Just one sec...
Hey there! Sign in to have your say on this topicNew here? Join for free to post

Donald Trump will win the US Presidential Election.

Announcements Posted on
Take our short survey, £100 of Amazon vouchers to be won! 23-09-2016
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    In a little over two months, Americans will go to the polls to elect the next President of the United States. The two candidates: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, have both been regarded as two of the most unpopular candidates in the US's electoral history, however only one of the two will secure enough votes to make it to the White House and become the next Commander and Chief.

    From the onset of this year's presidential race, Donald Trump has been marked as the rank outsider by many political pundits given his short appeal to many of America's key demographics in many of America's key electoral states. Since the beginning of March - according to average poll estimates aggregated by Real Clear Politics - Donald Trump was polling at 38 percent as oppose to Hillary who had a 12 point lead: polling at upwards of 50 percent in some polls at the time. However, remarkable changes in Donald Trump's temperament, his willingness to engage with minority communities, Hillary's health woes, her negative attack-campaign, persistent Islamic-inspired terror and people's dismissal of mainstream bias has allowed Donald Trump - as of this month - to rid Hillary's lead of more 12 points in March, down to less than 1 point according to the latest aggregate poll data.

    Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

    The US, however, does not elect its presidents in accordance to popular vote. A notable example of this being in 2000, where although Al Gore - the Democratic nominee for President - was beaten by George Bush - the Republican nominee for President - even though Al Gore received more of the popular vote from the electorate.

    Each year, presidential nominees battle it out in so-called purple states - states which switch to either red (Republican) or blue (Democrat) in each election - in order to gain enough electoral college votes to reach the 270 point minimum.

    First let's consider the states which definitely* vote for Hillary Clinton:

    Hillary Clinton (definite*)
    Spoiler:
    Show
    - California, 55 points. [Clinton +25]
    - Washington, 12 points. [Clinton +15]
    - Vermont, 3 points. [Clinton +18]
    - Massachusetts, 11 points. [Clinton +23]
    - Delaware, 3 points. [Clinton +10]
    - Illinois, 20 points. [Clinton +22]
    - Connecticut, 7 points. [Clinton +15]
    - Hawaii, 4 points. [no data]
    - Maryland, 11 points. [Clinton +33]
    - District of Columbia, 3 points. [no data]
    - New Jersey, 14 points. [Clinton +12]
    - New York, 29 points. [Clinton +19]
    Total (definite*) Democratic votes: 171

    And now let's consider the states which will definitely* vote for Donald Trump:

    Donald Trump (definite*)
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Utah, 6 points. [Donald Trump +15]
    Idaho, 4 points. [Donald Trump +21]
    Wyoming, 3 points. [no data]
    Montana, 3 points. [no data]
    North Dakota, 3 points. [no data]
    South Dakota, 3 points. [no data]
    Nebraska, 5 points. [no data]
    Kansas, 6 points. [Donald Trump +12]
    Oklahoma, 7 points. [Donald Trump +15]
    Arkansas, 6 points. [Donald Trump +28]
    Louisiana, 8 points. [Donald Trump +21]
    Mississippi, 6 points. [Donald Trump +13]
    Alabama, 9 points. [Donald Trump +24]
    Tennessee, 11 points. [Donald Trump +16]
    Kentucky, 8 points. [Donald Trump +13]
    West Virginia, 5 points. [Donald Trump +18]
    Total (Definite*) Republican votes: 106

    *states which show either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton leading by more than 10 percentage points or an assumed victory given past voting trends for states where data is not provided.

