Next recession will hit London/Britain within 18 months
Scroll to see replies
Long overdue and London WAY overpriced.
Can't wait!
Can't wait!
Original post by Dore37
9 out of the last 5?? I hope you're not studying maths ..
Hope you're not studying discourse analysis.
Original post by lllllllllll
So my sister works at one of the largest asset management groups in London. She overheard the CIO of Europe for her company talk about his decision over the phone not to buy a flat in London, Victoria, because he was sent information from the IMF, World Bank, and other major financial institutions suggesting that there may be a recession within 1-to-2 years.
So what does everyone think of this. Do you believe it or not?
So what does everyone think of this. Do you believe it or not?
Why would the IMF and World Bank send the CIO for Europe that info?
CIO ain't got no time for dat.
Original post by i<3milkshake
That said London is a safer bet than anywhere else in the UK. The crazy rent you can get in from a flat also makes them a good investment.
The yield there is pretty much the lowest in the UK. How is that kinda crazy a 'good thing'?
Original post by driftawaay
No, you have not. You are still in the thread, replying to me. 
I meant drifting away from London.
We are already in a recession
Original post by Quady
The yield there is pretty much the lowest in the UK. How is that kinda crazy a 'good thing'?
The yield may be quite low but 1) the properties tend to increase in value hugely. That adds a huge amount onto the total return of the investment.
Property in Newcastle five years ago;
Purchased for £500,000, still worth £500,000 (discounted for inflation etc).
Property in SW1 bought five years ago;
Purchases £500,000 now worth £800,000. SW1 where the OP mentions has seen prices go up by over 40% in the last five years-check Zoopla if you don't believe me.
That is your money back already.
"Yield" when it comes to rent is different. Yes, London is quite low. 3-4% for the most expensive areas. But when you look how prices have risen it changes things.
Original post by FlyingNinja1
We are already in a recession
Ummmm, do you even know what a recession is? We haven't been in recession since the end of Q2 2009.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Ummmm, do you even know what a recession is? We haven't been in recession since the end of Q2 2009.
There is so much unemployment we might as well be in recession. And our growth is so bad we might as well be in a recession. Officially we might not be in a recession but we are experiencing all the effects of it right now
Original post by FlyingNinja1
There is so much unemployment we might as well be in recession. And our growth is so bad we might as well be in a recession. Officially we might not be in a recession but we are experiencing all the effects of it right now
Ummmmm What the hell are you going on about, what year are you in?
Original post by Jammy Duel
Ummmmm What the hell are you going on about, what year are you in?
13
Original post by i<3milkshake
The yield may be quite low but 1) the properties tend to increase in value hugely. That adds a huge amount onto the total return of the investment.
Property in Newcastle five years ago;
Purchased for £500,000, still worth £500,000 (discounted for inflation etc).
Property in SW1 bought five years ago;
Purchases £500,000 now worth £800,000. SW1 where the OP mentions has seen prices go up by over 40% in the last five years-check Zoopla if you don't believe me.
That is your money back already.
"Yield" when it comes to rent is different. Yes, London is quite low. 3-4% for the most expensive areas. But when you look how prices have risen it changes things.
Property in Newcastle five years ago;
Purchased for £500,000, still worth £500,000 (discounted for inflation etc).
Property in SW1 bought five years ago;
Purchases £500,000 now worth £800,000. SW1 where the OP mentions has seen prices go up by over 40% in the last five years-check Zoopla if you don't believe me.
That is your money back already.
"Yield" when it comes to rent is different. Yes, London is quite low. 3-4% for the most expensive areas. But when you look how prices have risen it changes things.
You cannot assume those kind of price increases will continue into the future.
Original post by FlyingNinja1
13
I was more thinking calendar year if you think we are in a period of weak growth with terrible unemployment.
Well, if China's economy tanks, I wouldn't be surprised if that sends global markets into a frenzy.
QUOTE=The_Mighty_Bush;58607969]You cannot assume those kind of price increases will continue into the future.
You can make an educated guess. When you have London that;
1) Has most of the high paying jobs in the UK
2) Is one of the most desirable places in the world, and attracts many foreign investors
3) Has this property in one of the most desirable regions in London
4) London is incredibly overpopulated and this will push up property prices
5) Mass immigration sees a disproportionate amount go to London, only adding to this.
6) Is seeing infrastructure such as an extra runway talked about whilst the Midlands still sees trains that were actually old buses going around (Pacers)
7) The economy of the rest of the country is not doing that well really-London will only become more desirable
All leads me to think there will be massive rises in the future in terms of value. What they will be all property is speculation, but you can make an educated guess.
So high rent in and seeing your property rise is win win in reference to the OP.
You can make an educated guess. When you have London that;
1) Has most of the high paying jobs in the UK
2) Is one of the most desirable places in the world, and attracts many foreign investors
3) Has this property in one of the most desirable regions in London
4) London is incredibly overpopulated and this will push up property prices
5) Mass immigration sees a disproportionate amount go to London, only adding to this.
