SNP choice of Labour or Conservative as coalition partners
For anyone following the upcoming General Election, it appears the SNP will play a pivotal role in determining whether the next Coalition government (and that looks quite inevitable now) will be lead by either Labour or the Conservatives.
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
My gut tells me that, given the choice, the SNP are more likely to opt for Labour as the lesser of two evils. Setting aside their animosity, they do align more with their left wing values. Then again, rivalry with Labour might be one push towards them picking the Conservatives instead.
My personal preference would be for a Labour/SNP coalition over a Conservative/SNP one. The reason being that ruthless Conservative austerity is having too many negative impacts on the less fortunate for it to be desirable for another 5 years, in my view.
So, what are your thoughts? Sticking with these two options of a Labour/SNP coalition or a Conservative/SNP coalition:
1) Which outcome do you see as more likely?
2) Which outcome would you prefer?
(I know, I know, British politics is a mucking fess.)
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
My gut tells me that, given the choice, the SNP are more likely to opt for Labour as the lesser of two evils. Setting aside their animosity, they do align more with their left wing values. Then again, rivalry with Labour might be one push towards them picking the Conservatives instead.
My personal preference would be for a Labour/SNP coalition over a Conservative/SNP one. The reason being that ruthless Conservative austerity is having too many negative impacts on the less fortunate for it to be desirable for another 5 years, in my view.
So, what are your thoughts? Sticking with these two options of a Labour/SNP coalition or a Conservative/SNP coalition:
1) Which outcome do you see as more likely?
2) Which outcome would you prefer?
(I know, I know, British politics is a mucking fess.)
Scroll to see replies
Usually, any party would go for whatever gets them personal power. You would see a Labour-UKIP-Green coalition if it meant they'd all get in power.
The SNP may have enough momentum to feel like they can afford to not get into power this term, in which case they'd only go with Labour. Pretty much all the non-racist parties hate the Conservatives (something which we saw in the AV vote, where the only ones against AV were the Conservatives and the dodgy racist parties) and given a choice would go Labour.
This includes the Lib Dems, who would see the decision to rejoin the Conservatives as a last resort given the Tories are so unpopular that they can't even get a democratic majority in 4 elections against post-war Blair, Brown and Milliband. In a row. They'd rather try and get the rub off Labour's relative popularity.
But if Conservatives and Labour have equal seats, and SNP decides, they'll go with Labour every time.
The SNP may have enough momentum to feel like they can afford to not get into power this term, in which case they'd only go with Labour. Pretty much all the non-racist parties hate the Conservatives (something which we saw in the AV vote, where the only ones against AV were the Conservatives and the dodgy racist parties) and given a choice would go Labour.
This includes the Lib Dems, who would see the decision to rejoin the Conservatives as a last resort given the Tories are so unpopular that they can't even get a democratic majority in 4 elections against post-war Blair, Brown and Milliband. In a row. They'd rather try and get the rub off Labour's relative popularity.
But if Conservatives and Labour have equal seats, and SNP decides, they'll go with Labour every time.
Both would be foolish to go in a coalition with the SNP, come 2020 it would destroy the Conservative or Labour vote in England and Wales
Original post by Mequa
For anyone following the upcoming General Election, it appears the SNP will play a pivotal role in determining whether the next Coalition government (and that looks quite inevitable now) will be lead by either Labour or the Conservatives.
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
The SNP have said they would support a Labour Government and actively try to bring down a Conservative government.
The Conservatives have already completely ruled out working with the SNP, so that's pretty much decided.
Original post by offhegoes
1) SNP/Labour
2) SNP/Labour
The SNP would lose all credibility in Scotland if it formed a coalition with the Conservatives.
2) SNP/Labour
The SNP would lose all credibility in Scotland if it formed a coalition with the Conservatives.
To be fair, I think they could go into coalition with Satan himself without taking much of a hit at the polls right now. They're a nationalist movement - they've done a lot of things that might sink other political parties, but they're simply not held to account in the same way. Their following does not see politics in those terms.
It's a well-worn point, but the SNP worked closely with the Conservatives in the Scottish Parliament to keep their 2007-11 administration going. No-one minded. They formed a coalition with the Conservatives in a Scottish council to keep the largest party, Labour, out. No-one minded.
If you go to virtually any hustings even in Scotland nowadays, you'll see the Labour candidate shouted down by SNP supporters. They rarely even bother about the Conservatives - and it's not just down to their electoral prospects. I genuinely think most of their supporters now hate Labour more - and polling shows they're fairly ambivalent about who'll be the next Prime Minister.
