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Was the Scottish referendum and coalition a Tory political plan ?

Did they know the referendum would destroy Labour in Scotland ?

Did they know the coalition would destroy the Lib Dems ?

and banked on winning the 2015 election based off these assumptions ?
Nobody knew the referendum would destroy Labour in Scotland - and certainly not back when it was promised.

I do wonder if the SNP would be in the same place now if Salmond had stayed on after the referendum defeat.
Personally I think they did predict this happening, and played the political game extremely well - they definitely took risks (such as Scotland actually leaving) but they calculated them and used them to their advantage. Also has to be pointed out that one of the reasons Labour lost in England was because the Tories scare-mongered that they'd let the SNP into coalition Government.
I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

Biggest Tory potential win is English Votes for English Laws. That's the ultimate death of Labour.
Original post by SotonianOne
I wouldn't be surprised if they did.
Biggest Tory potential win is English Votes for English Laws. That's the ultimate death of Labour.


Not really. As the SNP love to tell you, Scotland hasn't affected the result of an election for years. NI obviously has different parties, and Wales, although it is more Labour than Tory, has a fair bit of both now. Add Plaid into the equation and if Labour are going to win a majority they'll have to do it in England as well.
Original post by Saracen's Fez
Not really. As the SNP love to tell you, Scotland hasn't affected the result of an election for years. NI obviously has different parties, and Wales, although it is more Labour than Tory, has a fair bit of both now. Add Plaid into the equation and if Labour are going to win a majority they'll have to do it in England as well.


That logic applies to any grouping of constituencies.

Did you know the SNP tell a lot of lies.

What's amazed me is how a political party can make so many blatantly false claims and gain support.
Original post by MatureStudent36
That logic applies to any grouping of constituencies.
Did you know the SNP tell a lot of lies.
What's amazed me is how a political party can make so many blatantly false claims and gain support.


In terms of seats won it is true - nobody is disputing the claim.

Yes, it could apply to any grouping of constituencies, but it is relevant to apply it to England in the context of EVEL.
Original post by Saracen's Fez
In terms of seats won it is true - nobody is disputing the claim.

Yes, it could apply to any grouping of constituencies, but it is relevant to apply it to England in the context of EVEL.


One thing is for sure. Labours poorly thought out devolution activities in the 90s appear to have bitten them in the arse
Reply 8
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c_al
10
Original post by Saracen's Fez
Not really. As the SNP love to tell you, Scotland hasn't affected the result of an election for years. NI obviously has different parties, and Wales, although it is more Labour than Tory, has a fair bit of both now. Add Plaid into the equation and if Labour are going to win a majority they'll have to do it in England as well.


When you say Scotland "hasn't affected the result for years" do you mean 5 years? Because Scotland prevented a conservative majority in 2010.

I believe the Conservatives also got the most votes in England in 2005 as well.
Original post by c_al
When you say Scotland "hasn't affected the result for years" do you mean 5 years? Because Scotland prevented a conservative majority in 2010.

I believe the Conservatives also got the most votes in England in 2005 as well.


Stop that. Never question SNP statements.
Original post by c_al
When you say Scotland "hasn't affected the result for years" do you mean 5 years? Because Scotland prevented a conservative majority in 2010.
I believe the Conservatives also got the most votes in England in 2005 as well.


It didn't stop the Tories getting in though.

Most votes ≠ most seats
Reply 11
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sdotd
17
im just glad tories have a majority now
Original post by democracyforum
Did they know the referendum would destroy Labour in Scotland ?

Did they know the coalition would destroy the Lib Dems ?

and banked on winning the 2015 election based off these assumptions ?


