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Polls put leave back in the lead with 1 day to go

The final Survation poll has put Leave back in the lead by 45% to Remain's 44%.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Two days ago YouGov also had leave in the lead by 44% to 42%. I think what we can fairly say is that it's too close to call and probably a coin toss at this point.

As a Leaver, I take some comfort from the knowledge that the demographic which has the strongest Leave lead (the elderly) are also the most likely to vote, and the demographic with the strongest remain lead (18-29s) is the least likely to vote. There is also a significant enthusiasm gap overall with people who vote lead more likely to be enthused and absolutely determined to take advantage of the one chance they're likely to have.
aaaaaah
Day of reckoning!
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ATW1
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I've been following the Financial Times' Poll of Polls and it too has Leave back in the lead at 45/44.
Original post by Thutmose-III
The final Survation poll has put Leave back in the lead by 45% to Remain's 44%.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Two days ago YouGov also had leave in the lead by 44% to 42%. I think what we can fairly say is that it's too close to call and probably a coin toss at this point.

As a Leaver, I take some comfort from the knowledge that the demographic which has the strongest Leave lead (the elderly) are also the most likely to vote, and the demographic with the strongest remain lead (18-29s) is the least likely to vote. There is also a significant enthusiasm gap overall with people who vote lead more likely to be enthused and absolutely determined to take advantage of the one chance they're likely to have.


I hope Leave win - although I think they weight the polls for demographics, differential turnout, etc.
Original post by ODES_PDES
Day of reckoning!


Indeed. If Leave does prevail, I can't wait to hear the wailing, the shrieking and the gnashing of the teeth from the euro elite. Juncker will probably flip out completely. Left liberals and the metropolitan elite will issue laughable threats to leave the country forever.

But it will be a new day and a rebirth of freedom, I can't wait for the opportunity for this country to truly take its destiny in its own hands
you say potato i say pomme de terre.

bear™ says

Don't Pull Out...It Would Be Very Messy
Original post by frivolousfretter
I hope Leave win - although I think they weight the polls for demographics, differential turnout, etc.


The weighting is inherently tricky and more an art than a science. For example, one of the polling agencies assigned 75% of "Don't knows" to the Remain vote, whereas in fact they might just not vote.

Also self-reporting of likelihood to vote was found to be a poor measure in the 2015 polling. But we shall see, I think it's likely it will be very close but it's also possible the polling agencies will completely miss it and there will be a significant and substantial majority for Leave that they failed to detect. I very much doubt it could go the other way

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