Alex Salmond - "Scotland would win the YES vote if referendum held this week" ?

Original post by The Owl of Minerva

In the case of Scotland, yes. Because despite the union, Scotland is legally a country in its own right with its own distinct sense of history and culture.

Scotland is not "legally" anything of the sort. In law, it's described as a "part" of the United Kingdom, nothing more dramatic than that. Scotland does not have some sort of extraordinary status that other parts of other countries lack.

It has a distinctive history and culture. So does Glasgow. So does Tyneside. So, dare I suggest it, does the Northern Isles. Note however all of them have a combined history and culture, forged through centuries of political ties.

Reply 81

L i b

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Original post by The Owl of Minerva

Well its not a slippery slope affair. Cities, though they too might also feel that they are distinct, cannot all form viable autonomous states.

Yes they can, have done in the past and do today. There are quite a number of micro-states out there.

The Scots though increasingly feel themselves to be a single national entity, seperate from the UK .

No, we don't.

The tories do not have a single seat in that country and yet they are the government.

Come to Scotland. You might actually notice that we do indeed have Conservative representation in the House of Commons, European Parliament, Scottish Parliament and local councils.

Indeed, being politically distinctive is not an argument for separation. Throughout the Labour years in Government, I had family living in a borough without a single Labour councillor: should they have seen themselves as politically distinct? No, of course not - in every country, even in every county, there are areas where parties do well or do badly.

(edited 8 years ago)

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L i b

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Original post by Gears265

We have to work in terms of majorities. Majority of Scotland share little to zero culture or history with the UK to be proud of. This is one piece of the argument. There is no reason for us to be joined with one another. We haven't got a proud Union.

Scotland is more culturally integrated with the rest of the UK than it has ever been. Today more than ever, Scotland is influenced by British broadcasting; UK national newspapers have outpaced older, Scottish-specific titles. This has all happened and been consolidated in the past 60 years.

As for history, I give you centuries of wars, combined civic movements, trade unions, the NHS and welfare state... in fact, this is daft: I could go on all night. Your proposition is fundamentally rubbish.

Secondly our politics is very different. Look at all major polls on key political issues. Where leaving the EU is popular in England it is not so in Scotland, where controlling immigration is popular in England it is not so in Scotland, where capitalism is popular in England it is not so in Scotland, where keeping trident is popular in England it is not so in Scotland, where reducing the welfare budget is popular in England it is not so in Scotland, on and on...

I'm sorry, but that's just entirely false.

There is a modest difference between views on the EU. In general, both parts want to stay in.

Scotland has consistently supported retaining a UK nuclear deterrent in poll after poll (YouGov, this month, overwhelmingly pro-nuclear). Scotland consistently says, again in poll after poll, that immigration is a big concern for a large majority (enjoy). As for the welfare budget, again, we're pro-reform: in fact, things like the Benefits Cap were more popular in Scotland than in England (YouGov, 2012).

Original post by Gears265

Hopefully the SNP get their second referendum and the Scottish cowards who voted to stay in the UK grow some balls. Project fear was a farce.

Poisonous stuff.

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abc:)

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Original post by ChaoticButterfly

Best bet is UK votes to leave EU, then Scotland have referendum (justifiable then imo) and votes to leave UK and joins EU :-/

Yes if we leave the EU then I could definitely imagine the potential for that.... but I don't think we are going to leave the EU

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L i b

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Original post by abc:)

Yes if we leave the EU then I could definitely imagine the potential for that.... but I don't think we are going to leave the EU

The problem with the EU point is that it has been repeated ad nauseum by the SNP, but there's very little sense behind it.

First off, the idea of joining an economic union by leaving a closer economic union that you trade five times as much with is clearly pretty flawed. That would be the proposition put to Scotland.

Secondly, even though the SNP argument over joining the EU on the UK's terms was paper thin, it completely dies in this instance. Scotland would be joining as a new accession country, would have to accept the Euro and get none of the opt-outs. Unless an extraordinary opt-out was negotiated, it'd have to join Schengen, meaning border guards at Gretna would - instead of being a 'it'll never happen' - become the default position.

Gone would be any suggestion of currency union, of shared financial sector regulation or Edinburgh continuing to have a financial sector attached to London.

I'm exceptionally pro-Europe. But even if Scotland was already independent and the UK opted to leave the EU, it would be by far the most sensible approach for Scotland to follow it out and maintain closer ties with the UK. We're not in economic unions for fun, and it's quite clear that being economically allied with the rest of the UK is what's in Scotland's interests.

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username1148663

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There is very small majority in the UK to leave the EU and a very small majority to stay in the EU in Scotland.

The point I'm making here is it's about 50/50 at the moment either way and unless you get at least 60% you can't say that the politics are very different on this issue.

It would be similar I bet with ni and wales

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Reply 86

MatureStudent36

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Original post by Gears265

The last referendum was really close. A lot has changed since. If a few more are convinced we can get the buggers out of the UK once and for all. It could be a success, you never know.

Get what buggers out? Will I be forced to leave in the event of a yes vote?

I doubt it would be a success. The yesnp campaign resorted to telling some rather significant lies in an attempt to get support.

Original post by L i b

It's not really "unionist politicians", it's the Scottish Labour Party. It's a sad fact, but the nationalists will continue to dominate the agenda while the main party of opposition is so weak.

Labour has to get its act together or make way for a new opposition, for the sake of the union.

It's not just Labour - the Lib Dems aren't much use either. I'm not sure if their crusade against Police Scotland and stop-and-search really resonates with enough Scots (who seem to have a soft spot for the kind of benevolent statism espoused by Labour and the SNP) to prevent their electoral wipe-out in 2016 like in 2015. Their association with the Tories from the last coalition is toxic, and I'm not sure what they can do to shake it off.

