Either this or the world would be very different - like a paradise perhaps

Do you think there would have been another catalyst? Maybe it would have just simmered for ages and not actually found an excuse to kick off...

And besides, Ferdinand had already survived an assassination attempt earlier that same day before eventually getting shot. Clearly someone was rather stubborn.

There are too many idiots on earth for that to happen.



Unlikely. The stand off was as tense as any of the 'worst' points of the Cold War, but players were much less connected and open to diplomacy (no hotline to the Kremlin/equivalents).

And besides, Ferdinand had already survived an assassination attempt earlier that same day before eventually getting shot. Clearly someone was rather stubborn.

Do you think there would have been another catalyst? Maybe it would have just simmered for ages and not actually found an excuse to kick off...

Either this or the world would be very different - like a paradise perhaps

You make it sound like a world war was inevitable? and since there was a second - if this is the case then won't there be a third?

I did not know this! There you go.

Have to say that I'm inclined to agree that nothing would have really changed that much if he hadn't been shot.

How much would it have delayed the start of WWI do you think?

You make it sound like a world war was inevitable? and since there was a second - if this is the case then won't there be a third?

It's possible but tensions were very very high, i think the biggest change that would probably have occurred is Russia. The tension between Russia and Austria could have been somewhat lessened which may have resulted in Russia joining the other side (which was a concern in the build up to the war). Another outcome of that may have been the war occurring a few years later when Russia's ground force would have been considerably stronger.

At the time it kinda was.

And while history is "doomed to repeat itself", war on that scale is so much harder to imagine now.



Maybe a matter of months, but it probably wouldn't have started in the middle of winter, so maybe as much as 9/10 months.

Tensions in Europe at that time were very very high - everyone was gagging for a war, pretty much. A significant cause of WWII was the way the world reacted to WWI. Germany was blamed for starting WWI and humiliated into paying huge and unfeasible reparations. In combination with devastating economic problems this paved the way for an extremist like Hitler to gain popular support.

The lesson was learned after WWII and the USA made sure it put a lot of money into European countries (particularly Germany) so that they could recover from the war and come out as allies.

There may or may not be a third world war - we will have to wait and see I suppose.

I agree - lets hope we don't have to find out as WWIII between say USA and Russia could pretty much end all wars & us forever

That's super interesting to think about. Would Germany have won had Russia joined their side?

You make it sound like a world war was inevitable? and since there was a second - if this is the case then won't there be a third?

If that had happened Germany would have had about 500,000 more troops to attack France with, if they had instantly began using their storm trooper tactics then they would probably have crushed France a lot quicker. In all honesty i think Germany would have taken Paris and then began to push for peace, Germany wasn't in any position to be able to enforce a territorial gain into the UK and it's highly unlikely they would have had the ability to enforce any kind of major reparations.

So in my opinion France would be done for however we could have held out on our little island for a long time as our navy was vastly superior at the time. All the while the costs of war would have been eating away at Germany forcing them to the table. I think in the end Germany would agree to peace with a small territory gain towards the west given to them for their victory against the French.

But this is all speculation, such a huge factor changing (Russia being on the other side) would undoubtedly have changed a considerable number of other factors and no one could predict what that could have lead to with any real degree of accuracy.