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Corbyn is here to stay for the long term!

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Original post by Fullofsurprises
Plus opposition parties usually do well in by-elections and we also still see that the Libdems, historically the place of refuge for protest voters in by-elections have not been fully replaced by UKIP. The rather tepid performance of UKIP was the real story from this result and I think they are in decline as a threat now. The Tories will be more pleased than Labour about that.

Corbyn did less well in this election than Miliband did at the same time after he became leader of the Labour Party in similar by-elections.

I think Corbyn's days are definitely numbered, especially if, as being suggested, he is about to sack Benn as a shadow minister. That will allow opponents to rally round Hilary and make him the leader in waiting. Corbyn has shown few political skills so far in office, so it's credible that he will make such a stupid mistake.


I'm also wondering at what point David Miliband thinks about coming back from New York...
Corbyn is the only politician who understands the british public, hats off to him
Original post by ikhan94
Corbyn is the only politician who understands the british public, hats off to him


Does he?

Posted from TSR Mobile


Yup, in my opinion he does, his views on palestine, syria and on cuts
Reply 44
How long is long term in this scenario?

If long term means til the next election then so what?

If it means longer then clearly that's quite unlikely .Apart from anything else,statistically he has a fair chance of becoming too ill over the next 10 years.

(I don't vote but I would send my au pair ( if that's possible) to vote for him just in case he wins or much more likely forms a coalition so I can say I voted for him:smile: )
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by Drewski
Oldham isn't a test, Labour were never not going to win there. They could have named a pebble as their candidate and they'd still return a majority.


They could have named a half-eaten naan bread as their candidate...
Original post by ikhan94
Yup, in my opinion he does, his views on palestine, syria and on cuts


Views on the first I'm not sure about, second he is in the minority, and third depends on how deep and where we are defining the cuts.

Posted from TSR Mobile
Corbyn is here to stay until at least the 2020 election. He is the choice amongst the far-left and it is clear that, at least currently, it is the far-left that is in-charge at the Labour party. He received such a strong mandate from the membership that he simply cannot be replaced because it happens that a lot of his MPs do not agree with him that much.

Labour were always going to win Oldham - I think Corbyn's first real test will be how his party does in the Scottish parliament elections in 2016, where the polls suggest that few of the ostensibly left-wing Scots are planning to vote for the Scottish branch of his party. How will he react when this happens - will he chalk it up to nationalism and hope continue on until 2020, or will the pressure against him from his own party continue to mount, and will his own backers leave him?

Ultimately I think that a lot of his supporters are not particularly concerned with electoral success and are more than happy to be in perpetual opposition.
Original post by Smack
Corbyn is here to stay until at least the 2020 election. He is the choice amongst the far-left and it is clear that, at least currently, it is the far-left that is in-charge at the Labour party. He received such a strong mandate from the membership that he simply cannot be replaced because it happens that a lot of his MPs do not agree with him that much.

Labour were always going to win Oldham - I think Corbyn's first real test will be how his party does in the Scottish parliament elections in 2016, where the polls suggest that few of the ostensibly left-wing Scots are planning to vote for the Scottish branch of his party. How will he react when this happens - will he chalk it up to nationalism and hope continue on until 2020, or will the pressure against him from his own party continue to mount, and will his own backers leave him?

Ultimately I think that a lot of his supporters are not particularly concerned with electoral success and are more than happy to be in perpetual opposition.


Far left? He's mixed economy man - not dissimilar to Rab Butler ( Conservative) or Hugh Gaitskill ( Labour ) of the post war consensus.

Most of the Press thought he would have a much reduced majority, 4-5000 or possibly as low as under 1000 or even would lose to UKIP. Of course most of the Press is owned by right wing, foreign or off shore residing billionaires (Think Barclay Brothers- Telegraph, or Murdoch - Times, Sun) so it's a combination of wishful thinking, ignorance and propaganda. Few if any papers have any interest in or know much about life outside their London coterie. Much less do they understand how 90% of the country live. They are there to protect the interests of their friends. Amazing that anyone else is still reading them, knowing as we now do, how much corruption there is in their world.

I expect the ordinary members of the Labour Party have been sick to death of many of the policies of the New Labour and are delighted to have a proper Labour man as a leader now. Labour Party membership continues to soar since his election in contrast to the falling membership of the Conservative Party. It is a huge advantage for any party to have thousands of energetic foot soldiers on the ground to do the knocking on doors etc at an election.

I doubt that the many, many people who were targetted by the Tax Credit cuts will forget anytime soon particularly as Universal Credit and its grim realities, is being introduced.

The reason why there has been a huge upswing in enthusiasm in the Labour Party is precisely because they are keen to win an election with a leader who has their values. They are raring to go and definitely want to win.
Original post by Drewski
I'm also wondering at what point David Miliband thinks about coming back from New York...




Original post by Ambitious1999
Just when sceptics were doubting Corbyns survival over the last week or so the results at Oldham have gone to show that Corbyn is more popular than we thought and that Blairism is fininshed.

