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why so many rapes/sexual assaults in u.k?
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Original post by wsxcde
What you said is pretty insane tbh and makes no sense. It is as if in your mind you think you should pick 10 homeless black men and compare them to 10 of the worlds richest white men, rather than compare 10 middle class black men to 10 middle class white men.
You really should read up on statistics please.
What you said is pretty insane tbh and makes no sense. It is as if in your mind you think you should pick 10 homeless black men and compare them to 10 of the worlds richest white men, rather than compare 10 middle class black men to 10 middle class white men.
You really should read up on statistics please.
No, you are missing the point and its clear you havent taken a statistics class that focused on causal analysis. Let me explain with an example.
Suppose that people from Azerbaijan have a particular set of cultural/genetic factors which makes them both unlikely to commit crime, and also very intelligent (which leads to a high income). In this case, there is a true causal effect of "Azerbaijan" on crime. Now, if you looked at the raw data you would see that Azerbaijan people commit less crime than those from other countries. But then you might also notice that they have higher incomes, and worry that what you have seen is only correlation rather than causality. If you then controlled for income, the 'low crime' effect would disappear and you would find that Azerbaijan's do not commit crimes at a lower rates than others, because controlling for income destroyed the effect. However in this case your results would clearly be wrong, because in reality there WAS a causal effect.
The basic point is this: if you have two factors X and Y which are both caused by some common factor Z, and you are interested in the causal effect of Z on Y, and your regression model looks like:
Y = a + bZ + ɛ
then introducing X as your control to give "Y = a + bZ + cX + ɛ" will bias your estimate of the coefficient 'b' and lead to you not discovering the causal effect even when it exists
(here "Y = crime, X = income, Z = Azerbaijan", while in the context of this thread "Y = rape, X = income, Z = race"
Basically, it is typically invalid to control for factors which are themselves causally associated with the factor you are trying to measure.
Please read the above 2-3 times because you are making a very fundamental mistake, and from your post I get the feeling you are working in a scientific field so its kind of important you understand this stuff.
(also I just picked the Azerbaijan country at random because its uncontroversial, I'm not claiming they are actually low crime/whatever)
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by slade p
Bologne, they can not commit the amount of rapes that take place. it's mainly by non-immigrants who rape on a late night out due to lad culture.
Your just making claims out of thin air to hide the reality. delude yourself if it makes you feel better but it does not change facts which is presented by the goverment and police.
Your just making claims out of thin air to hide the reality. delude yourself if it makes you feel better but it does not change facts which is presented by the goverment and police.
No it is not. Do not critisie somone else for making up claims and then make up your own claims.
The VAST majority of rapes are not on nights out by "lads" the majority of rapes occur from a perpetrator the victims knows and trusts such as close friends or family members.
http://www.rapecrisis.org.uk/commonmyths2.php
Do us a favour? Stop shovelling bull****.
Original post by poohat
Sorry for your poor understanding of statistics.
gonna pick
Azerbaijan have a particular genetic structure which makes them both unlikely to commit crime, and also very intelligent (which leads to a high income).
as my next character in my rpg game, sounds like a good race to play
Original post by poohat
Sorry for your poor understanding of statistics.
fundamental errors youre making - Someone who recently moved to the UK is originally from Nigeria, because they are black. They are poorer, because they are black. They had a lack of education, because they are black. They committed a rape, because they are black. You should look up spurioius relationships and try to think logically about which relations make sense and which do not. Your view on humans is quite funny, but bad as well, and your view on how to apply statistics to real life situations is quite bad, if you ever did a study you could end up comparing say a group of black refugees to a group of wealthy white people, then saying that you assumed all differences would be a factor of skin colour and considering any other variables would weaken your results lol. You have a wrong idea about experimental controls stuck in your head when you're applying this to real study examples, whereby you'd say for example "black skin makes you x more likely to..." in which case yes you have to remove every single other variable.
Even in your example yes controlling for wealth would make your experiment stronger, for example if azerbaijan is much richer than the UK and people may say "well they obey the law more over there because they're richer and have no need to steal etc". your study would be stronger if you compared crimes committed by 100 people in the UK on £10k a year to 100 people in azerbaijan on £10k a year, 100 people in the UK on £40k a year to 100 people in azerbaijan on £40k a year.. then you could say "even accounting for income, people in azerbaijan are still x more likely to obey the law" and in this case then you have gotten rid of a variable (wealth) and stumbled upon a new variable to be discovered.. why do they still obey the law more?
And this is also the example, most obviously, with skin colour. It is clearly a large error to see this the wrong way around and think that people do something because they are black, as opposed to because of other reasons (e.g. because they are poorer and just so happen to be black, but if their role was switched with a white person they'd be doing the same thing).
What I would guess is that you studied some basic maths but have no practical experience of statistics or anything, so youre trying to apply rules where they practically shouldnt be e.g. wrongly seeing skin colour as the causation of all of the things which are actually the variables
But anyway in response to your original question, this is why people wouldnt want to plaster "blacks are 3.7x more likely to..x" all over the place especially if it's an incriminating thing, because not only would it be detrimental to racial tensions, but it wouldnt even be a fair statistic as it implies/would be interpreted by many that, the cause is the skin colour when this isnt proven anywhere.
