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EU referendum/Brexit 2016

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If the Greek negotiations are anything to go by,

never accept the first offer from the EU.
Reply 21
Looks like the pro EU socialists have decided that the EU isn't so socialist after all,
I altered my view a bit to a simple conclusion:

We are ****ed when we are in the EU, but we are even more ****ed if we wouldn't be.

I think the UK should just continue with pushing for reform and occasionally breaking EU rules. But leaving the EU is un-economical.
Original post by SotonianOne
I altered my view a bit to a simple conclusion:

We are ****ed when we are in the EU, but we are even more ****ed if we wouldn't be.

I think the UK should just continue with pushing for reform and occasionally breaking EU rules. But leaving the EU is un-economical.


On what basis?

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Original post by Jammy Duel


On the basis that free-trade with Europe is too important to be placed to uncertainty.

I was more convinced when I saw the case of Ukraine - Russia when free trade stopped. Ukraine's economy plummeted because Russia had half their exports.

The arguments from anti-EU campaigners are based on the idea that we will get a free trade deal with anyone we want because we are Britain. That's too optimistic and spontaneous. There isn't a plan and no one from foreign nations approved of one. Those campaigners act as if free trade deals are guaranteed, but they go two ways not one.
Original post by SotonianOne
On the basis that free-trade with Europe is too important to be placed to uncertainty.

I was more convinced when I saw the case of Ukraine - Russia when free trade stopped. Ukraine's economy plummeted because Russia had half their exports.

The arguments from anti-EU campaigners are based on the idea that we will get a free trade deal with anyone we want because we are Britain. That's too optimistic and spontaneous. There isn't a plan and no one from foreign nations approved of one. Those campaigners act as if free trade deals are guaranteed, but they go two ways not one.


I'm still undecided however I actually view trade as one of the stronger skeptic arguments with the caveat that the terms won't be as good (the EU has more leverage as the larger market even if we have a trade deficit with them) and also the notion some have that a free trade treaty protects every job and pound of future investment is absurd.
Original post by SotonianOne
On the basis that free-trade with Europe is too important to be placed to uncertainty.

I was more convinced when I saw the case of Ukraine - Russia when free trade stopped. Ukraine's economy plummeted because Russia had half their exports.

The arguments from anti-EU campaigners are based on the idea that we will get a free trade deal with anyone we want because we are Britain. That's too optimistic and spontaneous. There isn't a plan and no one from foreign nations approved of one. Those campaigners act as if free trade deals are guaranteed, but they go two ways not one.


Kinda what rakas said. And not having free trade isn't particularly good fit either party, but it is worse for the Germans. Or at least they're seen as not good, in reality i fail to actually see what the amazing thing about it given that without it taxes would just shift about
Original post by Rakas21
notion some have that a free trade treaty protects every job and pound of future investment is absurd.


It is, but the notion that Britain will not go through a recession, or even a slump, is equally absurd.

Most of City of London is based on EU free trade, and even short term departure is damaging. So is a lot of manufacturing.

A lot of corporations have personally said that they definitely will be leaving if the UK goes away and there are those who said it is dangerous, which is basically a socially desirable version of "I'm gone."

I do not think that the UK's non-EU future is dire and in poverty, or investment void, but leaving will definitely have extreme short-term impact which simply isn't worth taking, just to prove a point or to stick a middle finger up Brussels.
Reply 28
Pretty much what sotonianone has said regards to the economy.

Euro sceptics like to point out that the same was said about the euro- which would be a very different kettle of fish. Exiting a trading bloc is very different to not accepting a joint currency.
Original post by SotonianOne
It is, but the notion that Britain will not go through a recession, or even a slump, is equally absurd.

Most of City of London is based on EU free trade, and even short term departure is damaging. So is a lot of manufacturing.

A lot of corporations have personally said that they definitely will be leaving if the UK goes away and there are those who said it is dangerous, which is basically a socially desirable version of "I'm gone."

I do not think that the UK's non-EU future is dire and in poverty, or investment void, but leaving will definitely have extreme short-term impact which simply isn't worth taking, just to prove a point or to stick a middle finger up Brussels.


I'm not sure it will be quite that severe or the city will flee (we can almost guarantee that a Tory government would pander to them beyond belief) however I do largely agree.

I see two phases..

1) In the initial aftermath of 2-4 years (especially with exit negotiations ongoing for the first two) I think that we will probably will see perhaps half a million jobs being bled out as European firms will decide their next product will be made in Germany (who will be smart enough to provide some incentives), we'll also see some firms pack up and probably a large decline in EU firm investment while the exit negotiations occur.

2) In the medium to longer term I think we'll enter a second phase where low growth and unemployment starts to recover. The key question though is whether long run gains in employment and growth will be lower or higher than with the EU (I'm really not sure because I think the regulation argument is overdone). I do think the UK can get free treaties with other states though, we were actually invited to an Asian one with Australia a few years ago but had to turn it down due to EU law (although I think its very shallow to think free trade treaties are the thing preventing us exporting more ECT.. Just look at Germany vs UK exports to BRIC nations - 12% vs 5%).
Original post by Rakas21
I'm not sure it will be quite that severe or the city will flee (we can almost guarantee that a Tory government would pander to them beyond belief) however I do largely agree.

I see two phases..

1) In the initial aftermath of 2-4 years (especially with exit negotiations ongoing for the first two) I think that we will probably will see perhaps half a million jobs being bled out as European firms will decide their next product will be made in Germany (who will be smart enough to provide some incentives), we'll also see some firms pack up and probably a large decline in EU firm investment while the exit negotiations occur.

