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**The "North Korea Watch 2013" Update Thread**

I don't see why everyone is passing off North Korea as a joke when it comes to their threats.

1) They have nuclear weapons around 5-7 kilotons, this is small for a nuclear weapon but large enough to use in an EMP
2) North Korea can hit the US, they launched a satellite into space. If you can get a satellite into Space you can hit the US.

Now for people not aware of what an EMP does, let me explain. EMP or Electro Magnetic Pulse is generated when a Nuclear Bomb is denoted high up in the atmosphere. An EMP can wipe out ALL ELECTRONICS.

So an EMP detonated over the US would wipe out the National Grid, your Mobile Phones, your TV, your Cars (supposedly the car battery would be effected).

This ultimately would lead to mass looting and a breakdown of society in general.

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North Korea has got the range but unfortunately they lack the brains to actually put together any nuclear missile that has a remote chance of hitting any of the important western countries. They will be able to one day and it is probably only a matter of years rather than decades however there are a number of technological wonders the US particularly has been looking into which can protect them from a nuclear attack, in regards to potential threats to our way of life North Korea isn't very high.

An EMP blast would be an awful annoyance and it could take months to fix the damage however this whole notion that our entire society depends on the availability of power like it was oxygen and without it we would descend into some kind of mad max type scenario is just Hollywood inspired fantasy, sure big changes would happen however some may even argue it might do society some good, get in touch with our roots so to speak. Also a single EMP would not knock out all electronics and how much damage it would do depends on a number of factors however it basically functions as a pulse (stronger in the middle weaker as it spreads out). Nearly all military and key government facilities are equipped to deal and have various GIC protection in place (tbh it isn't difficult, if you want to create your own EMP proof devices you just need to build a simple Faraday cage where the device is insulated against the outside of the cage).

We can rebuild after we turn the country or countries responsible into glass within a matter of minutes and watch the unfortunate citizens who didn't die instantly suffer through the aftermath and pain of having to endure horrible fatal burns not only on themselves but on their loved ones, those who are even more unlucky will suffer the effects of radiation poisoning (who knows maybe they will develop superpowers, but its much more likely they will die in sheer agony over a period that can last up to a week with blood pouring from every hole in their body and horrible ulcers consuming their skin). Attacking the west with a nuke, emp pulse or any weapon that would do any real damage is suicide, it will result in the death of millions of innocent people when we retaliate and generally everyone will have a bad time. Maybe North Korea, Iran or wherever is stupid enough to attack us however i would hedge my bets that neither wants their country and people wiped out.
Reply 2
Original post by advice_guru
I don't see why everyone is passing off North Korea as a joke when it comes to their threats.

1) They have nuclear weapons around 5-7 kilotons, this is small for a nuclear weapon but large enough to use in an EMP
2) North Korea can hit the US, they launched a satellite into space. If you can get a satellite into Space you can hit the US.

Now for people not aware of what an EMP does, let me explain. EMP or Electro Magnetic Pulse is generated when a Nuclear Bomb is denoted high up in the atmosphere. An EMP can wipe out ALL ELECTRONICS.

So an EMP detonated over the US would wipe out the National Grid, your Mobile Phones, your TV, your Cars (supposedly the car battery would be effected).

This ultimately would lead to mass looting and a breakdown of society in general.


1) The energy a 5-7 kiloton bomb would generate is not nearly enough to wipe out all electronics. Please consider the fact that the most powerful bomb ever detonated (at 2.5 mi above the ground) was a 50 megaton bomb, also known as the Tsar Bomba, and it only caused minor disruption to TV/radio broadcasts across the world, nothing actually "fried". Yeah, it was detonated above a very remote area but given NK's inability to construct a semi-decent targeting system I really don't think that they would be able to nuke anyone and, given the comparatively insignificant power of their bomb, "frying" anything seems even more unlikely. Yeah, the EMP thing does actually exist but it takes a much more advanced system to produce one than NK currently has and its scale would still be limited.

2) No. Launching a satellite into space and constructing a fully operational ICBM are two very distinct things, plus they currently do not have the technology to mount a nuclear warhead on a potential ICBM.
Lulwut, OP you're playing too much Homefront.

Firstly, a single EMP would not knock out all US electronics. Besides the US has allies such as the NATO, ANZUS, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, if it ever happens in the first place. Last time I recalled, North Korea has China as its only ally who is losing its patience. Would China intervene and result in a China/NK vs US/SK war? I don't think they'll be willing enough to do that.

Peace rules.
Very big difference between pushing a tin can into space and launching, targeting and delivering a nuclear weapon across the Pacific.

That said, it is true that Kim is a ****wit self-centred bastard with zero experience, a spoiled brat ego the size of Mars and a large army at his disposal. At minimum, he can cause huge suffering and damage, not least to his own people.

