YouGov: Con 39%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16%, LD 6%, GRN 3%

Also why is no one talking about the com-res poll? Over 2,000 surveyed (one of the biggest sample sizes) and it gave:

Con - 42
Lab - 30
UKIP - 13
LD - 7
SNP - 5
Green - 3
Others - 1

link to poll?

Reply 21

jamestg

21

Original post by jamestg

Also why is no one talking about the com-res poll? Over 2,000 surveyed (one of the biggest sample sizes) and it gave:

Con - 42
Lab - 30
UKIP - 13
LD - 7
SNP - 5
Green - 3
Others - 1

Seat-wise on the good ol' electoral calculus gives the following:

Con - 350 (+19)
Lab - 216 (-16)
UKIP - 1 (NC)
LD - 6 (-2)
SNP - 55 (-1)
Green - 0 (-1)
Others - 4 (+1)

Conservatives making gains from Labour, Lib Dems, Green Party and the SNP.

Reply 22

jamestg

21

Original post by Chief Wiggum

link to poll?

http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/IoS-SM-September-Poll_Tables.pdf

Reply 23

CAElite

19

Original post by Rad-Reloaded

Jeremy Corbyn

The Conservative Party's greatest asset

:dunce:

Haha! Now you know how we feel up in Scotland, David Cameron is the SNP's greatest asset. Literally every time he opens his mouth the SNP majority up here increases by 0.1%, and he opens his mouth lots! :biggrin:

Reply 24

Rad-Reloaded

2

Original post by CAElite

Haha! Now you know how we feel up in Scotland, David Cameron is the SNP's greatest asset. Literally every time he opens his mouth the SNP majority up here increases by 0.1%, and he opens his mouth lots! :biggrin:

I don't doubt this at all, sometimes it's the jackasses of any movement who drive people in the opposite direction.

Reply 25

looseseal

11

Corbyn has been leader of the Labour party for just a week. He's barely been able to outline any of his economic, health, education or foreign policies yet!

What relevance does a poll comparing the electability of a party who literally just elected a new leader to that of a party who've been in government for 5 years and had recently won a general election? Premature doesn't even come close to describing it.

I'm seriously starting to question the intelligence of some posters who seem to be regurgitating the Corbyn-hating hubris printed by the media over the past week.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 26

MatureStudent36

5

Original post by Errm42

As long as his MP's work hard in their existing constituencies and prospective MP's work hard in their prospective constituencies, it might just be enough to reduce the majority of the Tories.

Corbyn couldn't possibly do anymore damage to Labour than what has gone on before. I mean, Labout have been hemorrhaging seats since 1997.

If Labour gains a majority under Corbyn, then he won't be "ejected". :confused:

I wouldn't say labour has hemarraging seats. It has lost 201% of its support after a leadership election which is rather telling. So I think it's fair to say that corbyn has done huge amounts of damage. It's not a surprise really other to the loud shouty left wing minoroty who normally get it wrong anyway.

Labour argent going to get a majority under Corbyn. Labours about to collapse under corbyn.

Reply 27

looseseal

11

Original post by MatureStudent36

I wouldn't say labour has hemarraging seats. It has lost 201% of its support after a leadership election which is rather telling. So I think it's fair to say that corbyn has done huge amounts of damage. It's not a surprise really other to the loud shouty left wing minoroty who normally get it wrong anyway.

Labour argent going to get a majority under Corbyn. Labours about to collapse under corbyn.

It's no wonder that Labour have "lost" support considering that the nation has witnessed quite possibly the most hostile media reaction to the election of a party leader in British history. Most of the articles printed about Corbyn haven't even been related to his policies.

Let's not also forget that it has literally been only a week since he was elected - he hasn't even been able to outline the majority of his policies, therefore, for you to use these polls (which also failed quite embarrassingly to predict the GE result) as some kind of evidence for the unelectibility of Corbyn is quite frankly ridiculous.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 28

username1862217

15

As the saying goes... Don't judge a book by its cover, and don't judge a pile of crap until you've smelled it.

