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Next recession will hit London/Britain within 18 months

So my sister works at one of the largest asset management groups in London. She overheard the CIO of Europe for her company talk about his decision over the phone not to buy a flat in London, Victoria, because he was sent information from the IMF, World Bank, and other major financial institutions suggesting that there may be a recession within 1-to-2 years.

So what does everyone think of this. Do you believe it or not?

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So...

You heard from someone else that they heard from someone else that they were told by someone else that this MAY happen...

Okay...
Original post by driftawaay
So...

You heard from someone else that they heard from someone else that they were told by someone else that this MAY happen...

Okay...


Conspiracy theories :biggrin:
Reply 3
Avatar for Dore37
Dore37
7
I don't think so to be honest .. Greece is very slowly getting sorted, everything is slowly getting better. Although with a conservative government, the poor will probably be poorer and homelessness is already rising, while the rich get richer. But a recession? I can't buy it.
Original post by driftawaay
So...

You heard from someone else that they heard from someone else that they were told by someone else that this MAY happen...

Okay...


It's time to drift away.
Original post by lllllllllll
So my sister works at one of the largest asset management groups in London. She overheard the CIO of Europe for her company talk about his decision over the phone not to buy a flat in London, Victoria, because he was sent information from the IMF, World Bank, and other major financial institutions suggesting that there may be a recession within 1-to-2 years.

So what does everyone think of this. Do you believe it or not?


One thing is for sure, there will be another major recession. There was one in 1987, 1993, 2001, 2007 so we are probably due one.

There is also a case for saying that the U.S. Will pop under massive debt.

No one knows when. People can only speculate.

From an investment management perspective the rule of mixed portfolio applies.


Posted from TSR Mobile
Original post by Juichiro
It's time to drift away.


As always, you should take your own advice.
I also heard that the world was going to end in 2012.
its-happening-gif-240x180.png

Yeah no, if they could predict that far ahead, they'd at least *try* to stop it
Original post by driftawaay
As always, you should take your own advice.


You assume I haven't? :smile:
God Labour must be desperate if they have hired you
Original post by Juichiro
You assume I haven't? :smile:


No, you have not. You are still in the thread, replying to me. :smile:
Analysts have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions :P
Reply 13
Avatar for Dore37
Dore37
7
Original post by EHZ17
Analysts have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions :P


9 out of the last 5?? I hope you're not studying maths ..
The UK does have a lot of issues;
1) Uncertainty regarding Europe status. The financial impact of leaving could be huge due to the hit the financial sector would take. Then again, leaving the EU will save a pretty penny and it isn't exactly covering itself in glory with the Greece and immigration problems. Nevertheless it is a cause for concern for many businesses, not just the financial sector.

2) The housing crisis is a huge problem. If interests rates don't rise house prices will only increase. If they do then the housing bubble may well burst AGAIN. While prices rise so high all that happens is the poorer hand over more and more to the rich. This hits their disposable income hard-and takes money out of the economy (as instead of being spent and thus providing jobs and income it goes into the bank of a landlord). The rich are less likely to spend, and more likely to save/buy properties than those less well off.

The problem? Interest rates are kept low to encourage spending and borrowing to spend. Savings are also not very valuable as they earn no interest. Now though we have a situation that kind of doesn't work imo.

That said London is a safer bet than anywhere else in the UK. The crazy rent you can get in from a flat also makes them a good investment.
Original post by Dore37
9 out of the last 5?? I hope you're not studying maths ..


Or maybe you don't understand the point
What they are probably talking about is, I assume, going to be based of the reasoning that is also given in this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html

It cites the slow down in China and considers that while it is publishing growth of 7% still it's real economy is going to be a hell of a lot weaker than that, not least because the central bank is doing everything it can to try to boost the economy, not least slashing interest rates and devaluing money. It also has massive slumps in exports, so China is at the end of it's boom. And the house price is crashing

Then the price of commodities has also crashed

The resource sector is facing a credit crisis due to the low commodity prices

The Tiger economies as a whole are beginning to falter and the central banks are losing control

Libor is heading up and debt yields are falling

Interest rates are stuck at record lows

WE are in a massive bull market, 77th month, the only times we have gone on longer runes was before the bursting of the dot com bubble and before the crash of 1929, there was also a rather long run before the 2008 crash, so there is the prospect of either a bear market at best, what would be expected, or perhaps even a downright crash if given the push from a collapse in Asia.

Finally, the markets are overpriced, looking at the US market it's Shiller CAPE for the S&P 500 is at 27.2 vs a historic average of 16.6. Much like long bull markets, this can be an indicator of an incoming crash. For reference, there have only been three times since 1882 where it was higher, one again, leading up the the 1929 crash, the bursting of the dot com bubble and in 2007 before the last crash.

-----------

Hopefully, it's just pessimism and fear-mongering to sell a headline (admittedly in the business section rather than main headline), but there may be truth in the suggestions.
(edited 8 years ago)
Reply 17
Avatar for Pulse.
Pulse.
18
Damn, timed perfectly to coincide with the time I graduate.

Posted from TSR Mobile
Original post by lllllllllll
So my sister works at one of the largest asset management groups in London. She overheard the CIO of Europe for her company talk about his decision over the phone not to buy a flat in London, Victoria, because he was sent information from the IMF, World Bank, and other major financial institutions suggesting that there may be a recession within 1-to-2 years.

So what does everyone think of this. Do you believe it or not?


Considering the only people who have been saying that so far are Tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theory nuts who have to quote press TV or Russia today.

I'm hazarding a guess your sister doesn't work for a large asset management company in London either.
Original post by Dore37
9 out of the last 5?? I hope you're not studying maths ..


Nah you don't deserve that rep look up Paul Samuelson
(edited 8 years ago)

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