Scotland's changed a lot in the past few years.
Original post by I'm a Bad Boy
Both would be foolish to go in a coalition with the SNP, come 2020 it would destroy the Conservative or Labour vote in England and Wales
If Boris is leader, Conservatives will win regardless because he's funny.
But it wouldn't be foolish if it gave them power. Why turn down a guaranteed 5 years so that you might get 5 years next time, or might not? Look at the Lib Dems. Once Clegg is gone and UKIP die down, Lib Dem vote will go back up. They got 5 years, which was a pipe dream almost 5 years ago. They may even get more.
You have to remember these are people living their own lives, they only get one life, and they're going to get as much out of it as possible. You look out for yourself first, before you help others. If they get a chance to be in power, they'll take it any way possible, because it might not happen again.
Original post by Mequa
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
The SNP won't join an official Coalition but they are more likely to vote with a Labour-led government to get its main bills through, as a way of locking out the Conservatives.
They will never vote with the Conservatives they hate them.
The whole argument for Scottish independence is based on the argument that Scotland hates the Conservatives but has for many years had to be ruled by Conservative governments elected mainly by southern English voters.
While Scotland is part of the UK, the SNP will do whatever they can to block a Conservative government, which is why the Conservatives are in such a panic about the SNP at the moment.
Labour are the SNP main electoral opponent in Scotland so they aren't exactly close allies and won't form a Coalition but they would rather have a minority Labour government so they will vote the same way as Labour in the Commons to get their bills through and block the Conservatives.
Original post by ozzyoscy
If Boris is leader, Conservatives will win regardless because he's funny.
But it wouldn't be foolish if it gave them power. Why turn down a guaranteed 5 years so that you might get 5 years next time, or might not? Look at the Lib Dems. Once Clegg is gone and UKIP die down, Lib Dem vote will go back up. They got 5 years, which was a pipe dream almost 5 years ago. They may even get more.
You have to remember these are people living their own lives, they only get one life, and they're going to get as much out of it as possible. You look out for yourself first, before you help others. If they get a chance to be in power, they'll take it any way possible, because it might not happen again.
But it wouldn't be foolish if it gave them power. Why turn down a guaranteed 5 years so that you might get 5 years next time, or might not? Look at the Lib Dems. Once Clegg is gone and UKIP die down, Lib Dem vote will go back up. They got 5 years, which was a pipe dream almost 5 years ago. They may even get more.
You have to remember these are people living their own lives, they only get one life, and they're going to get as much out of it as possible. You look out for yourself first, before you help others. If they get a chance to be in power, they'll take it any way possible, because it might not happen again.
It could easily be the last five years they ever have, if the SNP get into a coalition with Labour, British politics will became an England and Wales vs Scotland situation, literally everybody in England and Wales would be voting Tory or UKIP to get them out, and Labour might never recover.
Original post by I'm a Bad Boy
It could easily be the last five years they ever have, if the SNP get into a coalition with Labour, British politics will became an England and Wales vs Scotland situation, literally everybody in England and Wales would be voting Tory or UKIP to get them out, and Labour might never recover.
Conservatives haven't won an election for two decades and counting, because Labour is around. They're so despised by so many, and their general policies and demeanour, that they couldn't even post-war Blair, Brown OR Ed. Besides, any backlash only lasts a generation. You're also assuming Labour will be unpopular in 2020, and that UKIP won't have lost momentum in 5 years.
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by ozzyoscy
Conservatives haven't won an election for two decades and counting, because Labour is around. They're so despised by so many, and their general policies and demeanour, that they couldn't even post-war Blair, Brown OR Ed. Besides, any backlash only lasts a generation. You're also assuming Labour will be unpopular in 2020, and that UKIP won't have lost momentum in 5 years.
Labour aren't exactly well liked either, and they will be despised in England and Wales if they agree to go into coalition with SNP, much more than the Conservatives, of course they'll be in unpopular by 2020. UKIP we'll have to see, they have steadily risen in popularity for the last 10 years, and I don't think they've peaked yet. They're going to come second in a lot of seats this year, by 2020 they could be winning those depending on how unsatisfied the country is.
There is also the Scottish independence issue which seems more and more likely to happen now, their nationalism just keeps rising. Once Scotland leaves which I think they will by 2030, Labour could be decimated as a party.