There are, of course, the Conservatives, but however much spot-on Ruth Davidson is most of the time, she's still a Tory and no-one in Scotland really listens to the Tories anyway, barely able to keep their one remaining seat in May and seeing their share of the vote dip below 15%.

To be honest, the prognosis for Scotland isn't good, and none of the pro-Union parties have enough of the combination of political talent and support base required to turn things around.

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L i b

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Original post by Smack

It's not just Labour - the Lib Dems aren't much use either. I'm not sure if their crusade against Police Scotland and stop-and-search really resonates with enough Scots (who seem to have a soft spot for the kind of benevolent statism espoused by Labour and the SNP) to prevent their electoral wipe-out in 2016 like in 2015. Their association with the Tories from the last coalition is toxic, and I'm not sure what they can do to shake it off.

I don't think they'll be wiped out - if anything, it seems they'll stay where they are, or pick up a Lothians seat (now the independent Margo MacDonald is gone, it's the most likely outcome).

There are, of course, the Conservatives, but however much spot-on Ruth Davidson is most of the time, she's still a Tory and no-one in Scotland really listens to the Tories anyway, barely able to keep their one remaining seat in May and seeing their share of the vote dip below 15%.

Vote share down, actual vote up 20,000-odd. In all honesty, I'm surprised the Tories didn't do worse in 2015: polls showed their supporters were most likely to consider unionist tactical voting, and certainly seem to have done so in key middle class constituencies. Sitting pro-union MPs like Mike Crockart clearly benefited from significant Tory support.

The Tories are in a slump, but like all parties they'll fluctuate in popularity. I guess we'll see if there can be any real revival, but it's worth considering a poll last week put them on 24 seats in Holyrood and Labour on 26. If Labour doesn't turn itself around - and I do see it as very difficult to come back from where they are now - the Conservatives can realistically expect to be the opposition party in Scotland at some point.

We're looking at a generation's worth of shift here. In 20 years, I don't think it'll matter much where the parties are now: they could have completely switched places. The SNP, let's not forget, came from nowhere - even in the last election, there were plenty of seats it gained after coming from fourth place.

Original post by L i b

I don't think they'll be wiped out - if anything, it seems they'll stay where they are, or pick up a Lothians seat (now the independent Margo MacDonald is gone, it's the most likely outcome).

Possibly. Things could already be at their nadir for the Lib Dems, although Carmichael could still get ousted.

Vote share down, actual vote up 20,000-odd. In all honesty, I'm surprised the Tories didn't do worse in 2015: polls showed their supporters were most likely to consider unionist tactical voting, and certainly seem to have done so in key middle class constituencies. Sitting pro-union MPs like Mike Crockart clearly benefited from significant Tory support.

The Tories are in a slump, but like all parties they'll fluctuate in popularity. I guess we'll see if there can be any real revival, but it's worth considering a poll last week put them on 24 seats in Holyrood and Labour on 26. If Labour doesn't turn itself around - and I do see it as very difficult to come back from where they are now - the Conservatives can realistically expect to be the opposition party in Scotland at some point.

Whilst I think Ruth Davidson is one of the biggest talents in Holyrood at the moment, I still think that the Tory brand is still just too toxic in Scotland at the moment for them to even be considering replacing Labour as the main opposition party. With Corbyn now leading Labour at the UK level, Labour have a good opportunity to restore their true left-wing credentials, which may also result in winning back some of those who deserted them in favour of the allegedly left-wing SNP.

We're looking at a generation's worth of shift here. In 20 years, I don't think it'll matter much where the parties are now: they could have completely switched places. The SNP, let's not forget, came from nowhere - even in the last election, there were plenty of seats it gained after coming from fourth place.

I would hardly say that the SNP came from nowhere. All they had to do to point the map yellow was mobilise the Yes vote, which they did. The nationalist tidal wave has been obvious since 2007 when you look at it.

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L i b

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Original post by Smack

Possibly. Things could already be at their nadir for the Lib Dems, although Carmichael could still get ousted.

Carmichael isn't realistically going anywhere. The legal arguments for a re-run of his election poor to begin with. They got a bit of polish from a decent advocate or two, but they're still fundamentally bad.

Whilst I think Ruth Davidson is one of the biggest talents in Holyrood at the moment, I still think that the Tory brand is still just too toxic in Scotland at the moment for them to even be considering replacing Labour as the main opposition party. With Corbyn now leading Labour at the UK level, Labour have a good opportunity to restore their true left-wing credentials, which may also result in winning back some of those who deserted them in favour of the allegedly left-wing SNP.

I don't think Corbyn is going to achieve that. The problem is that Labour's existing vote isn't even what you'd consider its traditional core vote - they're gone. What remains are a fairly middle class bunch, who Corbyn will scare off. As unionists, they might be tempted over to the Tories or Lib Dems.

Even if Corbyn begins to look competent, the rot is too far gone. Those who have moved over to the SNP aren't coming back: for better or worse, those who voted for Labour even as recently as 2010 now think they're lying, duplicitous scum.

It's not a policy issue, it's like Tories who've gone UKIP: when they're sold normal politics, their eyes glaze over and their ears close off. They'll say they like Corbyn, they'll say it's a good direction for Labour, but ultimately they're now SNP.

I would hardly say that the SNP came from nowhere. All they had to do to point the map yellow was mobilise the Yes vote, which they did. The nationalist tidal wave has been obvious since 2007 when you look at it.

Not really. Labour got a real chance. They had a landslide in Scotland for the 2010 general election. They were ahead in the polls in 2011 until they ran the most disastrous campaign I've ever seen. They had every opportunity to break that wave, and yet they failed.