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These Oxbridge courses are a joke...

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Original post by jneill
I have extracted the Oxford and Cambridge data from that source (thanks again!). But can a statistician explain what this is actually saying...

Screen Shot 2015-09-09 at 09.55.58.jpg

Specifically which data point shows the correlation?


I imagine the "sig" box gives the predictive significance of each result, though I could be wrong. That sounds suspicious though considering that Oxford has "0 significance" for both GSCE and AS
Original post by Plagioclase
Oxford says that their research shows that GCSE performance is a better indicator of potential for their courses than AS results - I doubt they'd be making that up since it's in their interest to get the best applicants!
I don't think I've ever seen Oxford actually say this.

Original post by Plagioclase
Actually, I have just found some data. If you compare the correlation coefficients between Oxford and Cambridge in this data, you'll see that there seems to be a stronger correlation between GCSEs and degree performance at Oxford than at Cambridge, if I'm interpreting this correctly.

Original post by jneill
I have extracted the Oxford and Cambridge data from that source (thanks again!). But can a statistician explain what this is actually saying...

Screen Shot 2015-09-09 at 09.55.58.jpg

Specifically which data point shows the correlation?


Interesting find.

@Noble. ?
Reply 62
Original post by fluteflute
I don't think I've ever seen Oxford actually say this.

Interesting find.

@Noble. ?


Just to clarify, for@Noble, the table was extracted from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/200903/GCSE_and_AS_level_Analysis_3_1.pdf
(edited 8 years ago)
"Logistic regression model 1 [GCSEs] predicted whether or not students would get a 2:1 or above with 69.5% accuracy while model 2 [AS] predicted with 68.4% accuracy. Neither of these figures is especially high, given that you would expect 50% accuracy by randomly guessing the outcomes with no consideration of student prior attainment. Hence, although GCSEs appear to more accurately predict whether a student will get a 2:1 or better in their degree, neither is especially accurate. Model 3 returned a prediction accuracy of 70.1%; only a gain of 0.6% accuracy on using GCSE results alone. "

^ most illustrative section for me.

Interviews or admissions tests, viral variable for both unis, are not included in that study. Looking at the two in isolation had the potential to be misleading.
Reply 64
Original post by nexttime
"Logistic regression model 1 [GCSEs] predicted whether or not students would get a 2:1 or above with 69.5% accuracy while model 2 [AS] predicted with 68.4% accuracy. Neither of these figures is especially high, given that you would expect 50% accuracy by randomly guessing the outcomes with no consideration of student prior attainment. Hence, although GCSEs appear to more accurately predict whether a student will get a 2:1 or better in their degree, neither is especially accurate. Model 3 returned a prediction accuracy of 70.1%; only a gain of 0.6% accuracy on using GCSE results alone. "

^ most illustrative section for me.

Interviews or admissions tests, viral variable for both unis, are not included in that study. Looking at the two in isolation had the potential to be misleading.


Yes. And we know interviews etc are vital. But given all that it's still not clear (at least to me) what the Oxbridge data in that set is actually saying. It's valid to compare them, we just need to know what is actually being compared...

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