Original post by I'm a Bad Boy
Labour aren't exactly well liked either, and they will be despised in England and Wales if they agree to go into coalition with SNP, much more than the Conservatives, of course they'll be in unpopular by 2020. UKIP we'll have to see, they have steadily risen in popularity for the last 10 years, and I don't think they've peaked yet. They're going to come second in a lot of seats this year, by 2020 they could be winning those depending on how unsatisfied the country is.
There is also the Scottish independence issue which seems more and more likely to happen now, their nationalism just keeps rising. Once Scotland leaves which I think they will by 2030, Labour could be decimated as a party.
There is also the Scottish independence issue which seems more and more likely to happen now, their nationalism just keeps rising. Once Scotland leaves which I think they will by 2030, Labour could be decimated as a party.
Labour have got on fine without Scotland. They're doing it now, and they did it during Blair. Labour would still have got a huge majority in 1997, 2001 and 2005. While funnily enough, the Conservatives would've had no scapegoat after 2010 due to winning outright and would be losing this election very badly, Ed or no Ed, and Labour would be unaffected since Scotland's SNP through and through now anyway.
It's only 50 or so seats, and who knows how it'll be in 5, 10, 15 years. It's impossible to predict, it's a long time and things change drastically. Though the longer UKIP are around, the more chance Labour have of winning elections or making coalitions. They're taking Conservative votes, not Labour ones.
Labour aren't well liked, but the swing voters usually like the Conservatives less, because the swing voters are 'working people', which is who Labour appeal to more often than not.
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by ozzyoscy
Though the longer UKIP are around, the more chance Labour have of winning elections or making coalitions. They're taking Conservative votes, not Labour ones.
Actually in Wales and North England UKIP are predicted to come second behind quite a few Labour seats
Original post by Mequa
For anyone following the upcoming General Election, it appears the SNP will play a pivotal role in determining whether the next Coalition government (and that looks quite inevitable now) will be lead by either Labour or the Conservatives.
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
My gut tells me that, given the choice, the SNP are more likely to opt for Labour as the lesser of two evils. Setting aside their animosity, they do align more with their left wing values. Then again, rivalry with Labour might be one push towards them picking the Conservatives instead.
My personal preference would be for a Labour/SNP coalition over a Conservative/SNP one. The reason being that ruthless Conservative austerity is having too many negative impacts on the less fortunate for it to be desirable for another 5 years, in my view.
So, what are your thoughts? Sticking with these two options of a Labour/SNP coalition or a Conservative/SNP coalition:
1) Which outcome do you see as more likely?
2) Which outcome would you prefer?
(I know, I know, British politics is a mucking fess.)
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
My gut tells me that, given the choice, the SNP are more likely to opt for Labour as the lesser of two evils. Setting aside their animosity, they do align more with their left wing values. Then again, rivalry with Labour might be one push towards them picking the Conservatives instead.
My personal preference would be for a Labour/SNP coalition over a Conservative/SNP one. The reason being that ruthless Conservative austerity is having too many negative impacts on the less fortunate for it to be desirable for another 5 years, in my view.
So, what are your thoughts? Sticking with these two options of a Labour/SNP coalition or a Conservative/SNP coalition:
1) Which outcome do you see as more likely?
2) Which outcome would you prefer?
(I know, I know, British politics is a mucking fess.)
Just so I can repeat everyone else, the Conservatives are the 'Conservative and Unionist Party'. That ideological difference between them and the SNP should be enough to prevent any chance of coalition.
Seeing as Scotland is traditionally a Labour stronghold (mostly), SNP/Labour may be what the country has to suffer. God help us.
Original post by Mequa
For anyone following the upcoming General Election, it appears the SNP will play a pivotal role in determining whether the next Coalition government (and that looks quite inevitable now) will be lead by either Labour or the Conservatives.
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
My gut tells me that, given the choice, the SNP are more likely to opt for Labour as the lesser of two evils. Setting aside their animosity, they do align more with their left wing values. Then again, rivalry with Labour might be one push towards them picking the Conservatives instead.
My personal preference would be for a Labour/SNP coalition over a Conservative/SNP one. The reason being that ruthless Conservative austerity is having too many negative impacts on the less fortunate for it to be desirable for another 5 years, in my view.
So, what are your thoughts? Sticking with these two options of a Labour/SNP coalition or a Conservative/SNP coalition:
1) Which outcome do you see as more likely?
2) Which outcome would you prefer?
(I know, I know, British politics is a mucking fess.)
Latest from Electoral Calculus.
