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Why are economists so useless?

Seems like Britain isn't going into a recession.

I think they need some new crystal balls.



I found this little gem tucked away on the Independent (Although, you can bet if the forecast would have been negative it would have been BIG headlines for them.)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-city-of-london-economists-scrap-recession-forecasts-a7228671.html

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"Brexit hasn't happened yet, wait till we properly leave".

I had no doubts the UK would succeed even after Brexit.
Armchair warriors
Original post by Supersaps
Seems like Britain isn't going into a recession.

I think they need some new crystal balls.



I found this little gem tucked away on the Independent (Although, you can bet if the forecast would have been negative it would have been BIG headlines for them.)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-city-of-london-economists-scrap-recession-forecasts-a7228671.html

SS


regardless of their success rate, they're still better than any of you keyboard warriors at predicting what will happen
Reply 4
Original post by alevelstresss
regardless of their success rate, they're still better than any of you keyboard warriors at predicting what will happen


Absolutely. But I think we tend to trust economists a lot more than we trust keyboard warriors.

But they seem to have gotten every single big issue in our modern world wrong, haven't they?


- Didn't forecast the banking crisis

- Wrong about the Eurozone when we didn't take the Euro

- Wrong about (at least) the immediate aftermath of brexit.


Why do you think they've been wrong side of pretty much every big issue in the last 20 years? They've been substantially less accurate than a monkey at the aforementioned keyboard.


SS
Original post by Supersaps
Absolutely. But I think we tend to trust economists a lot more than we trust keyboard warriors.

But they seem to have gotten every single big issue in our modern world wrong, haven't they?


- Didn't forecast the banking crisis

- Wrong about the Eurozone when we didn't take the Euro

- Wrong about (at least) the immediate aftermath of brexit.


Why do you think they've been wrong side of pretty much every big issue in the last 20 years? They've been substantially less accurate than a monkey at the aforementioned keyboard.


SS


because economics is a notoriously unpredictable thing, regardless of their skill to predict economic outcomes, their relative skill is the best
Original post by Pinkberry_y
Armchair warriors


So is everyone in 2016, get with it.
Reply 7
Original post by alevelstresss
because economics is a notoriously unpredictable thing, regardless of their skill to predict economic outcomes, their relative skill is the best


So, if it's so unpredictable and no one - not even the experts - can get anything right, what's the point in an economist at all? Why do they all feel the need to speak up about these issues?


I think the answer is much more obvious.
Original post by Supersaps
So, if it's so unpredictable and no one - not even the experts - can get anything right, what's the point in an economist at all? Why do they all feel the need to speak up about these issues?


I think the answer is much more obvious.


because sharing your two cents on the potential risks of an economic decision is not the only thing economists do, and other forms of economics which aren't nationwide or global are more predictable
Original post by Supersaps
So, if it's so unpredictable and no one - not even the experts - can get anything right, what's the point in an economist at all? Why do they all feel the need to speak up about these issues?


I think the answer is much more obvious.


Because our situation would be a lot worse if it were not for economists. They may not be able to predict every last event, because that's impossible given the sheer number of variables, but they can put some decent measures in place to help mitigate the circumstances and stimulate recovery. If you gave some random person complete control over economic policy in the UK then chances are we'd be doomed within weeks. For starters, no one would place confidence in this person's ability to manage the country's finances.
Reply 10
I see it more as the economic analysts making their earlier predictions contingent on Article 50 being enacted immediately, as promised by Cameron, and they're adjusting their forecasts in light of different circumstances.

Sometimes the weather forecast is wrong, so clearly meteorologists are useless as well.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Supersaps
Seems like Britain isn't going into a recession.

I think they need some new crystal balls.



I found this little gem tucked away on the Independent (Although, you can bet if the forecast would have been negative it would have been BIG headlines for them.)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-city-of-london-economists-scrap-recession-forecasts-a7228671.html

SS


My main issue with this story is Morgan Stanley trying to coin the phrase 'Brecession'. :angry:
Reply 12
Original post by Petrue


Sometimes the weather forecast is wrong, so clearly meteorologists are useless as well.


In fairness to meteorologists, they didn't predict a hailstorm of meteors which then turned out to be a light sunday afternoon drizzle.

They are at least right from time to time.
(edited 7 years ago)
Reply 13
Original post by alevelstresss
because sharing your two cents on the potential risks of an economic decision is not the only thing economists do, and other forms of economics which aren't nationwide or global are more predictable


Absolutely. I agree. Economists perform a vital, intrinsic and irreplaceable role for our economy.

However, predicting the future after political events, it would seem, is not one of them.


Remaining more bipartisan would, I think, save a lot of embarrassment.


SS
Well, OP, it's like old saying goes: the only people around who know less about economics than politicians are economists.....

It's most likely because most of them have never had actual jobs before so they don't know the practicalities of how things really happen.

You mentioned the banking crisis and the pound versus Euro debate. Pretty much everybody who was working in the city and in related industries saw both a mile off.*
Original post by Supersaps
Seems like Britain isn't going into a recession.

I think they need some new crystal balls.



I found this little gem tucked away on the Independent (Although, you can bet if the forecast would have been negative it would have been BIG headlines for them.)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-city-of-london-economists-scrap-recession-forecasts-a7228671.html

SS


Economists will give you the answer exactly 2 years after may decides to invoke article 50. Yes -thats how long it takes for their crystal ball to work
But jokes aside, we are still IN the eu

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Original post by Supersaps
Seems like Britain isn't going into a recession.

I think they need some new crystal balls.



I found this little gem tucked away on the Independent (Although, you can bet if the forecast would have been negative it would have been BIG headlines for them.)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-city-of-london-economists-scrap-recession-forecasts-a7228671.html

SS


Why is your queen so useless.
I used to try and support economists, and I do generally support academics, but there's many convincing pieces out there - of which I recommend this - that do point out the deficiencies of academic economics in recent times (most notably in the buildup to the 2008 mortgage crisis as others have already pointed out).

I should point out though that there were still a proportion of economists who definitely predicted some sort of bubble; the issue was that they had underestimated its potential impact on the economy (at least that's my understanding), which is still an issue of course.
Original post by Mathemagicien
Can you imagine how complex economics is? Its a wonder that they've had any success at all with it.

Economists may get a lot wrong, but they get it right more often than the average person would.


It's why I don't absolutely trust experts, but I trust them far more than I trust the "Dr Googles" of the world (the public). There's also the issue of media bias and selective memory: doom+gloom stories and ecstatic victory are far easier to sell and remember than moderately negative or positive.
Reply 19
Original post by Mathemagicien
Can you imagine how complex economics is? Its a wonder that they've had any success at all with it.

Economists may get a lot wrong, but they get it right more often than the average person would.


You're exactly right.

Why then do economists continue to pronounce with such hubris and confidence on these complex issues?

Is there a general pressure on them from media, political parties and to some extent the general public for them to give predictions even when they're not 100% confidence. Or are they just overconfident?

Either way, they've got almost all the big issues wrong in the last 20 years and on that basis alone, we should revise our trust in them considerably.


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