I realise this post is old but I called Exeter today and I'm quite confused.
Basically, they did say they put people in tiers 1 to 4 depending on their predictions, with those with A*A*A* being in tier 1 and those with AAA in tier 4. I'm applying with achieved A Levels and had A*AA and, according to the guy on the phone, applying with achieved A Levels bumps you up a tier so I'd be placed in tier 2 rather than tier 3.
With the UKCAT, he said something that truly shocked me: after months of believing that Exeter used a mechanistic UKCAT cut-off, I was told that this is entirely dependent on how many applicants there are in each tier that year. He explained this by telling me that 450 interviews are given and that, if there were fewer applicants than expected in tiers 1 and 2, those applicants wouldn't even have their UKCAT score looked at and it would only be used if there were more people in a tier than the number of interviews they wanted to give out.
So yeah, I'm back on square one.
I'd more or less sworn off Exeter after getting a substandard UKCAT score (just under 600 average Band 2) but I'm torn now. He repeatedly said that there's no guarantee in this process. I really like the university but the risk is so huge... If tier 2 is oversubscribed and a cut-off is imposed, there's no way I'm going to make it with my mediocre UKCAT score.