Oldham was a huge victory for labour showing that Corbyn is attracting more people than previous labour leaders could. Cleaning the labour party of the centrists and Blairites is going ahead with full steam. Those who betrayed labour over the airstrikes vote are the centrist class who are on their way out and know labour is not tolerating their rightist behaviour anymore. Maybe they will join the Tories or set up their own party, which we doubt will get any votes.


Well, that's just untrue (or untested, rather). One by-election result cannot be compared to the numbers attracted by previous Labour leaders. You're not comparing like with like in doing that; a by-election in a Labour safe seat isn't representative of national support for him, especially given the low turnout.

Britain is backing Corbyn and his revival of Labour and he is here it Stay!


Again, this is hyperbolic trash. See above.
Original post by ChaoticButterfly


Lol, what a true portrait that truly is. :giggle:
Original post by Ambitious1999
Just when sceptics were doubting Corbyns survival over the last week or so the results at Oldham have gone to show that Corbyn is more popular than we thought and that Blairism is fininshed.

Oldham was a huge victory for labour showing that Corbyn is attracting more people than previous labour leaders could. Cleaning the labour party of the centrists and Blairites is going ahead with full steam. Those who betrayed labour over the airstrikes vote are the centrist class who are on their way out and know labour is not tolerating their rightist behaviour anymore. Maybe they will join the Tories or set up their own party, which we doubt will get any votes.

Britain is backing Corbyn and his revival of Labour and he is here it Stay!


I actually disagree I do not think he will be party leader by Jan 17'- he will be overhauled or will do a jim smith.
Original post by pickup
Far left? He's mixed economy man - not dissimilar to Rab Butler ( Conservative) or Hugh Gaitskill ( Labour ) of the post war consensus.

Most of the Press thought he would have a much reduced majority, 4-5000 or possibly as low as under 1000 or even would lose to UKIP. Of course most of the Press is owned by right wing, foreign or off shore residing billionaires (Think Barclay Brothers- Telegraph, or Murdoch - Times, Sun) so it's a combination of wishful thinking, ignorance and propaganda. Few if any papers have any interest in or know much about life outside their London coterie. Much less do they understand how 90% of the country live. They are there to protect the interests of their friends. Amazing that anyone else is still reading them, knowing as we now do, how much corruption there is in their world.

I expect the ordinary members of the Labour Party have been sick to death of many of the policies of the New Labour and are delighted to have a proper Labour man as a leader now. Labour Party membership continues to soar since his election in contrast to the falling membership of the Conservative Party. It is a huge advantage for any party to have thousands of energetic foot soldiers on the ground to do the knocking on doors etc at an election.

I doubt that the many, many people who were targetted by the Tax Credit cuts will forget anytime soon particularly as Universal Credit and its grim realities, is being introduced.

The reason why there has been a huge upswing in enthusiasm in the Labour Party is precisely because they are keen to win an election with a leader who has their values. They are raring to go and definitely want to win.


I suppose the question is when or if the Labour Party will return to the norm and select a leader the PLP want and not the activists. Most of the political parties (possibly all) have activist bases that are unrepresentative of the people who mainly vote for that party. The Labour Party is no exception - as Corbyn's selection shows, the activist and member voters are not in touch with majority centre-left opinion.

It isn't the case that Corbyn is a centre left guy on economics. He's well over on the hard left, as is McDonnell - although they are seeking to pose as more centrist currently. They are Marxists but perhaps with a small 'm'. I don't hold that against them personally, but it won't work with the broader electorate, told how to think (as you correctly point out) by offshore, international finance capital-controlled media interests.
Original post by Fullofsurprises


It isn't the case that Corbyn is a centre left guy on economics. He's well over on the hard left, as is McDonnell - although they are seeking to pose as more centrist currently. They are Marxists but perhaps with a small 'm'. I don't hold that against them personally, but it won't work with the broader electorate, told how to think (as you correctly point out) by offshore, international finance capital-controlled media interests.


Greece had the same problem with Syrizia and a hostile media. They still won with communists in the party and an openly "erratic Marxist" minister. All the New labour types that were communists in their youth. Very left wing people can successfully adopt positions that allow them to get support from a more moderate public.

Also the likes of Jermamy Hunt want to privatize the NHS proper. That is an unpopular view with the public. He is still in power.
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by ChaoticButterfly
Greece had the same problem with Syrizia and a hostile media. They still won with communists in the party and an openly "erratic Marxist" minister. All the New labour types that were communists in their youth. Very left wing people can successfully adopt positions that allow them to get support from a more moderate public.

Also the likes of Jermamy Hunt want to privatize the NHS proper. That is an unpopular view with the public. He is still in power.


Yes, the UK is not Greece though and we mustn't get over-optimistic. It's true that the political situation after more years of deep cuts and a crumbling NHS (they are trying to get that ready for full privatisation) may be significantly more favourable to the Left in a few year's time, but equally, the solid rump of Tory votes will continue to be pampered by Osborne, not least with a fresh round of tax cuts for the slightly better off just before the next election. I am in two minds about Corbyn's electoral possibilities - on the one hand, I think he will increase the vote in Labour areas, in the North and Wales and probably in Scotland, where the SNP already have problems. However, across most of England below Sheffield, it's plausible that Labour will lose even those few seats they currently have. They might theoretically do better in London if they campaigned hard on housing, but Ed tried that and also got nowhere. In London, the poor don't vote and I'm not convinced Corbyn will persuade them to.