This is interesting, as it appears the SNP are bitter foes with both Labour and the Conservatives. It also looks increasingly likely that they will be put in the position of being forced to choose one of their enemies as a coalition partner in the very near future.
Given that some here are likely more knowledgeable than myself on the relevant issues, I am wondering which you consider SNP are more likely to pick as their senior coalition partner. Conservative or Labour? Cameron or Miliband? Please give reasons to support your stance.
My gut tells me that, given the choice, the SNP are more likely to opt for Labour as the lesser of two evils. Setting aside their animosity, they do align more with their left wing values. Then again, rivalry with Labour might be one push towards them picking the Conservatives instead.
My personal preference would be for a Labour/SNP coalition over a Conservative/SNP one. The reason being that ruthless Conservative austerity is having too many negative impacts on the less fortunate for it to be desirable for another 5 years, in my view.
So, what are your thoughts? Sticking with these two options of a Labour/SNP coalition or a Conservative/SNP coalition:
1) Which outcome do you see as more likely?
2) Which outcome would you prefer?
(I know, I know, British politics is a mucking fess.)
The SNP long ago ruled out a coalition with the Tories, they were by some distance the first party to mention the C-word. It would be political suicide to work with them in any capacity. They have done at Holyrood yes but only with the Tories as a very weak junior partner.
Original post by I'm a Bad Boy
Actually in Wales and North England UKIP are predicted to come second behind quite a few Labour seats
Broadly speaking that does mean they're taking Tory votes. But even so it is true that they are taking Labour votes in these sorts of areas.
Original post by I'm a Bad Boy
Actually in Wales and North England UKIP are predicted to come second behind quite a few Labour seats
That's because UKIP are the alternative in general, but it's the Conservatives they're taking from mostly. If you look at any old poll, you'll notice that whenever Conservatives lose popularity, UKIP gain. When Conservatives gain popularity, UKIP go down. They appeal to the same people in general.
Nicola Sturgeon has repeatedly said she would prop up a Labour government to lock David Cameron out of Downing St. I think from that, we can completely rule out any sort of coalition/agreement between the Conservatives and SNP.
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Original post by thehistorybore
Seeing as Scotland is traditionally a Labour stronghold (mostly), SNP/Labour may be what the country has to suffer. God help us.
Given the backlash to a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition that neither side's voters really wanted, would it not be fair to let the alternative two have a go? You do remember, Boris is coming for 2020, and he's going to destroy everyone unless Labour unleash someone who's similarly adored for his eccentricness and silly hair. If Conservatives were to lose yet another election with Boris, a 6th in a row in such a scenario, then you should accept the Conservatives are so bad at this politic lark that they shouldn't be anywhere near power.
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by ozzyoscy
Usually, any party would go for whatever gets them personal power. You would see a Labour-UKIP-Green coalition if it meant they'd all get in power.
The SNP may have enough momentum to feel like they can afford to not get into power this term, in which case they'd only go with Labour. Pretty much all the non-racist parties hate the Conservatives (something which we saw in the AV vote, where the only ones against AV were the Conservatives and the dodgy racist parties) and given a choice would go Labour.
This includes the Lib Dems, who would see the decision to rejoin the Conservatives as a last resort given the Tories are so unpopular that they can't even get a democratic majority in 4 elections against post-war Blair, Brown and Milliband. In a row. They'd rather try and get the rub off Labour's relative popularity.
But if Conservatives and Labour have equal seats, and SNP decides, they'll go with Labour every time.
The SNP may have enough momentum to feel like they can afford to not get into power this term, in which case they'd only go with Labour. Pretty much all the non-racist parties hate the Conservatives (something which we saw in the AV vote, where the only ones against AV were the Conservatives and the dodgy racist parties) and given a choice would go Labour.
This includes the Lib Dems, who would see the decision to rejoin the Conservatives as a last resort given the Tories are so unpopular that they can't even get a democratic majority in 4 elections against post-war Blair, Brown and Milliband. In a row. They'd rather try and get the rub off Labour's relative popularity.
But if Conservatives and Labour have equal seats, and SNP decides, they'll go with Labour every time.
What on earth has racism got to do with it, especially the AV referendum? What a bizarre correlation you are trying to draw.
The Respect Party, Socialist Party and Communist Party of Britain were all against AV at the time.
Also, you will find that racist and non-racist parties hate the Tories. The BNP certainly hate them. In contrast, the largely non-racist Libertarian Party do not hate them.
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