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Trump has won presidental election - he has the secert army

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The original poster is the reason why tsr needs to bring back negative rating.
Reply 61
+rep for the gif!
Original post by ckfeister
What about the " shy " voters, go and look it up. Clinton has no shy voters or barely any, Trump has a swing on the shy voters who haven't voted in decades. If its a white-dominated region by at least 70% they'll need +9% to win. 55% then +4% if lots of black % or other minorities -3% to win. Now go and do the polling again and see the results, check up Donald Trump shy voters if you want.


Googling "Donald Trump shy voters" just turns up lots of arguments against the hypothesis that there are a lot of shy Trump voters not giving his name in the polls.

We have zero evidence that the phenomenon exists. It wasn't present in the GOP primaries - in fact, if anything, the primary polls on average overstated Trump's support.

Also, Trump supporters don't remotely fit the stereotype of a "shy voter" cause. The archetypal example is the 1992 "shy Tories" - a case of Tory supporters being, in general, reluctant, unenthusiastic, and embarassed about their political leanings. Trump's supporters, by contrast, are extremely vocal, enthusiastic, and demonstrative of their political leanings. If anything, it's the Clinton campaign which more closely mirrors the 1992 Tories.

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Reply 63
Original post by anarchism101
Googling "Donald Trump shy voters" just turns up lots of arguments against the hypothesis that there are a lot of shy Trump voters not giving his name in the polls.

We have zero evidence that the phenomenon exists. It wasn't present in the GOP primaries - in fact, if anything, the primary polls on average overstated Trump's support.

Also, Trump supporters don't remotely fit the stereotype of a "shy voter" cause. The archetypal example is the 1992 "shy Tories" - a case of Tory supporters being, in general, reluctant, unenthusiastic, and embarassed about their political leanings. Trump's supporters, by contrast, are extremely vocal, enthusiastic, and demonstrative of their political leanings. If anything, it's the Clinton campaign which more closely mirrors the 1992 Tories.

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Who had the shy voters in EU referendum?
Same reason all Brexit polls had remain to win.
Original post by trigglypuff
Same reason all Brexit polls had remain to win.


You can't use the result of a completely independent and far closer-run referendum in one country to predict the results of a presidential election in another.
Original post by ckfeister
Who had the shy voters in EU referendum?


Who has Trump and Clinton neck and neck? Is that nationally? where? Which state?

You believe he has a secret army and all the polls are wrong?

Dont start a thread and then fail to back it up with something intelligible or you just confirm what people think.
Original post by ckfeister
Who had the shy voters in EU referendum?


I see you've opted to ignore my points and try to move the goalposts. But I'll address this anyway.

There isn't a permanent class of "shy voters". Indeed, it's almost impossible to truly prove their existence in any instance - it's simply a potential explanation offered (which, in some cases, has been found convincing) to explain a significant disparity between polling and the final result. As has been explained to you, there was no such significant disparity in the Brexit polling (there was a small disparity from the average, but given the variation in polling it was well within the margin of error and possible outcomes).

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Original post by trigglypuff
Same reason all Brexit polls had remain to win.


No they didn't, and by that logic we should conclude that all polls always predict the wrong winner.

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Reply 69
Original post by 999tigger
Who has Trump and Clinton neck and neck? Is that nationally? where? Which state?

You believe he has a secret army and all the polls are wrong?

Dont start a thread and then fail to back it up with something intelligible or you just confirm what people think.


Original post by anarchism101
I see you've opted to ignore my points and try to move the goalposts. But I'll address this anyway.

There isn't a permanent class of "shy voters". Indeed, it's almost impossible to truly prove their existence in any instance - it's simply a potential explanation offered (which, in some cases, has been found convincing) to explain a significant disparity between polling and the final result. As has been explained to you, there was no such significant disparity in the Brexit polling (there was a small disparity from the average, but given the variation in polling it was well within the margin of error and possible outcomes).

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Original post by anarchism101
No they didn't, and by that logic we should conclude that all polls always predict the wrong winner.

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Wait till election day, not all polls say Clinton wins either
Original post by ckfeister
Wait till election day, not all polls say Clinton wins either


Are you just going to keep ignoring my request for evidence for evidence of a "secret army" that will boost Trump's numbers?
Original post by ckfeister
Wait till election day, not all polls say Clinton wins either


So basically you started a thread making claims that you believe Trump is going to win, but when asked why and the reasoning behind your claims you are unable to explain yourself.

He may indeed win, but its a very small chance based on the polls.

The weight of polls is behind Clinton at the moment. You seem to be unable to explain which of the swing states you believe he will win or why. It seems to be a secret.
Reply 72
Wait till election day, I'm going to respond than.
Reply 73
Original post by 999tigger
So basically you started a thread making claims that you believe Trump is going to win, but when asked why and the reasoning behind your claims you are unable to explain yourself.

He may indeed win, but its a very small chance based on the polls.

The weight of polls is behind Clinton at the moment. You seem to be unable to explain which of the swing states you believe he will win or why. It seems to be a secret.


I can't remember them, I just checked polls Clinton is only like +4% in the battleground states, or in Ohio its -1% to +2% which means Trump has won there due to high white-dominated population.
Original post by ckfeister
Wait till election day, I'm going to respond than.


Right, so you don't have evidence. Gotcha :yy:
Original post by ckfeister
What about the " shy " voters, go and look it up. Clinton has no shy voters or barely any


What if Clinton's shy voters are so shy that even you don't know about them?
Original post by ckfeister
I can't remember them, I just checked polls Clinton is only like +4% in the battleground states, or in Ohio its -1% to +2% which means Trump has won there due to high white-dominated population.


How do your teachers cope with your essays?
4% is a lot. She only has to win each state by the tiniest of margins.

Your thinking is really odd.
Original post by ckfeister
I can't remember them, I just checked polls Clinton is only like +4% in the battleground states, or in Ohio its -1% to +2% which means Trump has won there due to high white-dominated population.


Plenty of white people hate Trump and recognise what a car wreck of a president he'd be too, ya know.
Original post by 999tigger
How do your teachers cope with your essays?


Well if a gay/minority person has a right wing opinion then they can't possibly be wrong, so presumably his teachers give him As all the time.
Although I understand where you're coming from, there are too many assumptions being made. Having Pence and Santorum around doesn't mean he himself his anti-LGBT. He most likely appointed them for their other strengths, not because they're anti-LGBT. Trump even said himself in the town hall interview that he wants to restore the dignity of the LGBT community. Should we assume that Hillary Clinton is racist? She did say, in 2008, that Martin Luther king "wasn't that great". Trump is erratic in the way he approaches things, but I don't think he deserves these false accusations. (I am a neutral, not a Trump or Hillary supporter).

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