Reply 29

Observatory

20

Original post by Fango_Jett

Aren't YouGov the same people who predicted a major Labour victory for 2015 GE?

I would take anything they say with a (large) pinch of salt.

No, they projected an equal vote share, and were out by about 3 percentage points in both directions, which is (just) within the margin of error. Some other people then extrapolated an equal vote share to predict a hung parliament in which Labour could form a coalition with the SNP.

Note that YouGov hasn't changed its methodology since the election so if they are saying there's a 7pt Tory lead today and are systemically biased 6pts in favour of Labour then there is actually a 13pt Tory lead today, which is about what the ComRes polling is showing.

Reply 30

Observatory

20

Original post by jamestg

Seat-wise on the good ol' electoral calculus gives the following:

Con - 350 (+19)
Lab - 216 (-16)
UKIP - 1 (NC)
LD - 6 (-2)
SNP - 55 (-1)
Green - 0 (-1)
Others - 4 (+1)

Conservatives making gains from Labour, Lib Dems, Green Party and the SNP.

Surprising that a 4pt increase in vote share only gives them another 19 seats. Of course if one repeats it with the new boundaries they get another 55 seats despite a smaller parliament, for a majority of 110.

Reply 31

Errm42

Original post by MatureStudent36

I wouldn't say labour has hemarraging seats. It has lost 201% of its support after a leadership election which is rather telling. So I think it's fair to say that corbyn has done huge amounts of damage. It's not a surprise really other to the loud shouty left wing minoroty who normally get it wrong anyway.

How can you say that "Labour has [not] been hemorrhaging seats".

Seats - Labour (97 - Present)

1997: 418
2001: 413
2005: 355
2010: 258
2015: 232

In the space of about 20 years, they reduced their seats by nearly half. And all whilst campaigning on what could be broadly described as a centre ground platform.

By the way, where did you get the 201% figure from?

Labour argent going to get a majority under Corbyn. Labours about to collapse under corbyn.

If the Tories fail in their policies, which it looks like they will, then they have got a very good chance.

Reply 32

jamestg

21

Original post by Observatory

Surprising that a 4pt increase in vote share only gives them another 19 seats. Of course if one repeats it with the new boundaries they get another 55 seats despite a smaller parliament, for a majority of 110.

It's due to the fact other parties' vote share has changed very little, and more obviously the Conservatives have fewer target seats.

Reply 33

Kaiju

16

mfw people still view a guy who wanted to ban encryption positively :colonhash:

Reply 34

Jammy Duel

21

Original post by jamestg

Seat-wise on the good ol' electoral calculus gives the following:

Con - 350 (+19)
Lab - 216 (-16)
UKIP - 1 (NC)
LD - 6 (-2)
SNP - 55 (-1)
Green - 0 (-1)
Others - 4 (+1)

Conservatives making gains from Labour, Lib Dems, Green Party and the SNP.

And that's before boundary reform pushes labour and the SNP even lower.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 35

TheCitizenAct

OP

2

Original post by Jammy Duel

And that's before boundary reform pushes labour and the SNP even lower.

Posted from TSR Mobile

The key point which most people forget to mention, particularly the reduction in MPs from 650 to 600 and the equalisation of constituencies.

Reply 36

Jammy Duel

21

Original post by TheCitizenAct

The key point which most people forget to mention, particularly the reduction in MPs from 650 to 600 and the equalisation of constituencies.

Indeed

With a set of boundaries, according to the criteria, established by one think tank a few years back the tories would have had 299, so an effective majority with Sinn Fein and the speaker taken into account, and the Lib Dems down over a quarter of their seats

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 37

billydisco

3

Original post by TheCitizenAct

Well, it is YouGov. I think when the wider public wakes up to what Corbyn really is - yet another fan of mass immigration and an appeaser of the barbarity that is Islam - it will push yet more people in the opposite direction, or towards the Lib Dems or UKIP.

and thats not even mentioning his links with Argentina getting the Falklands....

YouGov: Con 39%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16%, LD 6%, GRN 3%

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