    Now let's consider the states which will likely** vote for Hillary Clinton:

    Hillary Clinton (likely**)
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Oregon, 7 points. [Hillary Clinton +9]
    Minnesota, 10 points. [Hillary Clinton +5]
    Wisconsin, 10 points. [Hillary Clinton +6]
    Pennsylvania, 20 points. [Hillary Clinton +8]
    New Mexico, 5 points. [Hillary Clinton +9]
    Total (likely**) Democratic votes: 52

    And now let's consider the states which will likely** vote for Donald Trump:

    Donald Trump (likely**)
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Texas, 38 points. [Donald Trump +7]
    Iowa, 6 points. [Donald Trump +8]
    Indiana, 11 points. [Donald Trump +7]
    Total (likely**) Republican votes: 55

    **states which show either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton leading by more than 5 but less than 10 percentage points.

    Now let's consider the final states***:

    Maine
    Spoiler:
    Show
    The state of Maine has not been won by a Republican since 1988. Last year, Obama was able to carry the state of Maine by nearly 16 percentage points, making it a safe state in the eyes of many Democrats. However, the most recent poll data suggests that Hillary's lead in Maine has shrunk down to a worrying 3 percentage points. Maine is an educated state with a high percentage of whites. However, Donald Trump has been struggling to win with educated whites - especially educated white women - which is why I expect the state to remain blue.
    Maine, 4 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Maine

    Arizona
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Over time, the large and growing Hispanic population in Arizona has made the state - a traditionally Republican seat - into a contested state when it comes to the General. Although the state has voted for Republican in the last four elections, it did lose to Bill Clinton in 1996. However, consistent poll data suggests the Republicans have the edge in the state - and the recent election of a Republican governor - is why I expect the state to turn red.
    Arizona, 11 points. [Donald Trump +2]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Arizona

    Michigan
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Since 1992, the state of Michigan has since voted Democrat for every Presidential Election. However, the Democrats' lead in the state has been - on the whole - shrinking and the presence of the Republican Party has become more existent in recent years. Even though Obama won the state by around 10 percentage points in 2012, latest poll data suggests Hillary's lead in the state to be as low as 3 points. Even so, I expect the state to remain blue even though Trump's polling in the state has been increasing.
    Michigan, 16 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Michigan

    Rhode Island
    Spoiler:
    Show
    This is historically another safe seat for the Democratic Party, however Donald Trump's polling in the state has been increasing. Barack Obama won the state of Rhode Island by more than 25 percentage points in 2012, but the latest poll data by Emerson suggests that lead has shrunk to just 3 points. However, I'd expect the state of Rhode Island to remain a safe seat for Hillary.
    Rhode Island, 4 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Rhode_Island

    Georgia
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Much like the state of Arizona, the growing Hispanic population - especially in major cities like Atlanta - in Georgia has put pressure on the red state from the Democrats. Even though the Republicans have won the state since 1992, that lead is somewhat decreasing. However, not a single recent opinion poll has put Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in the state and I expect Georgia to remain blue in the General.
    Georgia, 16 points. [Donald Trump +3]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Georgia

    Virginia
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Since 2008, the state of Virginia has become a safe seat for the Democratic Party. However, the Democrats' lead in the state is still not large enough to consider it a firm blue state. Barack Obama managed to win the state by around 5 percentage points in the last two elections, however many put this down to the large black population. Hillary Clinton does not have as high a lead with the blacks as Obama did, which puts into contention the outcome of the state this year. However, polling data suggests a 3 point lead in the state for the Democratic nominee and I expect it to remain blue.
    Virginia, 13 points. [Hillary Clinton +3]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Virginia

    Nevada
    Spoiler:
    Show
    The state of Nevada has been alternating between the Republicans and the Democrats for decades, however its small population - and therefore its low electoral points - has meant that it hasn't been targeted by afore presidential nominees. However, given the closeness of this year's race the state of Nevada could prove detrimental. Donald Trump's polling in the state has improved month on month, and the latest data shows Donald Trump leading in the state by more than 3 percentage points. I expect Donald Trump to take the state of Nevada.
    Nevada, 6 points. [Donald Trump +3]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Nevada

