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Lib Dems: 2nd party

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    Will the Lib Dems emerge from 2020 and beyond as Labour's replacement electorally?

    It seems logical that they will significantly strengthen their Westminster base with Labour disaffecting many moderate voters, and many floating voters will be looking for an alternative after 10 years of Tory government

    Yet they are polling dreadfully, almost never in double figures and almost always below UKIP

    The Liberals were once a dominant force in British politics and with Labour now locked in to a Corbynite future I would like to see them pick up a bit
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    Seems they are dead set on our membership of the EU, so no chance.
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    lol labour seats will just turn into tory seats, Lib Dems have even less credibility than Labour at its lowest. The coalition killed them
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    (Original post by Pulse.)
    Seems they are dead set on our membership of the EU, so no chance.
    There is a demand for that though, and while Leavers will be split across Labour, Tory and UKIP Remainers will be invited to shore up around the Lib Dems

    I think it is probably their greatest electoral asset
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    (Original post by PrinceOfOrange)
    lol labour seats will just turn into tory seats, Lib Dems have even less credibility than Labour at its lowest. The coalition killed them
    I don't know. Many seats are Lab-Lib marginals. Will enough voters swing to the Tories to overturn a sufficient topping up of Lib Dem support in these places?

    I think they will make gains in previous heartlands like Scotland and Cornwall but the rest is unclear. I have tried to find a list of marginal seats at 2015 but so far have only found 2010

    The TV debates will play an important role in Farron positioning himself as the only viable opposition to the Tories and the only champion of Remainers

    I would predict an increase of about 30 seats at this stage
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    I imagine they'll be slightly more popular now that the infamous Clegg is gone, but I'm not expecting anything ground-breaking.
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    Will the Lib Dems emerge from 2020 and beyond as Labour's replacement electorally?

    It seems logical that they will significantly strengthen their Westminster base with Labour disaffecting many moderate voters, and many floating voters will be looking for an alternative after 10 years of Tory government
    Not going to happen. Moderate Labour supporters aren't going to go and vote Liberal Democrat. If anything they dislike the Lib Dems more than the Tories. The Lib Dems decision to go into coalition in 2010 ended any real chance they ever had of appealing to the centre-left.

    In any case, the Lib Dems are basically just a free-market version of Corbyn. They're anti-Trident, have a terrible record on being anti-Israel and allowing anti-semitic nutbags in their party, they are mindlessly and illogically opposed to pretty much all forms of reasonable counter-terrorism legislation. They have Corbynite foreign/security policy inclinations along with a free-market dogma, in some ways that makes them even worse.

    I don't know any Labour moderate (and I know a lot, including some who you probably would have heard of) who are interested in supporting the Liberal Democrats. It's more likely that the Labour moderates will split off to form a "True Labour" (or whatever it would be called) party, taking a majority of the PLP with them and extinguishing the Corbynite rump within a couple of elections.

    The Liberal Democrats did extremely will during the Blair years because Labour/progressive/small-c working-class voters in Lib Dem / Tory contests would vote Lib Dem. They have absolutely no interest in doing that anymore, hence the Liberal Democrat implosion at the last election. They would rather vote Labour/UKIP/Green in a seat where they have no chance than support the Yellow-bellied Liberals. In any case, the Liberal Democrats never have and never will have a working-class base in the north or London that would ever give them a shot at winning the sort of number of seats that would put them into contention for government.

    It's worth remembering that the Liberal Democrats have 8 seats, talking about becoming the second largest party is hilariously implausible. Maybe when they get back to being the third-largest party in the parliament, and jettison their more toxic foreign policy and free market dogmas, they might get a look in.
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    I don't know. Many seats are Lab-Lib marginals.
    Actually there are very few. The vast majority of seats are Lab-Conservative (or now Lab-KIP). The vast majority of seats where the Lib Dems used to be competitive is where they face the Conservatives, that's why the Conservatives wiped them out after the last election when Labour voters declined to continue supporting the Lib Dems in such seats and protest voters found other parties (particularly UKIP... look at the election results to see just how many Lib Dem voters broke for UKIP; they were previously voters who were small-c working-class type people, wouldn't vote Conservative and Labour wasn't competitive... seats like Taunton Deane). It was that willingness of Labour/progressive/working-class to vote tactically in Lib-Dem/Cons races that put the Lib Dems in the 50+ seat position in the first place. They're certainly not going to get those UKIP voters back

