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If the result is Leave, will we leave?

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Original post by Grand High Witch
The Tories would not go against the will of the people in that way - it would destroy them at the next election, lead to civil war inside the party and I imagine even remainers would be appalled if they ignored the will of the people in that way.


There's already a civil war in the Tory Party.

As I said, they won't suddenly announce they are ignoring the will of the people. It will be dribbled out over a period of years with lots of extremely negative announcements about the consequences of leaving.
Original post by Alexion
In the result of a Leave vote ~ We will leave. It won't be immediate, but democracy will have spoken and we will end up outside the EU.

Let's hope it doesn't happen though.


Spoken like a true slave :smile:
OP I think you should demonstrate that you are able to initiate a fair debate before you try to ask for other people's opinions. This poll is pointless since it only caters to your political beliefs, unless debate isn't really what you are after but merely assurances on your political position. In simpler terms, to be frank I don't think you are that interested in other people's opinions unless they suit your agenda.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
There are many who think the Tory Party is going to divide in two after this anyway, regardless of the outcome.

One of the saddest things about a Leave vote would be that it would be the working people of the country voting against their own interests on behalf of a corrupt group of reactionary politicians who represent City tax evasion interests. Eg, people like Farage and the right wing of the Conservative Party.


What?

Are you nuts?
Original post by TrueDetective01
Spoken like a true slave :smile:


:rofl:
Original post by Fullofsurprises
There's already a civil war in the Tory Party.

As I said, they won't suddenly announce they are ignoring the will of the people. It will be dribbled out over a period of years with lots of extremely negative announcements about the consequences of leaving.


This is a fantasy. The Tory party does not have a death wish in terms of elections and its own survival. If we vote leave, we leave.
This poll is so dodgy. It should be something like:

1) Leave the EU but try and keep us in the single market
2) Article 50 is triggered straight away and 2 year negotiation begins
3) Plan a strategy and trigger Article 50 later down the road when political tensions have slightly calmed
4) Try and push for a 2nd renegotiation to get more fundamental change to make a excuse for a 2nd referendum to keep us in
5) Ignore the result and make excuses on the practicalities of leaving and risk mass chaos among backbenchers and the public
Original post by LordGaben
This poll is so dodgy. It should be something like:

1) Leave the EU but try and keep us in the single market
2) Article 50 is triggered straight away and 2 year negotiation begins
3) Plan a strategy and trigger Article 50 later down the road when political tensions have slightly calmed
4) Try and push for a 2nd renegotiation to get more fundamental change to make a excuse for a 2nd referendum to keep us in
5) Ignore the result and make excuses on the practicalities of leaving and risk mass chaos among backbenchers and the public


I don't disagree that there are lots of possible variations.

The main point of my thread is that I am questioning what seems to be a trusting attitude on the part of many Leave voters that they can vote leave and then within a few months, we will be out of the EU. It's far more likely that there would have to be prolonged negotiations and if the Conservatives are in turmoil (likely) or replaced as the government (possible) then it is quite plausible that we would not leave.

I think your number (4) is highly likely and a second referendum would be offered after apparent concessions to the Leavers. There is ample precedent for this.
The UK Pound has dropped sharply now that it appears 55% of the population are leaning toward Leave. What a disaster. What would happen if we actually left.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
I don't disagree that there are lots of possible variations.

The main point of my thread is that I am questioning what seems to be a trusting attitude on the part of many Leave voters that they can vote leave and then within a few months, we will be out of the EU. It's far more likely that there would have to be prolonged negotiations and if the Conservatives are in turmoil (likely) or replaced as the government (possible) then it is quite plausible that we would not leave.

I think your number (4) is highly likely and a second referendum would be offered after apparent concessions to the Leavers. There is ample precedent for this.


It speaks volumes about yourself; it's appalling.
Original post by ib_hopeful
The UK Pound has dropped sharply now that it appears 55% of the population are leaning toward Leave. What a disaster. What would happen if we actually left.


For what reasons do you want to stay?

Then I'd happily dispute them. :smile:
Original post by ib_hopeful
The UK Pound has dropped sharply now that it appears 55% of the population are leaning toward Leave. What a disaster. What would happen if we actually left.


Our actual freedom, mate. I know, an alien concept to you :smile:
(edited 7 years ago)
The economy is going to be in crisis later this year regardless of the decision, same for the rest of the world, especially the EuroZone, I think if we leave they will try to tar ConKIP, potentially after an electoral investigation giving UKIP some seats in parliament so they are "locked in", eventually the EU will have to reform or go bust and we potentially may get roped back in after a second referendum or 2020 election (Corbynazis).
Original post by XcitingStuart
For what reasons do you want to stay?

Then I'd happily dispute them. :smile:


It will have negative consequences on our economy and thereby our future and will greatly affect the political stability (or rather lack thereof) of our great nation.

Here is a report to support this claim: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA022.pdf

Please back up what you say with reliable sources. :smile:

If you don't want to read the whole report, here is the conclusion.
Screen Shot 2016-06-11 at 17.47.37.png
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Original post by Alexion
In the result of a Leave vote ~ We will leave. It won't be immediate, but democracy will have spoken and we will end up outside the EU.