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by keladry
No it is not. Do not critisie somone else for making up claims and then make up your own claims.
The VAST majority of rapes are not on nights out by "lads" the majority of rapes occur from a perpetrator the victims knows and trusts such as close friends or family members.
http://www.rapecrisis.org.uk/commonmyths2.php
Do us a favour? Stop shovelling bull****.
The VAST majority of rapes are not on nights out by "lads" the majority of rapes occur from a perpetrator the victims knows and trusts such as close friends or family members.
http://www.rapecrisis.org.uk/commonmyths2.php
Do us a favour? Stop shovelling bull****.
yes I totally forgot about that, that is the main circumstance in which it happens. It further points out to the moral decay in British society that it's mainly from known people.
btw have you ever been sexually assaulted?
Original post by Novascope
It's crazy how these statistics seem to keep on rising...
Obviously rape has always happened over the years, but my take on why it's at such a high today is because of how over sexualised our society is. Sex is everywhere, and unfortunately there are stupid people out there who are so hooked on it that they think they can have it with whoever and whenever they want.
Obviously rape has always happened over the years, but my take on why it's at such a high today is because of how over sexualised our society is. Sex is everywhere, and unfortunately there are stupid people out there who are so hooked on it that they think they can have it with whoever and whenever they want.
No I think it's because more people are willing to report it than they did years ago when many of them wouldn't of been believed and there was a huge rape culture back then.
[QUOTE="p;54619491" slade="slade"]yes I totally forgot about that, that is the main circumstance in which it happens. It further points out to the moral decay in British society that it's mainly from known people.
btw have you ever been sexually assaulted?
Oh yeah, Just casually ask a very sensitive and triggering question.
You clearly due to your attitude do not actually care about the women (and men) it affects most deeply. You're just looking for something to argue about to rile people up and cause a stir.
btw have you ever been sexually assaulted?
Oh yeah, Just casually ask a very sensitive and triggering question.
You clearly due to your attitude do not actually care about the women (and men) it affects most deeply. You're just looking for something to argue about to rile people up and cause a stir.
Original post by keladry
Oh yeah, Just casually ask a very sensitive and triggering question.
You clearly due to your attitude do not actually care about the women (and men) it affects most deeply. You're just looking for something to argue about to rile people up and cause a stir.
You clearly due to your attitude do not actually care about the women (and men) it affects most deeply. You're just looking for something to argue about to rile people up and cause a stir.
I do care if they struggle to get over it and are mentally scarred.
Original post by ngb9320
I wonder what percent of men have experienced sexual assault
It would be much less, only a few percent of all the assaults will be on men.
Original post by Novascope
It's crazy how these statistics seem to keep on rising...
Obviously rape has always happened over the years, but my take on why it's at such a high today is because of how over sexualised our society is. Sex is everywhere, and unfortunately there are stupid people out there who are so hooked on it that they think they can have it with whoever and whenever they want.
Obviously rape has always happened over the years, but my take on why it's at such a high today is because of how over sexualised our society is. Sex is everywhere, and unfortunately there are stupid people out there who are so hooked on it that they think they can have it with whoever and whenever they want.
I feel like it's also rising because more people are coming forward - it's becoming less daunting for men and women to come forward to say that they have been abused or raped with the cases of Rotherham and high profile ones such as Cyril Smith and Jimmy Savile, rather than the rape rate actually rising. Back in the 70s for example, these cases were silenced to protect the reputations of MPs and others, and now seeing people who did abuse people put behind bars, or successfully exposed, people are coming forward, as they feel as if it's more likely that there will be a conviction.
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by slade p
I do care if they struggle to get over it and are mentally scarred.
Sure.
Original post by wsxcde
fundamental errors youre making - Someone who recently moved to the UK is originally from Nigeria, because they are black. They are poorer, because they are black. They had a lack of education, because they are black. They committed a rape, because they are black. You should look up spurioius relationships and try to think logically about which relations make sense and which do not. Your view on humans is quite funny, but bad as well, and your view on how to apply statistics to real life situations is quite bad, if you ever did a study you could end up comparing say a group of black refugees to a group of wealthy white people, then saying that you assumed all differences would be a factor of skin colour and considering any other variables would weaken your results lol. You have a wrong idea about experimental controls stuck in your head when you're applying this to real study examples, whereby you'd say for example "black skin makes you x more likely to..." in which case yes you have to remove every single other variable.
You are failing to understand that there are specific reasons _why_ certain people are more likely to be poor (and no it isnt 'racism'), and that these reasons may also be connected to their high crime/rape rate.
Lets flip the situation - Chinese people in the UK are, on average, high income and very low crime. But these two things are not unconnected - it is almost certainly a combination of Chinese culture/work ethic/genetics which causes both. It would be totally invalid to control for income in this situation, for the reasons I said above - namely that the same factors which are causing the high income are largely the same factors which are causing the low crime rate.
