2. (b) Examine the effects of an El Nino cycle on the environment amd economy of selected countries
The 1997-98 was the worst El Nino event of the twentieth century. The El Nino impacted the entire world, both environmentally and economically, from a hotter summer in Britain to severe drought in Fiji, to economic slumps in many LEDCs.
In Paraguay, the country's infrastructure was severely damaged by floods and strong winds associated with storms during the 1997-98 El Niño. Damage by strong winds was registered, mainly for bridges, roads, and buildings, accounting for over US$48 million. El Niño impacts were particularly severe over the central region, due to heavy rains in Asunción and neighboring cities. From October 1997 to May 1998, rains in this area accounted for more than 190% of the historical average, exceeding rainfall amounts during the 1982-83 El Niño, which was 165% of the historical average. Electric power supply was very much affected by rains and winds as well, when a high number of power lines and towers were completely destroyed.
Impacts on ecosystems were significant, mainly in the Paraguay River basin and the Chaco, where extensive areas, never before flooded, remained under water for a long time, causing a high level of mortality among trees and other vegetation. Thousands of wild animals died in the flooded forest.
Fishing was severely impacted by floods related to the 1997-98 El Niño, producing a considerable decline in production, which strongly affected food supplies to the population and caused a disruption in exports. Agriculture was a major economic sector hit by El Niño. The agricultural campaign for 1997-98 suffered serious damage caused by heavy rains, strong winds, and hail. Crops were adversely affected from seeding to harvest, resulting in very low productivity. Loss estimates for eight major Paraguayan crops were over US$23 million.
Diarrhoea and dysentery increased considerably because of poor sanitary conditions in affected areas and in temporary shelters. The government had to construct in a very short time more than 84 refugee camps, where sanitary conditions were far from adequate. Floods and severe weather related to El Niño brought a number of social problems such as losses in habitat, losses in jobs, insecurity, vulnerability to disease, etc. This is very common whenever a population has to be concentrated in shelters or relocated in other "safe" areas.
The 1997-98 El Niño taught Paraguay a big lesson. In September 1997, a prediction emphasized the development of a strong event. However, different sectors of the society spent too much time discussing and assessing the veracity of the El Niño information and information about its impact on Paraguay. Considerably more human and economic resources are needed, if Paraguay is to reduce El Niño's impacts.
The 1997-98 El Nino was the most damaging ever in Fiji, both environmentally and economically. Sugarcane areas, concentrated in the western and northern parts of the main islands of Fiji, roughly correspond to the most drought-prone areas of the nation. The entire industry supports about 25% of Fiji's population, around 200,000 people. The 1997-98 drought caused a 5% drop in the planted area of sugar cane, but more importantly, of the crop that was left, 25% was wiped out. National production loss was around 50% (c. F$104 million). 77% of the farmers still received less income, or even none (33%), during the drought. Average farm-dependent family incomes dropped from F$3500 to F$1500 and below. Food gardens, normally supplementary to the lives of these families, were also destroyed in the drought.
Responses in sugarcane areas included supplementary rations, supplied through the government, Red Cross and community organizations. Additional responses included a major government-funded crop rehabilitation program, through which most resources went into replanting sugarcane stocks. Little benefit from this program reached small-holders and farm-labourers. Long-term impacts on the sugar industry were avoided because the government provided a large capital boost with the crop rehabilitation program. This enabled a rapid return to production and improved plant stock and fertilization that was already well overdue in many areas.
Rural subsistence, although estimated at only 3.8% of GDP, plays a role in the support of 80% of Fiji's population. To increase the economic robustness of communities, in 1995 the government instigated a program to commercially develop selected (but existing) high-value crops. Despite these programs, impacts on subsistence food supply were severe.
Export vegetables and root crops were reduced to 50%, and in the peak production months of June and July no plantings were possible and planting materials were often wiped out. The secondary hazard of wildfires, particularly in the north of Fiji, damaged up to 40% of cultivated crops and up to 10% of the native forest – removing an additional source of supplementary food.
Livestock fatalities in the nation's 28,000 cattle and 190,000 small ruminants had begun by the end of the drought. Pastures were destroyed and supplementary feed for livestock was unavailable. During the drought, the instances and extent of forest fires were greater than normal and forest crops in several areas with thin topsoil were severely damaged.
Responses in this sector included a rehabilitation program begun in May 1998, targeting food security. This involved establishing "stock" farms of planting material in strategic areas both within and outside of drought-prone locations. Medium- to long-term impacts have been slight, and long-term impacts were mostly confined to the tree-crop sector (pine, cocoa and coconuts). Despite these impacts, some aspects of the drought proved to be of positive benefit to the production in the forest industry, enabling improved access to logging areas. Other medium-term impacts included improved grazing pastures in many areas that were in need of re-establishment.
The economy was driven into recession, reducing GDP in 1997 by 3%, and in 1998 by a further 5%. Prices remained stable throughout the drought. The lack of disposable income and the availability of government food rations in affected sectors subdued demand. There were short-term impacts on wages and employment, but this quickly returned to normal following a bumper crop in 1999.
Response to the El Nino was lower then expected because of a decreased state of awareness because of a general state of unpreparedness and a lack of understanding of meteorological terminology. If properly warned, most people will take action to minimize the impacts of a potential disaster as best they can with available resources, unfortunarely this was not able to take place.
In conclusion, El Nino events have very severe impacts on countries, arguably the whole world, both environmentally and economically.
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P.S. I thought it was better for my revision to practice essay-writing but I'll try and produce it in note form for people later if they want.