6) Is seeing infrastructure such as an extra runway talked about whilst the Midlands still sees trains that were actually old buses going around (Pacers)
7) The economy of the rest of the country is not doing that well really-London will only become more desirable
All leads me to think there will be massive rises in the future in terms of value. What they will be all property is speculation, but you can make an educated guess.
So high rent in and seeing your property rise is win win in reference to the OP.
Original post by Quady
Why would the IMF and World Bank send the CIO for Europe that info?
CIO ain't got no time for dat.
CIO ain't got no time for dat.
Hmm close friends I guess?
He chose not to buy an apartment in Victoria because he thinks this will happen.
Original post by FlyingNinja1
There is so much unemployment we might as well be in recession. And our growth is so bad we might as well be in a recession. Officially we might not be in a recession but we are experiencing all the effects of it right now
You're thinking of 2008.
Original post by Jammy Duel
I was more thinking calendar year if you think we are in a period of weak growth with terrible unemployment.
I know the official figures seem good but in reality the unemployment seems to be very high. At least in London in unemployment rate is high. Since a huge part of the UK does agriculture (Scotland, Wales, SW England etc.) the figure for UK doesnt seem that high because all those people are employed. But in the main cities where there arent any jobs in primary sectors, there is unemployment.
Original post by FlyingNinja1
I know the official figures seem good but in reality the unemployment seems to be very high. At least in London in unemployment rate is high. Since a huge part of the UK does agriculture (Scotland, Wales, SW England etc.) the figure for UK doesnt seem that high because all those people are employed. But in the main cities where there arent any jobs in primary sectors, there is unemployment.
Okay, I have the figures for Feb, so very slightly out of date but the change since then has been relatively small
Then why is the unemployment rate in London only 6.2% vs an average of 5.6%? That isn't that great a difference
Okay, so you're claiming that urban unemployment is high because there aren't many jobs in the primary sector, a sector that makes up only a few percent of the UK job market and economy, did you miss KS3 geography? Even in areas with large primary sectors you're still looking at low double digits.
Did you not ay something about slow growth too? Predicted to be the fastest G7 grower again doesn't strike me as slow.
Over an 18 month time scale a lot can happen and it wouldn't be the biggest shock ever if there was a recession.
That would be really bad timing for the government when trying to fight the EU referendum, the likelihood is it would drive more people towards an "Out" vote and Cameron would be under a lot of pressure from within his own party, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a leadership challenge.
Also the Conservative government's policy response if a recession hits will be limited: they are going to want to continue to squeeze down the size of the state with public sector cuts and if falling tax revenues start to push up the deficit they will have to cut faster to hit their targets which will risk prolonging the recession. They would basically have to let the recession work its way out of the system which could take a number of years and push close to the 2020 election. It was one thing explaining flat growth and pain from 2010-13 as "hard decisions following the mess from Labour's recession" but the Conservatives would be blamed for any recession in 2017, especially one that lingered.
This is why some Tory commentators are wary of getting too triumphalistic about Labour electing Corbyn. If there is a recession that lingers, a lot of people will trip by default in to "anyone but the Tories" which will give Labour a lot of votes no matter who is leader. So the idea of a Corbyn government isn't unfeasible.
That would be really bad timing for the government when trying to fight the EU referendum, the likelihood is it would drive more people towards an "Out" vote and Cameron would be under a lot of pressure from within his own party, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a leadership challenge.
Also the Conservative government's policy response if a recession hits will be limited: they are going to want to continue to squeeze down the size of the state with public sector cuts and if falling tax revenues start to push up the deficit they will have to cut faster to hit their targets which will risk prolonging the recession. They would basically have to let the recession work its way out of the system which could take a number of years and push close to the 2020 election. It was one thing explaining flat growth and pain from 2010-13 as "hard decisions following the mess from Labour's recession" but the Conservatives would be blamed for any recession in 2017, especially one that lingered.
This is why some Tory commentators are wary of getting too triumphalistic about Labour electing Corbyn. If there is a recession that lingers, a lot of people will trip by default in to "anyone but the Tories" which will give Labour a lot of votes no matter who is leader. So the idea of a Corbyn government isn't unfeasible.
Quick Reply
Latest
Trending
Last reply 2 days ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 2 days ago
Is it true that British unis are prejudiced towards degrees from Scottish unis?Last reply 2 days ago
If the Russell Group was now a fair representation of what it still claims to beLast reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 2 weeks ago
Research Rankings of universities if you add Research Quality & Intensity percentagesLast reply 1 month ago
Is University of Birmingham prestigious and respected well enough in UK ?Trending
Last reply 2 days ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 2 days ago
Is it true that British unis are prejudiced towards degrees from Scottish unis?Last reply 2 days ago
If the Russell Group was now a fair representation of what it still claims to beLast reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 2 weeks ago
Research Rankings of universities if you add Research Quality & Intensity percentagesLast reply 1 month ago
Is University of Birmingham prestigious and respected well enough in UK ?