    New Hampshire
    Spoiler:
    Show
    New Hampshire has traditionally voted Democrat, even though the seat is considered a purple state given the closeness of the vote in recent years. New Hampshire is one of the few states in New England to consider voting for Donald Trump, and recent poll data suggests he may do better than his previous Republican nominees in the state. However, I expect Hillary to win by a narrow margin in the state. This is because of the high percentage of educated whites in the state and the most recent poll data.
    New Hampshire, 4 points. [Hillary Clinton +2]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/New_Hampshire

    Florida
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Florida is perhaps one of the closest states in every presidential election, with its high electoral points making it one of the key battleground states in every General. In 2000, the state of Florida was so close in its choice of candidates that a recount was ordered - which overturned the vote in favour of Al Gore and made George Bush the US President. However, the most recent poll data suggests Trump is leading comfortably in the state and I expect it to go to Donald Trump.
    Florida, 29 points. [Donald Trump +3]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida

    North Carolina
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Like Florida, North Carolina is also a tossup state and it has become battleground state during the General. Although it votes Obama in 2008, in 2012 it voted Republican. The latest poll data shows that the two candidates are tied in the state, but given the trend of the poll data and the shrinking of Hillary's lead, I expect North Carolina to go red.
    North Carolina, 15 points. [Donald Trump +/-0]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/North_Carolina

    Colorado
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Colorado is another one of the states which alternates between Republican and Democrat year on year. Although the Democrats won it in 2008 and 2012, the Republicans won it in 2000 and 2004. Hillary's lead in the state has shrunk tremendously in recent months, from around 15 points at the start of the year, to the latest poll conducted by Emerson College showing a Trump lead by 4 percentage points. The trend in the polls, its previous voting patterns and its demographics is enough for me to believe that Colorado will turn red in the General.
    Colorado, 9 points. [Donald Trump +4]

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Colorado

    (forgot to write about Ohio, however it will turn red in November. Poll data has been very favourable towards Trump in recent weeks and the demographics also favour the Trump campaign as well. Trump's lead in the state is a notable 5 points.)

    http://www.270towin.com/states/Ohio

    ***states which show either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton leading by less than 5 points.

    My final election map for the 2016 US Presidential Election is:

    Name:  US.PNG
Views: 29
Size:  52.4 KB

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew..._2016#Oklahoma

    Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    RIP world
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    Nice analysis, although your conclusion does worry me! If the polls are to be believed (sometimes they are accurate, sometimes not), then this will turn out to be much closer than everyone first thought. I think it will largely depend on the events running up to polling day, such as any additional Islamic terrorist attacks, or any insults thrown either way by Trump or Hillary that happen to offend a decently-sized demographic (such as Trump about the Muslim soldier, or Hillary about 'deplorables').
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    Make America Great Again!
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    I predicted brexit will happen, it did. Same for Trump, he has the silent but powerful force behind him.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    Yep I agree. I stated in one of the threads regarding brexit it back in June that there was an undercurrent of real anger in the provinces and that people in the metropolitan areas were seriously underestimating this anger.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by JRKinder)
    Nice analysis, although your conclusion does worry me! If the polls are to be believed (sometimes they are accurate, sometimes not), then this will turn out to be much closer than everyone first thought. I think it will largely depend on the events running up to polling day, such as any additional Islamic terrorist attacks, or any insults thrown either way by Trump or Hillary that happen to offend a decently-sized demographic (such as Trump about the Muslim soldier, or Hillary about 'deplorables'.
    There will be a lot of factors which could change the overall swing of either campaign, but if anything, the Trump campaign has been receiving more support in recent weeks and the Clinton campaign has been becoming more unpopular. The most important aspect of the entire election will be the debates. If Trump can perform well in the three debates - and Hillary has one of her episodes - then Donald Trump will be the next president.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    I wonder whether if the final result is so close in favour of Trump that the Democrats will ask for a second election?
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    Well when the world goes to 5hit at least I will be in the privileged position to inform the mouth breathing troglodytes who voted for Trump, "I told you so."
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Dodgypirate)
    I wonder whether if the final result is so close in favour of Trump that the Democrats will ask for a second election?
    Only 9% of possible voters made Hillary and Trump the candidates.
    Spoiler:
    Show
    I just don't want the world economy to crash/people to die.
    Offline

    3
    well you have a 50/50 chance. Am sure an octopus somewhere must be making the prediction as well. If you are wrong then this will get buried anyway.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    Maine district number 2 is Trump .. Also PA is going Trump

    http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/northampton/

    I personally think NH will go Trump, could be wrong about that.