Let's hope it doesn't happen though.
The irony of 'Democracy will have spoken' when a vote to Remain is essentially a vote against democracy.
If A level politics taught me anything, it's that the results of referendums are considered binding on representative institutions. In theory, of course, big Dave and the tories have the ability to overrule but they would lose monumental support, even from people who agreed with his stance to remain in the EU simply because what he would have done would have been inherently undemocratic and illegitimate.

Also, the poll options are absolutely ridiculous and moronic, it is very possible that the UK will prosper from leaving the EU. Just because you disagree, doesn't mean you're right.

Voting to leave btw, but unlike many on here recognise the benefits of both leaving and staying. Friday 24th will certainly be interesting
Original post by TrueDetective01
Our actual freedom would given back to us :smile:


That depends on your definition of freedom. I think we're pretty free as is.

Of course, you can define freedom in a way that is so specific that your arguments holds true. I.e. freedom is not being in the EU. But that would just be being partisan
Original post by ib_hopeful
It will have negative consequences on our economy and thereby our future and will greatly affect the political stability (or rather lack thereof) of our great nation.

Here is a report to support this claim: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA022.pdf

Please back up what you say with reliable sources. :smile:

If you don't want to read the whole report, here is the conclusion.
Screen Shot 2016-06-11 at 17.47.37.png


We pay £55 million/day into the EU.
When considering rebate we pay £35 million/day.
When considering both rebate and EU budget spent on us we pay £24 million/day.
We don't get to decide how the EU budget spent on us is spent.
We still pay an excess of £24 million/day into the EU.

The EU ETS bids off carbon emission allowances, then if a company still has some of its allowance left, they can sell it off to another company etc. etc. In essence there is a trade of allowances between companies, which are initially bid/auctioned off.

The numbering are just numbering different points in each paragraph / problems to the issue.

(1) The EU ETS increases energy prices. (2) Businesses also relocate, reducing competition, so energy prices can go higher. (3) Carbon emission isn't reduced to the same extent because there are the businesses that just go elsewhere where carbon emission isn't taxed. So we mostly get left with higher energy prices.

(1) Higher energy prices and (2) (This this problem hurting the steel industry is now not because of the EU) the EU tariff of 9% on dumped Chinese steel hurting our steel industry. Redundancy etc. etc., because no one can compete with this dumped steel. (Dumped means sold below cost of production.)(Though bizarrely the UK rejected a proposal by the EU to increase the tariff. I do acknowledge this as a fault by our own government, though I haven't looked too much into it to know the reasoning.) (3) The steel industry is also subjected to the EU ETS.

It's greatly beneficial for the EU single market to still trade with us, because we're the biggest export market for the rest of the EU.

The CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) has a tariff on many agricultural goods from non-EU countries, t protect EU trade. This reduces competition, and has increased our food prices. Why do you think food is a lot cheaper in the US? This prevents farmers in non-EU countries to sell to a market of £500 million. This stalls development in LEDCs (less-economically-developed countries.)

Out of the EU we'd be able to make free trade deals with countries specific to our industries and our own problems.

There are other economic arguments, but this is the only ones that I could talk with with certainty because I haven't researched or at all debated the rest. I haven't sourced because I really need to be revising right now :tongue: and I'm sorry this isn't eloquently put.

There's also the issue that the EU budget that is spent on us comes with an EU label; propaganda, which is immoral when we still pay an excess into the EU.

There's also a plethora of undemocratic arguments (I'd happily give) but you said you wanted economic arguments so I won't include those now.

(The arguments I can't talk with certainty are about fisheries, shrinking trading bloc EU is (don't fully understand and haven't at all researched), us bailing out other EU countries/member states.)

I promise I'll give sources when I have a lot of time (but that may be a while yet, 'cos I still have 5 more exams.)(And I've already wasted too much time on here and the Internet.)(And if it's any consolation to you I can't vote yet; not of voting age.)
Original post by Fullofsurprises
There are many who think the Tory Party is going to divide in two after this anyway, regardless of the outcome.

One of the saddest things about a Leave vote would be that it would be the working people of the country voting against their own interests on behalf of a corrupt group of reactionary politicians who represent City tax evasion interests. Eg, people like Farage and the right wing of the Conservative Party.


I don;t think they will divide though. FPTP. The conservative party seems to be less prone to sectarian splits for some reason. Labour have a bigger chance of that surely with the history of the SDP etc? If we had PR maybe. I tihnk it is more likely there will be leadership chance.

"reactionary politicians who represent City tax evasion interests"

You mean Cameron and George Osborne? Oh wait, they want us to remain.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by ChaoticButterfly
I don;t think they will divide though. FPTP. The conservative party seems to be less prone to sectarian splits for some reason. Labour have a bigger chance of that surely with the history of the SDP etc? If we had PR maybe. I tihnk it is more likely there will be leadership chance.

"reactionary politicians who represent City tax evasion interests"

You mean Cameron and George Osborne? Oh wait, they want us to remain.


Or do they? Many sources seem to think Cameron is really for Leave.

I think what is clear though is that the parts of the wealthy Right that have a clear interest in exploiting working people are all for Leave. When they talk about freedom, they don't mean for ordinary people - they mean the freedom to treat people like ****.

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