It is also troubling that China and Japan might get suckered into any conflict, even if they don't want to.

So there IS cause for concern, not nightmares, but any war there would be terrible, nuclear or not. I wasn't that thrilled to see the US posturing with stealth bombers, I doubt that helped, as psychologically I suspect that the regime is very paranoid as well as absurdly full of itself - there's a lot of fear behind all that posturing. Not convinced that making them even more afraid is a smart thing to do right now.
Reply 5
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Very big difference between pushing a tin can into space and launching, targeting and delivering a nuclear weapon across the Pacific.

That said, it is true that Kim is a ****wit self-centred bastard with zero experience, a spoiled brat ego the size of Mars and a large army at his disposal. At minimum, he can cause huge suffering and damage, not least to his own people.

It is also troubling that China and Japan might get suckered into any conflict, even if they don't want to.

So there IS cause for concern, not nightmares, but any war there would be terrible, nuclear or not. I wasn't that thrilled to see the US posturing with stealth bombers, I doubt that helped, as psychologically I suspect that the regime is very paranoid as well as absurdly full of itself - there's a lot of fear behind all that posturing. Not convinced that making them even more afraid is a smart thing to do right now.


Largely agreed except for 1 thing:
- the show of Force isn't just for the North's benefit. It's also for the South, to let them know they have an ally. Say as much as you like about the issues in Korea, there's a lot of people in the South who are going to get frightened and their ability to say "someone will help us" will make a difference.
Original post by Drewski
Largely agreed except for 1 thing:
- the show of Force isn't just for the North's benefit. It's also for the South, to let them know they have an ally. Say as much as you like about the issues in Korea, there's a lot of people in the South who are going to get frightened and their ability to say "someone will help us" will make a difference.


Yeah, I realise that was the motive, but it wasn't intelligent and there are more sensible ways the US could be giving that message to the SK population - also one mustn't forget that there is a large 'peace at any price' faction in SK and being a cynic, one might suggest that the US were primarily concerned to terrify the peacenik faction in SK rather than in NK.

Either way, I think as a gesture it was dumb. The US knows perfectly well that NK is no threat to them but it actively feeds the absurd pretensions of the NK government to engage in this kind of ramping up - it treats their bellicose bull**** as serious and worthy of serious military response.

Walk softly and carry a big stick.
If North Korea launched so much as grenade at America, it would take about 2 seconds for the Americans to decide to blow the country to pieces. The North Koreans know this- they're all talk.
Reply 8
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Yeah, I realise that was the motive, but it wasn't intelligent and there are more sensible ways the US could be giving that message to the SK population - also one mustn't forget that there is a large 'peace at any price' faction in SK and being a cynic, one might suggest that the US were primarily concerned to terrify the peacenik faction in SK rather than in NK.

Either way, I think as a gesture it was dumb. The US knows perfectly well that NK is no threat to them but it actively feeds the absurd pretensions of the NK government to engage in this kind of ramping up - it treats their bellicose bull**** as serious and worthy of serious military response.

Walk softly and carry a big stick.


And how long should South Korean citizens have to live in constant anxiety/North Korean citizens be denied basic rights and freedoms? We have wasted the best part of half a century trying to reason with the Kim regime and got nowhere - a significant part of me thinks that the US is going to have to confront NK militarily at some point and if so then better to do so now before NK does develop ICBMs capable of posing a genuine threat to the rest of the world.

At the end of the day NK has proven if limited nuclear capability, is actively seeking to develop that further, is happily proliferating it's weapons tech to enemies of the West and has threatened to nuke America on several occasions (something which to the best of my knowledge even the USSR didn't do publicly) , is denying it's population basic rights and is believed to be operating concentration camps within it's territory for political prisoners. We invaded Iraq for much, much less.

War is never desirable but frankly Kim and his pathetic party have made enough threats, caused enough suffering and been given enough chances.
Original post by Darth Stewie
North Korea has got the range but unfortunately they lack the brains to actually put together any nuclear missile that has a remote chance of hitting any of the important western countries.


unfortunately...
Original post by Josh93
And how long should South Korean citizens have to live in constant anxiety/North Korean citizens be denied basic rights and freedoms? We have wasted the best part of half a century trying to reason with the Kim regime and got nowhere - a significant part of me thinks that the US is going to have to confront NK militarily at some point and if so then better to do so now before NK does develop ICBMs capable of posing a genuine threat to the rest of the world.

At the end of the day NK has proven if limited nuclear capability, is actively seeking to develop that further, is happily proliferating it's weapons tech to enemies of the West and has threatened to nuke America on several occasions (something which to the best of my knowledge even the USSR didn't do publicly) , is denying it's population basic rights and is believed to be operating concentration camps within it's territory for political prisoners. We invaded Iraq for much, much less.