    Will enough voters swing to the Tories to overturn a sufficient topping up of Lib Dem support in these places?
    There won't be a substantial topping up of any sort. The Lib Dems are toxic to most politically-minded Labour supporters. Their poll numbers have barely moved even with the Corbyn ascendancy. If anything a "True Labour" offshoot is likely to pick off centrist Lib Dem voters

    I think they will make gains in previous heartlands like Scotland and Cornwall
    The Lib Dems could plausibly pick up a couple of seats in Cornwall, a few more in Scotland. But Truro and Falmouth constituency is a good case study for the Lib Dems position in the country generally. In 2010 the Tories won 41% to the LD's 40%. In 2015 the Tories won 44% to the Lib Dems 16%. Labour went from about 9% to 15% and UKIP from 3% to 11%. Greens went from 1% to 8%.

    The Lib Dems have fundamentally alienated the tactical voting supporters in Lib Dem - Conservative contests. It is highly unlikely they will get them back; they did well in the 2000s by pretending to be to Labour's left and picking up, as I said, tactical voters and protest voters. They will never get the protest vote back (or at least not for 20 years), and the tactical voters have split to other parties.

    The TV debates will play an important role in Farron positioning himself as the only viable opposition to the Tories and the only champion of Remainers
    Will Farron even be allowed in the TV debates? Everyone agreed having too many parties on stage was a cluster****, they will probably just keep it to the four major parties (Cons, Lab, SNP and UKIP)
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    There is a demand for that though
    If the election is soon, the Lib Dems haven't had enough time to get themselves ready and position themselves. The result will broadly be the same as last year for them.

    If the election is in 2020, we'll already be out and there's nothing they can do about it. If they insist on running on yesterday's issue they will become even more irrelevant. Polls show that 70% of those who voted Remain are uninterested in a second referendum; they accept the decision has been made and just want the government to get on with it.

    Demanding a second referendum is a fringe position that is unlikely to yield a significant number of votes once we are out of the EU, and rejoining would involve getting in on far worse terms than which we left (we would have to adopt the Euro, Schengen, no budget rebate, contribute to the Greek bailout).
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    (Original post by AlexanderHam)
    Demanding a second referendum is a fringe position that is unlikely to yield a significant number of votes once we are out of the EU, and rejoining would involve getting in on far worse terms than which we left (we would have to adopt the Euro, Schengen, no budget rebate, contribute to the Greek bailout).
    Not only that, it will lose potential voters in swathes, especially with Owen Smiths' potential voters.

    It is amazing how many of our political class support the above scenario, because of their own personal vanity and dogma.

    Pathetic worms.
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    (Original post by AlexanderHam)
    If the election is soon, the Lib Dems haven't had enough time to get themselves ready and position themselves. The result will broadly be the same as last year for them.
    It does not take a great deal to 'position' yourself as being in favour of remaining in the EU. TV debates would give them more than enough publicity

    If the election is in 2020, we'll already be out and there's nothing they can do about it. If they insist on running on yesterday's issue they will become even more irrelevant. Polls show that 70% of those who voted Remain are uninterested in a second referendum; they accept the decision has been made and just want the government to get on with it.

    Demanding a second referendum is a fringe position that is unlikely to yield a significant number of votes once we are out of the EU, and rejoining would involve getting in on far worse terms than which we left (we would have to adopt the Euro, Schengen, no budget rebate, contribute to the Greek bailout).
    You assume we will have left by 2020 which I am not sure of and nor is anyone else

    It isn't a fringe position at all; the third largest British party backs it, as does Owen Smith, many in Labour, Alastair Campbell and by your own figures (which I'd like to see a source for) 30% of those who voted Remain. Most of our Parliamentary representatives backed Remain and it is doubtful that in a vote on the issue they would support Brexit, as does the business world in the UK. There is a sense to hold another referendum on the actual terms of our exit and many of those who voted Leave - such as myself - want that second look at the biggest national political issue of our times.

    As to rejoining on harsher terms that strikes me as rampant speculation. No one knows what is going on and certainly no one can make these sorts of predictions reliably.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    Not only that, it will lose potential voters in swathes, especially with Owen Smiths' potential voters.

    It is amazing how many of our political class support the above scenario, because of their own personal vanity and dogma.

