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predicting AS/A level results from GCSE grades?

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    We've just got our AS predictions, mine were AAAA for History, French, English Lit & German. Apparently they did this by comparing our top 8 GCSE results with the level attained by other students taking the same subjects with similar results - if that makes any sense.
    I've never heard of the ALIS test. My results were 4A* 6A 2B, so what would that equate to?
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    I've just got my AS predictions also,2 A's for R.S and History,B for Sociology and C for English.However these predictions are not from my ALIS score,just the progress I've made since September.My ALIS score I think was 5.6 which is CCCC.My GCSE results were 3 A's,2 B's and 5 C's.
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    (Original post by LittleMissShine)
    I've just got my AS predictions also,2 A's for R.S and History,B for Sociology and C for English.However these predictions are not from my ALIS score,just the progress I've made since September.My ALIS score I think was 5.6 which is CCCC.My GCSE results were 3 A's,2 B's and 5 C's.
    We never got an ALIS score or anything. I think my target grades were the average of my top 5 GCSE grades, but what I don't get is why my target grades are ABBB (A in English lit) because surely if it's just an average of my top GCSE grades, that means all my target grades would be the same? :confused:
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    (Original post by kellywood_5)
    We never got an ALIS score or anything. I think my target grades were the average of my top 5 GCSE grades, but what I don't get is why my target grades are ABBB (A in English lit) because surely if it's just an average of my top GCSE grades, that means all my target grades would be the same? :confused:
    This is because different subjects have different graphs and regression equations to link average GCSE scores with the grades in their subject.. so they all vary slightly. Most people's target grades will be within 1 grade of each other, I should think!
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    (Original post by Geogger)
    This is because different subjects have different graphs and regression equations to link average GCSE scores with the grades in their subject.. so they all vary slightly. Most people's target grades will be within 1 grade of each other, I should think!
    Lol oh right, still confusing. I think the teachers should just give us predicted grades a bit later on, when we've actually done enough assessments for them to have an idea of what grade we're likely to get. Target grades are uselss and usually inaccurate.
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    (Original post by kellywood_5)
    Lol oh right, still confusing. I think the teachers should just give us predicted grades a bit later on, when we've actually done enough assessments for them to have an idea of what grade we're likely to get. Target grades are uselss and usually inaccurate.
    Target grades are helpful if you use them to measure your regular marked work eg if you have a target grade of a B (70%) then that means you ought to get 7/10 or 14/20 or 18/25 as a MINIMUM , otherwise you are not performing at the level you will need to in an exam in order to get or improve on your Target Grade. My students find this a more useful way of looking at Target Grades.
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    well at GCSE i got 2A 4B 3C 2D so nothing fancy, i think that meant i would be predicted borderline C's at AS level. However after completing my AS exams ive achieved 3A's and a B. So you decide for yourself on how accurate they are. Although in all fairness im sure they are only meant as an average, and often will not hold true on individual basis's.
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    In the last place I worked, it was commonly accepted (since analysed by a stats teacher using 3 years' data) that the best predictor of an AL Physics result was the candidate's score at GCSE Maths, and that a GCSE English result of below C predicted a fail in almost anything involving writing.

    Some IBH History teachers preferred students not to have done GCSE History, and teachers of AL Business Studies did'nt really care whether students had done GCSE Business Studies or not.

    The whole business of predictions often takes little account of some important variables. The process needs to be handled with a bit of sesitivity and flexibility... difficult when you haven't the time, perhaps.

    Aitch
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    I havent got a clue what I was predicted for A level. I did the alis tests but never got told the result, and my tutors never told me what grades theyd predicted and to be honest I was interested in what they thought I would get. All you need to do is get the results you want to get where u want, but even if u dont then it doesnt matter and u will be happy anyway. I needed AAB for my first choice, got ABB and had to go to the second choice. At the time I didnt want to go to the second choice but now I would rather be there than my first choice! Strange!!
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    I got my ALIS A2 predictions the other day: all A/B! Ahhh! Last year they were B/C. They said that most peoples were lower than what they should get and that they are minimum target grades!! Shizz!
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    I got 6.8, but AAAAC at AS. So basically...whatever.

    THEY MEAN NOTHING
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    Wow, we got similar results: I got 6.9 and AAAAB at AS! So basically...whatever.
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    Ummm...

    I got 8.0: does that mean I can sleep 'til the A2s?

    Hang on, they mean nothing? Well, that's wrecked my plans.
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    (Original post by distortedgav)
    Anyone heard anything about using an ALIS score - (average GCSE points) as a predictor of A-level results. Is it me or does the whole system seem totally contrived and just generally bullsh*t? Apparently if you're averaging 7.0 or above at GCSE, then you're expected to get an A at A-level? I think thiis really is a joke? Anyone else got any thoughts on this?
    hi,

    I did that lat year in yr 12; its a load of bull**** to be frank. I was predicted CDCD based on ALIS, and BBBB based on my GCSE scores, and i got 4A's at AS, so that just proves how unreliable these damn "IQ" tests are.

    hope this inspires some people, lol
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    I can't believe the ALIS scores are misleading. I wonder what will happen if teachers/students complain to them about the scoring...
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    Stop getting worked up about nothing... the way I understand it is this.... the GCSE grades give an indication (a prediction) of your AS or A2 grade... but, so does everything else.....

    Your teacher then writes down a predicted grade for the exam board... which does not have to have any remote similarity to that which came from your GCSE grades....

    and then the exam boards look at your predicted grade and compare it with your actual.... only as a means to see if your paper needs rechecking.... cos you were say predicted an A and got an E.... so it might be worth just seeing whether you did as bad as that.....

    so... if you are prepared to pay for a remark... who cares about predicted grades!
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    I thought predicted grades were only sent to uni's. Never knew they went to exam boards too. :confused:
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    I don't think the predicted grades go to the exam board. IF they do, the exam board won't care about the predicted grades, as it's none of their business about us going to uni and stuff like that.
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    I got
    A*, B, B, B for gcse
    D's & U's

    predicted for a levels
    A - a level media studies
    A/B - a level psychology
    B - a level physics
    B-D - a level maths
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    This presiction ALIS system can not be trusted and relied upon as every individuals circumstances may vary.

    For example this boy at sixth form in 2001 had only 5B and 4C grades at GCSE. He was never really focused at the time did little work too.

    However he pulled himself together at A-Level and gained AAA in Maths, Physics and Chemistry and went onto to get offers from all 5 choices expect he was rejected by Cambridge after interview for Computer Science which was due to him not having had experience of Further Maths and CRAP GCSE grades. still he made it to Imperial in the end.

    Some other people may not achieve their true full potential in their GCSE's They could have all sorts of problems. They may not get on with their parents and relations with them may be at an all tiem low or something. What if the person parents want to destroy their child's dreams of getting good grades because he or she can do very well. What if they have very few friends due to their strict parents and then are bullied and undergo hoffic incidents via bullying at school.

    All these could distrupt them and not be foucused on achieving their true potential at GCSE.

    It is not that common, but it can happen. So you haev to look at all factors to decide the predictions.

    MOST PEOPLE ALWAYS TAKE THE SUBJECT(S) THEY GET A* A B in. So why should we have to consider something they did not perform as well in? :eek:
Updated: January 5, 2005
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