Labour have been in trouble in Scotland for a long time now. Regardless of the referendum, I think it was fairly obvious to almost anyone who follows politics that Labour were going to lose a lot of seats in the election. Of course, the SNP were very successful in mobilising Yes voters, and this was to be somewhat expected, but I don't think that the Tories played the referendum as a game to destroy Labour or the Lib Dems.
Original post by Smack
Labour have been in trouble in Scotland for a long time now. Regardless of the referendum, I think it was fairly obvious to almost anyone who follows politics that Labour were going to lose a lot of seats in the election. Of course, the SNP were very successful in mobilising Yes voters, and this was to be somewhat expected, but I don't think that the Tories played the referendum as a game to destroy Labour or the Lib Dems.


Interestingly tough, the SNP seems to have tapped into voter apathy quite well.they received the same amount of votes in the GE than the referendum. Thy just seem to be quite good at getting their supporters to vote.
Original post by democracyforum
Did they know the referendum would destroy Labour in Scotland ?
Did they know the coalition would destroy the Lib Dems ?
and banked on winning the 2015 election based off these assumptions ?


Originally, no. In the final year, probably.

In 2010-2011 i think they were actually shocked how stable the coalition was and how well they were polling (think ICM had them still averaging 37% in 2011). In 2012-2013 i think that they expected what they got in terms of hate but always thought that they could tie their fortunes to the economy which came good. In 2014 the referendum gifted them a Labour defeat in Scotland and the idiots in the Lib Dems gifted them by decrying the Tories as nasty which meant that anybody pleased with the coalition was bound to go blue. Factors like the SNP saying they'd support Labour also helped a lot.
No, Labour veering off so far to the right to become the tory lite party caused it.
Labour didn't offer a meaningful alternative to the conservatives. They supported austerity ffs and people still claim that Labour are a left wing party.

Labour lost Scotland, which in turn allowed the tory press to whip up fears in England about the SNP.
Original post by Bornblue
No, Labour veering off so far to the right to become the tory lite party caused it.
Labour didn't offer a meaningful alternative to the conservatives. They supported austerity ffs and people still claim that Labour are a left wing party.

Labour lost Scotland, which in turn allowed the tory press to whip up fears in England about the SNP.


Well yes, but that was all very predictable and clear it was going to happen - it's the Tories who engineered the situation where they could re-enforce that by sharing an anti-independence platform with them, allow the SNP to surge and the whip up fear. Whatever you think of their ideologies, the current crop of Conservatives are much smarter political schemers - Labour realllly need a bit of Campbell back :tongue:
What's their plan to destroy UKIP ?

the referendum ?
Reply 18
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laridum
2
Original post by democracyforum

Did they know the coalition would destroy the Lib Dems ?


Yes. David Cameron has always tried to brand himself as a "liberal Conservative" and has apparently had ideas of assimilating the Lib Dems - it's why some Lib Dem were weary of a coalition (i.e. Lib Dems have always supported collaboration and co-operative politics, but this caused them hesitated with the Tories).

Original post by Green_Pink
Well yes, but that was all very predictable and clear it was going to happen - it's the Tories who engineered the situation where they could re-enforce that by sharing an anti-independence platform with them, allow the SNP to surge and the whip up fear. Whatever you think of their ideologies, the current crop of Conservatives are much smarter political schemers - Labour realllly need a bit of Campbell back :tongue:


Yeah, very smart of the Conservative and "Unionist" Party to throw the union under a bus to win a couple of political points.
(edited 8 years ago)
Reply 19
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L i b
19
Original post by Smack
Labour have been in trouble in Scotland for a long time now. Regardless of the referendum, I think it was fairly obvious to almost anyone who follows politics that Labour were going to lose a lot of seats in the election. Of course, the SNP were very successful in mobilising Yes voters, and this was to be somewhat expected, but I don't think that the Tories played the referendum as a game to destroy Labour or the Lib Dems.


Quite. When this was the outcome of the 2011 Scottish elections based on the first-past-the-post constituencies, I think it was obvious Labour were going to face quite a kicking--



Labour's declines in Scotland and England are actually pretty similar, despite how keen commentators are to separate them. In both cases, there's ranting from the extremes - but in each case, the real problem was the normal, everyday people who don't spend their time on Twitter just didn't think Labour presented a serious alternative government.
(edited 8 years ago)

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