    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Orbital_Rising)
    Well when the world goes to 5hit at least I will be in the privileged position to inform the mouth breathing troglodytes who voted for Trump, "I told you so."
    Strangely enough that's what a lot of people were saying about the EU vote and literally predicted the end of the world if Brexit happened.

    Trump getting voted in will be a breath of fresh air.

    I don't like politicians and I don't trust politicians. They just feel that they have a right to lie to the public whenever it suits them. I would trust Trump before any politician.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by nutz99)
    Strangely enough that's what a lot of people were saying about the EU vote and literally predicted the end of the world if Brexit happened.

    Trump getting voted in will be a breath of fresh air.

    I don't like politicians and I don't trust politicians. They just feel that they have a right to lie to the public whenever it suits them. I would trust Trump before any politician.

    Sure... because a known conman who promises to tear up the paris climate agreement and geneva convention, ban a 1.2bn member religious group from his country, freeze ALL new regulations in the US, deregulate wall street (that thing that almost destroyed the global economy in 2008), build a giant wall he can't afford (by making Mexico pay for it) and vastly reduce taxes on the richest, while raising them on the poorest, is about on par for bad as Brexit and won't end up hurting anyone.
    Spoiler:
    Show
    That 'fresh air' you're talking about will be the stench of the generations-who-will-have-to-clean-up-his-mess' blood.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by MathMoFarah)
    Sure... because a known conman who promises to tear up the paris climate agreement and geneva convention, ban a 1.2bn member religious group from his country, freeze ALL new regulations in the US, deregulate wall street (that thing that almost destroyed the global economy in 2008), build a giant wall he can't afford (by making Mexico pay for it) and vastly reduce taxes on the richest, while raising them on the poorest, is about on par for bad as Brexit and won't end up hurting anyone.
    Spoiler:
    Show
    That 'fresh air' you're talking about will be the stench of the generations-who-will-have-to-clean-up-his-mess' blood.
    The taxes I can agree on but a lot of the other policies will be endorsed by a lot of the US population because it will only benefit the US. I don't believe he would deregulate wall street as he would lose too many influential friends.

    Still a lot better than that lying toad Clinton.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    Donald Trump = Leicester City

    (except he is red not blue...)
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by nutz99)
    I don't believe he would deregulate wall street as he would lose too many influential friends.
    Do you know what you're talking about?
    The 'influential friends' are the ones who want it deregulated
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    someone please debunk this so i can sleep easier tonight?
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Cain Tesfaye)
    someone please debunk this so i can sleep easier tonight?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk7U60msvYA
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Cain Tesfaye)
    someone please debunk this so i can sleep easier tonight?
 
 
 
Write a reply…

Reply

Submit reply

Register

Thanks for posting! You just need to create an account in order to submit the post
  1. this can't be left blank
    that username has been taken, please choose another Forgotten your password?
  2. this can't be left blank
    this email is already registered. Forgotten your password?
  3. this can't be left blank

    6 characters or longer with both numbers and letters is safer

  4. this can't be left empty
    your full birthday is required
  1. Oops, you need to agree to our Ts&Cs to register
  2. Slide to join now Processing…

Updated: September 19, 2016
TSR Support Team

We have a brilliant team of more than 60 Support Team members looking after discussions on The Student Room, helping to make it a fun, safe and useful place to hang out.

Poll
Who will be the next permanent England boss?
Useful resources

The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.