Britain entering a recession?

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That implies minimum wage is the only factor. In the US on the other hand you can make comparisons because different states have different minimum wages, comparing similar states allows analysis of the effect.

Exactly as the theory predicts when you have two states which are economically similar, one at federal minimum the other with a higher state minimum an increase in federal causes relative harm to the one at federal minimum.

Simple fact of the matter is that if you increase minimum wage a business have fewer staff in the short - medium term compared to not increasing unless they have a real increase in pre wage profits vs the increase in minimum.

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Different states also have different economic climates. You can't simply isolate one factor between states than you can between countries or cities here.

The 'evidence' that raising nmw is at best inconclusive, with many studies showing no correlation between the two.

It was predicted there would be a mass exodus of businesses following the nmw, it didn't happen.

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Reply 101

InnerTemple

Original post by Jammy Duel

There is empirical evidence that the minimum wage harms jobs, even the government admits it.

Don't forget though... touching the employment rights that the EU has protected (such as minimum wage) would be electoral suicide...

Reply 102

InnerTemple

Original post by pol pot noodles

I seriously hope someone as intelligent as you isn't actually suggesting that these four cherry-picked examples somehow proves your point.

Imbecile: "Raa raaa raaa... all the rich oligarchs and hedge fund managers supported remain!"
Informed person: "Well here are X number of major Oligarchs and hedge fund managers who supported leave..."*
Imbecile: "Whaaa? You can't use those people!!! Cry cry cry..." **

Ahhh... leavers are so funny.*

Reply 103

Jammy Duel

Original post by Bornblue

You now seem to be saying that different states with similar economies and economic climates have different economic climates while UK cities with different economies and economic climates have the same economic climate :confused:

Comparisons between similar US states gives a far better indicator than a country with a unitary government (that admits that increasing minimum wage harms jobs).

Original post by InnerTemple

Don't forget though... touching the employment rights that the EU has protected (such as minimum wage) would be electoral suicide...

A legally mandated minimum wage is not protected by the EU.

Reply 104

username878267

Original post by Jammy Duel

Comparisons between similar US states gives a far better indicator than a country with a unitary government (that admits that increasing minimum wage harms jobs).

A legally mandated minimum wage is not protected by the EU.

There is no real evidence that the nmw, if done correctly causes harm to jobs. Obviously if it goes too extreme it will, but having a fairly moderate minimum wage has certainly not caused businesses and 'wealth creators' to flock en masse as was predicted.

Reply 105

Alex from almanis

In terms of likelihood of a recession, the Almanis crowd puts the chances of a recession occurring before the end of the year at about 35%, which is reasonably low: https://app.almanis.com/#/outcomes/136

Reply 106

GenialGermanGent

Original post by Alex from almanis

In terms of likelihood of a recession, the Almanis crowd puts the chances of a recession occurring before the end of the year at about 35%, which is reasonably low

WTF is almanis?

NIESR puts it at 50% by end of next year (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36953247). Even if the UK escapes recession, growth will be minimal. Nice job, Brexiteers!

Reply 107

Alex from almanis

Original post by TitanicTeutonicPhil

WTF is almanis?

NIESR puts it at 50% by end of next year (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36953247). Even if the UK escapes recession, growth will be minimal. Nice job, Brexiteers!

Almanis is a crowd prediction market. It effectively works like a betting market where users can stake points on outcomes that they think are likely to happen. Similar to CNN's political prediction market or Good Judgement.

Reply 108

Dalek1099

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Lots of warnings coming through now about the economy. The Bank of England is widely forecast to be cutting rates shortly, from the already-low 0.5% (once they've done this cut, that method of stimulating the economy will be fully exhausted) - the all-important Service PMI (which predicts what services are going to buy) is sharply down and many economists are predicting a recession.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/03/ftse-100-to-open-lower-hsbc-gets-pummelled-and-next-faces-higher/

So much for all the lies from the Brexiteers about everything looking much better than Remainers said it would. In fact, if anything, it's looking worse.

The economy is struggling due to the uncertainty Brexit brings this would always be the case after making such a big decision.

We can't really say anything until the full details of Brexit have emerged and seen how the market responds to them.

Reply 109

Laomedeia

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Around my part of the country, we have always been in recession (with the exception of one Wednesday afternoon when 3 people found work).

Seriously, the minimum wage where I live is not just law, but a religion. You would be forgiven for thinking that the minimum wage (living wage or whatever its called now), is actually the maximum wage. Fortunately I'm one of the lucky few earning more, but its not a permanent position. There is always news stories of XXXX amount of jobs to be lost but not that many involving job creation.