Odds are, UK votes to stay in the EU

Quite literally, bookmakers are giving better odds on the vote to leave, I suppose 'better' is subjective.

You win more money, should you bet, if we vote to leave because bookmakers think it's the least likely outcome.

Is anyone tempted to place a bet ?

I was always thinking Brexit was likely, but bookmakers are putting their money where their mouth is and saying it's less likely. They have no axe to grind, makes me think the vote to stay is almost a certain.

I was under the impression the the polls showed Brexit to be favored, last time I checked it was 8 points ahead.......... go figure.
Skybet
Stay, 2/5
Leave 7/4

There are many, many more listings of odds in the link below, but they all read like this.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

(edited 8 years ago)

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Reply 1

Dodgypirate

7/4 odds is pretty **** to tbh...

Reply 2

Alex from almanis

The Almanis prediction market says there is about a 70% chance that the UK stays in the EU:
So it seems the more likely outcome, although a 70% chance is by no means certain. If you disagree you can make your own predictions

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 3

fallen_acorns

Polls always swing to the 'new' option and away from the 'status quo' option before an election/referendum.

Scotland and the last UK referendum are great examples of this.

54% polling for leave, will translate to a comfortable win for remain on election day..

In reality, leave need to be trending at over 60% to become anywhere close to favorites.. but I cant see that happening

Reply 4

TheIr0nDuke

The power of propaganda, money and fear.

Knew as soon as the referendum was announced that this is how it would be played.

Reply 5

Jammy Duel

Original post by fallen_acorns

Actually if you look at the polling for Scotland there were only ever 4 polls that showed leaving in the lead, two early on where it was a 1% lead, one with a 4% lead and one with a 7% lead nearer the day, you didn't get the consistent tight polling. Further you are getting the experts who have a good record predicting results saying we're looking at a 52-48 leave, and I don't know what internal polling said for Scotland, but bad weather on the 23rd will pretty much guarantee an exit.

Money wants to be on exit with 45-50% vote for in, or if the weather forecast nearer the day is very bad maybe 40-45%

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 6

Alex from almanis

The Almanis crowd has stayed steady at around a 60-70% chance that Britain remains in the EU. This is still far from certain and leaves about a 1-in-3 chance that Britain will leave.

Reply 7

joey11223

Yeah the bookies are always pretty accurate on their odds reflecting reality......

Reply 8

Plagioclase

Original post by Alex from almanis

The Almanis crowd has stayed steady at around a 60-70% chance that Britain remains in the EU. This is still far from certain and leaves about a 1-in-3 chance that Britain will leave.

Why does the % fluctuate so much? I made a forecast and the crowd forecast jumped by 20%...

Reply 9

TheSuingEU

The UK will collapse with the EU within next 2 years, this means no food and water.

Reply 10

Alex from almanis

Original post by Plagioclase

Why does the % fluctuate so much? I made a forecast and the crowd forecast jumped by 20%...

The system is calibrated to give weight/reward to new information. This is what makes it different to other websites like Good Judgement for example. This prioritises new information to the market. The thing is, if you've moved it too far, the crowd will very quickly re-calibrate it to a reasonable level. This means if you're looking at a forecast, the true crowd average is probably the rough average of the crowd over the last week or so, if nothing major has changed about the question. This article explains it a little bit:
http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21688751-almanis-aims-harness-wisdom-crowds-without-groupthink-new-type
I'm not sure if I've explained that that well so let me know if it doesn't make sense!

Reply 11

spiritofmccarthy

Original post by TheSuingEU

The UK will collapse with the EU within next 2 years, this means no food and water.

Glad you decided to calm your nerves with a swift whisky and fly with us aboard Eurowings Flight MH-311, sir.

Reply 12

username1204031

Original post by TheIr0nDuke

The power of propaganda, money and fear.

Knew as soon as the referendum was announced that this is how it would be played.

Sorry, what? How much money do you think the Daily Mail and all these other cancerous tabloids spend pushing the leave agenda? Which side is screaming about millions of jihadis getting in because we can't control our borders?

Reply 13

M14B

I have a feeling the stay will win

Reply 14

Omen96

Of course the result will be in no matter what. I really do laugh when I see IN campaigners get in a fit when they know they have won anyway

Reply 15

username1177050

i hope not, it will come back to bite us in the ass. the average person on the street gains nothing from this fascist superstate

Reply 16

Jammy Duel

Original post by Omen96

Of course the result will be in no matter what. I really do laugh when I see IN campaigners get in a fit when they know they have won anyway

On the contrary, all out needs to guarantee a win is a major event in the week of the referendum that spurs Euroscepticism, the gains from it will still be there on the day

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 17

TheIr0nDuke

Original post by JordanL_

What do you think the leaflet distributed by the gov. (paid for with £9mil of taxpayers money, on top of the £7mil funding restrictions) was if not propaganda?

Newspapers advocating to leave are in the minority.

Threat of terrorism is a perfectly valid argument for leaving. Don't see why it shouldn't be mentioned.

Reply 18

Omen96

Original post by Jammy Duel

On the contrary, all out needs to guarantee a win is a major event in the week of the referendum that spurs Euroscepticism, the gains from it will still be there on the day

Posted from TSR Mobile

You are buying into the once in a blue moon polls way too much. Majority of the country is overwhelmingly pro-EU. There are only really a few million anti-EU voters in the UK. The vast majority support it

Reply 19

Jammy Duel

Original post by Omen96

Not at all true, fiercely eurosceptic massively outnumber fiercely pro EU, at least two to one, with the largest group being the undecided that lean in naturally due to it being the closest option to being the status quo, there are three things really that will turn it from probably close in to a close out:
1) bad weather, get the massive group of undecided possible voters out of the picture
2) sustained mild events that slowly pushes people away from the EU
3) a major event the week of the referendum such that there is the significant swing to it that is still there on the day.

Posted from TSR Mobile