Trader on the BBC says Eurozone Market will crash

Original post by Quady

Surely that would describe the year 2000 not 2011...

...explain?

Reply 42

DYKWIA

13

Original post by CourtJester

You're responsible for your own downfall.

Original post by Lewis :D

Typical American attitude, I hope America falls 10x harder.

It is europe's inability to sort out its financial issues that have caused the majority of the current economic problems. If it wasn't for europe's policies we would have seen strong economic growth within a few years at most.

It's no coincidence that people are dumping the euro and moving to safer currencies (the dollar for example)...

Reply 43

Original post by NJA

...explain?

From the early 80s to 2001 gold was thrown out as it would not delivering, whereas since then its brought happiness a-plenty.

Reply 44

Craig_D

17

Original post by DYKWIA

It is europe's inability to sort out its financial issues that have caused the majority of the current economic problems. If it wasn't for europe's policies we would have seen strong economic growth within a few years at most.

It's no coincidence that people are dumping the euro and moving to safer currencies (the dollar for example)...

And, conveniently for the people you're replying to, the pound is another? :mmm:

Reply 45

Original post by DYKWIA

It is europe's inability to sort out its financial issues that have caused the majority of the current economic problems. If it wasn't for europe's policies we would have seen strong economic growth within a few years at most.

It's no coincidence that people are dumping the euro and moving to safer currencies (the dollar for example)...

I don't think you need reminding about how much sronger the euro is now compared to '08.

Its hardly like Europe is the only one with poor economic policy choices. Twist and Switch for example had quite surprising results on 30 year treasuries for example.

Reply 46

NJA

Original post by Quady

From the early 80s to 2001 gold was thrown out as it would not delivering, whereas since then its brought happiness a-plenty.

We've already seen a run on a few individual banks,. if the whole system crashes (as suggested in the clip) people will do whatever they think they need to to get food, not even gold will be worth much since you can't use it or eat it if the system is down.

Reply 47

TheDubs

Heard reports that Ireland are reprinting the pound/punt.

Reply 48

Original post by NJA

We've already seen a run on a few individual banks,. if the whole system crashes (as suggested in the clip) people will do whatever they think they need to to get food, not even gold will be worth much since you can't use it or eat it if the system is down.

So alternate value stores aren't used when currencies become defunct?

Why hasn't that been the case when other monetary systems have collapsed?

Why would food be the only thing left if the current monetary system collapsed?

Again, why has that not been the case when its happened before? :s-smilie:

Reply 49

NJA

Original post by Quady

So alternate value stores aren't used when currencies become defunct?
Why hasn't that been the case when other monetary systems have collapsed?
Why would food be the only thing left if the current monetary system collapsed?

The video is pointing to the futurecollapse of the World banking system, in which case people qwill stop wanting anything but essentuials so many people will be out of work. What are you referring to?

Reply 50

morris743

lol, funny how many people who were so asleep to what's happening seem to finally be getting it. Guess it'll take a while for TSR to cop on, however...

And I truly thought one of the main points of being a student was to be progressive. Pah.

Reply 51

Original post by NJA

The video is pointing to the futurecollapse of the World banking system, in which case people qwill stop wanting anything but essentuials so many people will be out of work. What are you referring to?

No, they will still want clothes, housing and heating, they will still want booze, drugs, cigarettes and women. Large number of people being out of work won't stop that or stop trading.

I was referring to most revolutions and cases where the currency becomes worthless, Zimbabwe, 30s Germany,

The banking system won't collapse due to lack of money, QE can solve that quite easily, its loss of faith in currency as a value store that would ruin it.

Reply 52

Original post by NJA

The video is pointing to the futurecollapse of the World banking system, in which case people qwill stop wanting anything but essentuials so many people will be out of work. What are you referring to?

btw - you do realise hes a hoaxer right?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html

Reply 53

34253

Original post by Quady

btw - you do realise hes a hoaxer right?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html

To be honest his credentials are rather unimportant. Most studies on economic predictions show that an economist is as good as any lay person. Haven't you noticed that all of the news channel's 'experts' from pre-recession times, or even some parts of the recession, are now not on TV at all. The people who really know what is going on, and quite possibly what will happen, would never dream of going on TV. And for the most part many of them would be fired if they did so. It's unwanted publicity. Soros might pop up occasionally to make his death angel cry, but more often than not that is just him trying to provide the spark that will make all his positions go through the roof.