    Pathetic worms.
    Owen Smith has endorsed a second referendum precisely because it will increase his support
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    Owen Smith has endorsed a second referendum precisely because it will increase his support
    Not with his biggest amount of lost and potential Labour voters it won't- it is strategically moronic.
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    Given the state of the polls, probably not. Despite labour collapsing they aren't going to the Lib dems in particularly high numbers. Further, it's quite hard to actually take the place of a primary party, it takes decades given you need one of the primary parties to collapse, normally by filling a niche that lots of people can get around, which the Lib Dems don't particularly do, and will find it hard to do. If they go classical liberal or centre right the Tories react and suck up the votes, if they go centre left Labour do the same. It took extension of the franchise and over three decades for Labour to usurp the Liberals, if Labour don't react to the changing political landscape they won't survive, bit UKIP are in a stronger position to take their place.

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    (Original post by Fenice)
    There is a demand for that though, and while Leavers will be split across Labour, Tory and UKIP Remainers will be invited to shore up around the Lib Dems

    I think it is probably their greatest electoral asset
    did you just say "UKIP remainers"? :lol:
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    (Original post by sleepysnooze)
    did you just say "UKIP remainers"? :lol:
    There is a missing comma
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    (Original post by AlexanderHam)
    The Liberal Democrats did extremely will during the Blair years because Labour/progressive/small-c working-class voters in Lib Dem / Tory contests would vote Lib Dem. They have absolutely no interest in doing that anymore, hence the Liberal Democrat implosion at the last election. They would rather vote Labour/UKIP/Green in a seat where they have no chance than support the Yellow-bellied Liberals.
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    It took extension of the franchise and over three decades for Labour to usurp the Liberals, if Labour don't react to the changing political landscape they won't survive, bit UKIP are in a stronger position to take their place.

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    (Original post by Fenice)
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    Do you know what the important phrase is? Council by-elections

    The Lib Dems have this wonderful property that their strong areas are often due to the middle class liberal elite, i.e. they mostly fight with the Tories, UKIP on the other hand are strong in the working class areas that need winning to take Labour's place.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Do you know what the important phrase is? Council by-elections

    The Lib Dems have this wonderful property that their strong areas are often due to the middle class liberal elite, i.e. they mostly fight with the Tories, UKIP on the other hand are strong in the working class areas that need winning to take Labour's place.
    The important phrase is not 'council by-elections' but 'decline/increase in support'. The facts run exactly contrary to the forecast you have made of the relationship between support for the Lib Dems and UKIP

    Your second paragraph is tangential
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    Will the Lib Dems emerge from 2020 and beyond as Labour's replacement electorally?

    It seems logical that they will significantly strengthen their Westminster base with Labour disaffecting many moderate voters, and many floating voters will be looking for an alternative after 10 years of Tory government

    Yet they are polling dreadfully, almost never in double figures and almost always below UKIP

    The Liberals were once a dominant force in British politics and with Labour now locked in to a Corbynite future I would like to see them pick up a bit
    At the local elections in May (the only national contest outside of assembly elections) The Lib Dems saw their vote share largely unchanged vs 2012 (same boundary contest) although other party swings obviously allowed them to gain a few seats, this makes me doubt at this stage whether their vote share will change much in 2020 (albeit they have another chance in 2017 to make waves).

    While i can see your logic history is somewhat against you here. FPTP encourages tactical voting and two party tribalism and the Tories have previously had 13 years (51-64) and 18 years before that change occurred (and frankly they were against far stronger opposition). The new change in leader may also help them, especially since the Tories had the largest average lead in August of any incumbent since 1998.

    On the whole i think there is potential but i'll be watching their local election performances in May to see if there's a relative swing since 4 years ago as a sign of progress. Right now we can only say that they have stopped bleeding.

    (Original post by Fenice)
    There is a demand for that though, and while Leavers will be split across Labour, Tory and UKIP Remainers will be invited to shore up around the Lib Dems

    I think it is probably their greatest electoral asset
    The problem with this view is that your assuming people will base their vote on EU membership, they won't. Most of the country may have had a view one way or the other but i suspect that they are somewhat ambivalent like myself (i voted out but was not too bothered either way).

    Scottish replication is also unlikely because the SNP were a governing party doing things most people support up there (the Lib Dems meanwhile won't even defend their coalition policies). More importantly though the SNP managed to whip up the fury and passion of those who voted for their position whereas since the EU referendum only London has displayed that arrogant, condescending self obsession and in general elections, London is often unrepresentative due to the number of immigrants and metropolitan types, most remainers have unhappily accepted the result.

    ..

    Also, good to see you back T/B.
 
 
 
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