Overall, I think Corbyn would hand the Tories a 100 seat majority, although there is still a way to go to be sure.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
I suppose the question is when or if the Labour Party will return to the norm and select a leader the PLP want and not the activists. Most of the political parties (possibly all) have activist bases that are unrepresentative of the people who mainly vote for that party. The Labour Party is no exception - as Corbyn's selection shows, the activist and member voters are not in touch with majority centre-left opinion.

It isn't the case that Corbyn is a centre left guy on economics. He's well over on the hard left, as is McDonnell - although they are seeking to pose as more centrist currently. They are Marxists but perhaps with a small 'm'. I don't hold that against them personally, but it won't work with the broader electorate, told how to think (as you correctly point out) by offshore, international finance capital-controlled media interests.


I expect both the majority of the members of the Labour Party and the many non voters of the UK electorate will think that the Labour Party is now offering the electorate a choice which it didn't have before when the leader had moved to the right and when some MPs had been selected on that basis against the wishes of their local party. Many people refused to vote precisely because they claimed 'all the politicians were the same'.

What on earth would you call the Atlee Government of 1945 which brought in the NHS, Legal Aid and nationalised industries, presumably extreme left too, if Jeremy Corbyn is extreme left? Yet the Atlee Government had a huge majority so the people of the UK are quite prepared to vote ( exteme) left. And, what on earth is a marxist with a (large or ) small M?

Fortunately most people do think. Despite the Press being convinced that the right wing Churchill would have a landslide victory in 1945 the people of the UK thought differently. I think that despite Mrs Thatcher's view that there is no such thing as society, ie everyone is just grabbing as much as possible for themselves, there are many people, perhaps a majority, in this country who have higher morals and believe in fairness, believe in paying taxes to create a Welfare State that benefits everyone in their hour of need. ( And I include many people who have voted Conservative.) Unfortunately there is not necessarily a correlation between what people earn, the worth of their job, what they need etc.
Original post by pickup
Far left? He's mixed economy man - not dissimilar to Rab Butler ( Conservative) or Hugh Gaitskill ( Labour ) of the post war consensus.

Most of the Press thought he would have a much reduced majority, 4-5000 or possibly as low as under 1000 or even would lose to UKIP. Of course most of the Press is owned by right wing, foreign or off shore residing billionaires (Think Barclay Brothers- Telegraph, or Murdoch - Times, Sun) so it's a combination of wishful thinking, ignorance and propaganda. Few if any papers have any interest in or know much about life outside their London coterie. Much less do they understand how 90% of the country live. They are there to protect the interests of their friends. Amazing that anyone else is still reading them, knowing as we now do, how much corruption there is in their world.

I expect the ordinary members of the Labour Party have been sick to death of many of the policies of the New Labour and are delighted to have a proper Labour man as a leader now. Labour Party membership continues to soar since his election in contrast to the falling membership of the Conservative Party. It is a huge advantage for any party to have thousands of energetic foot soldiers on the ground to do the knocking on doors etc at an election.

I doubt that the many, many people who were targetted by the Tax Credit cuts will forget anytime soon particularly as Universal Credit and its grim realities, is being introduced.

The reason why there has been a huge upswing in enthusiasm in the Labour Party is precisely because they are keen to win an election with a leader who has their values. They are raring to go and definitely want to win.


Ah, the "they don't know how the majority of the country live" chestnut. But, given that the country returned a Tory majority after many were absolutely sure that Labour would get in again after five years of devastating Conservative led cuts, I'm not so sure that the left knows how the majority of the country live either.
Original post by pickup
I expect both the majority of the members of the Labour Party and the many non voters of the UK electorate will think that the Labour Party is now offering the electorate a choice which it didn't have before when the leader had moved to the right and when some MPs had been selected on that basis against the wishes of their local party. Many people refused to vote precisely because they claimed 'all the politicians were the same'.

What on earth would you call the Atlee Government of 1945 which brought in the NHS, Legal Aid and nationalised industries, presumably extreme left too, if Jeremy Corbyn is extreme left? Yet the Atlee Government had a huge majority so the people of the UK are quite prepared to vote ( exteme) left. And, what on earth is a marxist with a (large or ) small M?

Fortunately most people do think. Despite the Press being convinced that the right wing Churchill would have a landslide victory in 1945 the people of the UK thought differently. I think that despite Mrs Thatcher's view that there is no such thing as society, ie everyone is just grabbing as much as possible for themselves, there are many people, perhaps a majority, in this country who have higher morals and believe in fairness, believe in paying taxes to create a Welfare State that benefits everyone in their hour of need. ( And I include many people who have voted Conservative.) Unfortunately there is not necessarily a correlation between what people earn, the worth of their job, what they need etc.


Yes but Atlee was not extreme then. We got the NHS and the whole welfare state after all that had gone on in Europe. Extreme left then meant communists or radical syndicalists.

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