2) In the medium to longer term I think we'll enter a second phase where low growth and unemployment starts to recover. The key question though is whether long run gains in employment and growth will be lower or higher than with the EU (I'm really not sure because I think the regulation argument is overdone). I do think the UK can get free treaties with other states though, we were actually invited to an Asian one with Australia a few years ago but had to turn it down due to EU law (although I think its very shallow to think free trade treaties are the thing preventing us exporting more ECT.. Just look at Germany vs UK exports to BRIC nations - 12% vs 5%).


I see your point. You see, this is why I am really on the peak of the fence.

I would like to see reform as the best choice, but the other two are tough. I get your Germany BRICs point - but the main difference between us and Germany in exports is that Germany's sector composition is one third manufacturing, whereas in the UK it is one fifth. I truly believe that the lack of investment and high taxation has decimated UK manufacturing compared to Germany which gives tax incentives. Nevertheless, it's not something that can be fixed by either staying or leaving EU.

I think a service economy like ours is too vulnerable to external shocks, one of which would be leaving the EU. Germany would be able to absorb it more easily.
Original post by SotonianOne
I see your point. You see, this is why I am really on the peak of the fence.

I would like to see reform as the best choice, but the other two are tough. I get your Germany BRICs point - but the main difference between us and Germany in exports is that Germany's sector composition is one third manufacturing, whereas in the UK it is one fifth. I truly believe that the lack of investment and high taxation has decimated UK manufacturing compared to Germany which gives tax incentives. Nevertheless, it's not something that can be fixed by either staying or leaving EU.

I think a service economy like ours is too vulnerable to external shocks, one of which would be leaving the EU. Germany would be able to absorb it more easily.


Aye. I think the skeptics win on trade and fiscal issues myself but I'm not sold on immigration, workers rights or whether I want to leave a loose alliance to float around the world (for me, I value British power rather than just bring rich but unimportant like Norway).

Completely agree. I also think we've made a mistake not separating ownership and control of firms (not generally an advocate of protectionism. We've sold 440bn worth of firms to foreigners who a lot of the time then shift production to China ECT.. decimating our industry.

Not sure about that. Service economies tend to be more vulnerable to changes in domestic rather than external demand. Of course, that probably means that half a million jobs going would effect us more.
Original post by Davij038
Pretty much what sotonianone has said regards to the economy.

Euro sceptics like to point out that the same was said about the euro- which would be a very different kettle of fish. Exiting a trading bloc is very different to not accepting a joint currency.


They are different. However, a lot of the arguments are similar, and in some cases have even been made by the same people. There are people who fully support EU membership without reforms who also wanted us to join the Euro for similar reasons. It's certainly worth noting.
There are three major points about the EU. The first is that the coming referendum is about the continued existence of the UK as a separate nation. The Lisbon Treaty contained a "time bomb": after November 2014 the UK became governed by the EU Council.

See http://pol-check.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-european-union-what-happens-on-1st.html What happened on 1st November 2014?

The second is that Canada, South Korea etc. pay no tariffs when exporting to the EU. They have signed Free Trade Agreements which allow tariff free exports and imports. The UK pays over £11 billion a year to be a member of a customs union that other countries access for free. The EU referendum is not really about trade, it is about sovereignty.

Finally, the pro-EU lobby are racists of the second kind, they want to crush all diversity in Europe because they are afraid of difference:

[video="youtube;aPYTxb03U08"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPYTxb03U08[/video]

( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPYTxb03U08 )
This type of racist is worse than "white van man", it is state racism supported by middle class people that ends up sanctioning ethnic cleansing etc.
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by SotonianOne
.. But leaving the EU is un-economical.


Did you know that the UK has a £100 BILLION PER ANNUM Balance of Payments deficit with the EU? It is crucifying our economy!

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/balance-of-payments/q3-2014/stb-bop-q3-2014.html#tab-Current-account-with-EU-and-non-EU-countries--Table-C-
Reply 35
Original post by SotonianOne
>

> TTIP must go ahead. If it doesn't I'm not even interested in staying. All those Southern European and Eastern European countries which want to veto it should be kicked out immediately. I would then vote out and prefer the UK to make an independent free trade agreement with the US & Canada.


Like seriously have you looked into this, it will enable corporations to sue the government if they believe they have lost profits due to laws we make, how ridiculous is that, they should have to deal with that to trade in our country. Imagine tobacco companies suing the government due to loss of profits due to the change in packaging, we have nothing to gain from this.
Reply 36
Lol

Dan Hannan Says that political and economic unions have never worked. In that case better break up the UK too.
Original post by Davij038
Lol

Dan Hannan Says that political and economic unions have never worked. In that case better break up the UK too.


Lol! Half the population says we will be better off in the EU when the annual trade deficit with the EU is about £70 billion. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/balance-of-payments/q3-2014/stb-bop-q3-2014.html#tab-Current-account-with-EU-and-non-EU-countries--Table-C- - (the Balance of Payments deficit is £100bn pa)

Even funnier, they shout about Sunderland Nissan being endangered by exit when the EU, yes the EU our great friends and buddies, is about to complete a Free Trade Agreement with Japan that will let the Japanese export direct at no tariff! http://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/knowledge/publications/126682/trade-state-of-play-of-the-negotiations-for-a-eu-japan-free-trade-agreement
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by SotonianOne
And why is Germany the only country to deport EU nationals who are unemployed for more than 6 months? Surely that's against EU rules? (it is)


It isn't. The idea is "free movement of workers", "not free movement of people". Most states tolerate the latter, but that's not what the legislation or its interpretation in the courts says. To remain in an EU state you have to be economically active.
Original post by newpersonage
( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPYTxb03U08 )
This type of racist is worse than "white van man", it is state racism supported by middle class people that ends up sanctioning ethnic cleansing etc.


I think it says "Let's not fight, we can all sit down together and talk".

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