There is one company who has managed to input enough data into a super computer to make consistent profits (Renaissance Technologies). And there are a small handful of prudent and wise investors. However, the rest might as well be reading tea leaves.

Reply 54

yoyo462001

16

Original post by Elipsis

To be honest his credentials are rather unimportant. Most studies on economic predictions show that an economist is as good as any lay person. Haven't you noticed that all of the news channel's 'experts' from pre-recession times, or even some parts of the recession, are now not on TV at all. The people who really know what is going on, and quite possibly what will happen, would never dream of going on TV. And for the most part many of them would be fired if they did so. It's unwanted publicity. Soros might pop up occasionally to make his death angel cry, but more often than not that is just him trying to provide the spark that will make all his positions go through the roof.

There is one company who has managed to input enough data into a super computer to make consistent profits (Renaissance Technologies). And there are a small handful of prudent and wise investors. However, the rest might as well be reading tea leaves.

So someone without any sort of legitimacy, FSA licence or experience comes out and speaks on the BBC how the markets would crash and it doesn't matter that he has no credentials :lolwut:

Your second sentence is even worse, and economists predictions as good as any other persons :facepalm:

. I wasn't aware the common person could pull growth and inflation figures out of no where and be in line with an economists prediction.

(edited 12 years ago)

Reply 55

34253

Original post by yoyo462001

So someone without any sort of legitimacy, FSA licence or experience comes out and speaks on the BBC how the markets would crash and it doesn't matter that he has no credentials :lolwut:

Your second sentence is even worse, and economists predictions as good as any other persons :facepalm:

. I wasn't aware the common person could pull growth and inflation figures out of no where and be in line with an economists prediction.

It is actually not that important as long as he knows roughly what he is saying. You will find a broad spectrum of economists ranging from 'omggzz the worlds gonna implode', to 'everything will be alright in a year or so'. So he clearly falls somewhere on the line of normal predictions given by economists.

The idea that economists predictions, especially long term, are worthless is rather well presented in The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Go give that a read, or at least humor me and have a scroll through the wiki article. It has gained a lot of popularity among investors of late.

Reply 56

yoyo462001

16

Original post by Elipsis

It is actually not that important as long as he knows roughly what he is saying. You will find a broad spectrum of economists ranging from 'omggzz the worlds gonna implode', to 'everything will be alright in a year or so'. So he clearly falls somewhere on the line of normal predictions given by economists.

The idea that economists predictions, especially long term, are worthless is rather well presented in The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Go give that a read, or at least humor me and have a scroll through the wiki article. It has gained a lot of popularity among investors of late.

Well that's a stupid thing to say. If I was to get a teenage shop assistant and ask how the economy was going to turn out, he'd certainly give me an answer within your so called range since that range is pretty much everything. You actually have no idea what an economist does do you, under you ridiculous logic EVERYONE should be given the same legitimacy as an economist. What you don't understand is an economist has research to back it up, but it's that research, there model will factor a lot things in and ultimately you cannot accurately predict the future.

To my main point, his credentials are very important, it gives weight to what he says. This guy lives in a 200K house not in his name, -10K in the bank and calls himself a trader, so why exactly should we listen to him. If it was a shop keeper with an account with an interactive broker, would you take him seriously on BBC.

Reply 57

crazycake93

13

Original post by jhubbert

Just glad we aren't part of the Euro.

The expression "Good riddance you loonies" :tongue:

comes to mind

We are part of europe, if the Euro collapses, we're going to have to pick up alot of debt.

Also, If the Euro collapses, people will be looking for safety investments, this would be in the form of Dollars, Gold and Sterling.

If pounds are bought in large quantities, by the laws of demand and supply, the price of the pound will rise in relation to other currencies, and will have a major impact on our export market, and probably lead to greater defecits on our BOP. And in the situation were in, where were forcasted something mad like 0.2% growth this year. It's not going to help the situation.

Reply 58

Jacktri