And this is also the example, most obviously, with skin colour. It is clearly a large error to see this the wrong way around and think that people do something because they are black, as opposed to because of other reasons (e.g. because they are poorer and just so happen to be black, but if their role was switched with a white person they'd be doing the same thing).
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by Rory :)
It's the Muslim grooming gangs.
They are more horrific and vile but they would only account for a small amount of the rapes.
Original post by wsxcde
Thats a 100% lie and an unfounded attack against muslims.
Actual stats - https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/269399/Race-and-cjs-2012.pdf
Vast majority of crime is committed by white UK nationals and not immigrants. Try again delusional racist.
Actual stats - https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/269399/Race-and-cjs-2012.pdf
Vast majority of crime is committed by white UK nationals and not immigrants. Try again delusional racist.
White people make up the majority of the UK so it's hardly surprising that the majority of crimes are committed by white people.
Secondly, I skimmed this but the chart I was looking at indicated that the majority of SEXUALLY MOTIVATED CRIMES are committed by Asian or mixed ethnic groups despite white people making up the majority of the UK population.
Posted from TSR Mobile
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by poohat
You are failing to understand that there are specific reasons _why_ blacks are more likely to be poor (and no it isnt 'racism'), and that these reasons may also be connected to their high crime rate.
Lets flip the situation - Chinese people in the UK are, on average, high income and very low crime. But these two things are not unconnected - it is almost certainly a combination Chinese culture/work ethic/genetics which causes both. It would be totally invalid to control for income in this situation, for the reasons I said above - namely that the same factors which are causing the high income are largely the same factors which are causing the low crime rate.
Lets flip the situation - Chinese people in the UK are, on average, high income and very low crime. But these two things are not unconnected - it is almost certainly a combination Chinese culture/work ethic/genetics which causes both. It would be totally invalid to control for income in this situation, for the reasons I said above - namely that the same factors which are causing the high income are largely the same factors which are causing the low crime rate.
you have strange opinions of ethnicity in your head. People are not very different like you make out. There is far more diversity between people than between ethnicities, that is there is a black person you have more in common with on many levels (neurobiological or what you like) than white people. It makes me laugh a bit, like I said before it really sounds like you view people so differenly they're like unique races for an RPG game with different unique traits and things to make them stand out. But in reality it's not the case, and all these things you are thinking are coming from ethnicity or genetics are not. Even something you may view as striking as skin colour is simply amount of melanin which is just on a slider for everyone. It is true that humans spread out and lived in their own isolated groups for a time, and some evolutionary differences are present, such as europeans evolving to be able to process dairy, but there are not significant difference to the extent you're thinking of, certainly not in terms of personality/intelligence/likelyhood to commit crime etc.
Say if what you said about chinese having high income and low crime in the UK is correct. This is not some inherent trait at all. Many Chinese people study, hard, in China many families have only one child and they devote a lot more time to their child, push their children to succeed a lot more and are more concerned with academic success. A good number of Chinese people who are working in the UK might have studied in the UK, which means a well off family sending them to University abroad (and probably more expectations/pressure for their results.)... Low crime can be linked to both the stricter upbringing, and the fact they are well off and crime is more associated with poverty... now if you put white people in the same position, born to these chinese parents, you could expect to see a similar pattern.
So now with chinese people then yes you would want to get rid of the wealth variable and focus on a variable to study which is only actually accounting for the situation e.g. are single children with high academic pressure more likely to earn more and commit less crime..
Original post by miscounted_time
White people make up the majority of the UK so it's hardly surprising that the majority of crimes are committed by white people.
Secondly, I skimmed this but the chart I was looking at indicated that the majority of SEXUALLY MOTIVATED CRIMES are committed by Asian or mixed ethnic groups despite white people making up the majority of the UK population.
Posted from TSR Mobile
Secondly, I skimmed this but the chart I was looking at indicated that the majority of SEXUALLY MOTIVATED CRIMES are committed by Asian or mixed ethnic groups despite white people making up the majority of the UK population.
Posted from TSR Mobile
you didnt read it properly and yeah i know that it is not surprising that the majority of rapes are committed by whites, I linked that specifically to someone who said "the vast majority of rapes are caused by muslim immigrants"
Original post by poohat
The phrase "just so happen" is where you are going wrong. People do not "just happen" to be poor - there are many cognitive/personality traits which greatly increase the chance that a person will be poor, and some of these traits are also connected with a higher propensity to commit crimes.
The phrase "just so happen" is where you are going wrong. People do not "just happen" to be poor - there are many cognitive/personality traits which greatly increase the chance that a person will be poor, and some of these traits are also connected with a higher propensity to commit crimes.
You would have to conduct an entirely seperate study on what causes people to be poor, and you may link this in with the study of poverty increasing crime. Or you'd just find another study already done on what causes poverty and link it into your one about poverty causing crime.. IF you wanted to. But yeah a lot of people do just so happen to be poor, what are you going to do if you find yourself born with aids in a hut made of dung? Hope you've got a really good personality?
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