War is never desirable but frankly Kim and his pathetic party have made enough threats, caused enough suffering and been given enough chances.


I agree that the suffering of people in NK is appalling and has been for a long time.

The question is which is the way forwards that offers the least suffering to everyone. That's a difficult one to answer. I would love to terminate this ghastly regime but it probably can't be done without immense cost in human life and unforeseeable consequences. In particular, I don't think the West knows accurately enough how China will react. They may not side with NK to start with, but if things go to an all-out war? That might change. China wants the buffer of NK in between itself and SK / Japan.

There are a lot of imponderables and a simplistic dash for war almost certainly is rash and foolhardy. I know it's dragged on for decades but the truth is, it probably needs to drag on some more. Eventually and before too many years have passed, China will probably reach the point of getting so sick of the regime that they will want to end it. However, a war with the US/SK is a totally different thing.
The OP must be Kim Jong Un's special advisor.
(edited 11 years ago)
Reply 12
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Yeah, I realise that was the motive, but it wasn't intelligent and there are more sensible ways the US could be giving that message to the SK population - also one mustn't forget that there is a large 'peace at any price' faction in SK and being a cynic, one might suggest that the US were primarily concerned to terrify the peacenik faction in SK rather than in NK.

Either way, I think as a gesture it was dumb. The US knows perfectly well that NK is no threat to them but it actively feeds the absurd pretensions of the NK government to engage in this kind of ramping up - it treats their bellicose bull**** as serious and worthy of serious military response.

Walk softly and carry a big stick.


They had to stand up to NK rhetoric + they had to deter S Korea from pursuing the development of their own nukes by showing them that they still are under the protective umbrella of the US.

Plus speaking softly and carrying sticks is too last century, lots of individuals/regimes would recognise that as a sign of weakness (especially those in the Middle East). The current situation for murika is radically different from what it was 100 years ago.

And B-2s are also scary.
(edited 11 years ago)
Reply 13
Original post by Fullofsurprises
I agree that the suffering of people in NK is appalling and has been for a long time.

The question is which is the way forwards that offers the least suffering to everyone. That's a difficult one to answer. I would love to terminate this ghastly regime but it probably can't be done without immense cost in human life and unforeseeable consequences. In particular, I don't think the West knows accurately enough how China will react. They may not side with NK to start with, but if things go to an all-out war? That might change. China wants the buffer of NK in between itself and SK / Japan.

There are a lot of imponderables and a simplistic dash for war almost certainly is rash and foolhardy. I know it's dragged on for decades but the truth is, it probably needs to drag on some more. Eventually and before too many years have passed, China will probably reach the point of getting so sick of the regime that they will want to end it. However, a war with the US/SK is a totally different thing.


You are of course right that the issue in question is whether military intervention in NK would cause more suffering than it would prevent - I am inclined to think that it could be carried out in such a way as to quickly topple the NK regime with relatively minimal loss of life for the following reasons:

* America has absolute aerial supremacy in the region and could destroy the North's air force hard assets very rapidly thus seriously limiting the ability of NK to offer significant resistance (this would obviously cause loss of life but most aircraft would likely be destroyed on the ground).

* North Korean military is dependent upon conscripts and held together on the misguided belief that they are far stronger than reality suggests. Rapid use of overwhelming force by the US/SK ('shock and awe') would likely shatter this illusion and subsequently break their resolve. I imagine that the main part of the NK army would surrender or desert within 48 hours of a serious offensive operation.

* It is hard to be sure but I think reasonable to assume that there are many ordinary citizens within Pyongyang that would like nothing more than to depose the regime and achieve reunification with the South - if the West intervened then I suspect many NK citizens would rise up and roll out the red carpet to greet them.

Admittedly China is an unknown quantity but I think that the Chinese are beginning to realise that having NK as a buffer is not worth having a mentally unstable regime armed with nuclear weapons on it's peripherary. Furthermore, China is a mature nation and must realise that a hot war with the US would mean economic and likely military destruction, North Korea is not worth that.

A simplistic dash for war is almost invariably foolhardy but maintaining the status quo until NK becomes a serious threat (if it isn't already) may well be even more foolish. It is also important to consider that the current government in SK is much more aggressive than it's predecessor and has already made it clear that it will not tolerate another attack such as those seen in the last year or so (Japan has made similar comments). From the US perspective, if war is unavoidable then surely it is better to control how that conflict starts yourself rather than be dragged into a conflict without warning?
(edited 11 years ago)
I'm constantly amazed/surprised/scared by the popular notion that the reflex of the US, in the face of such an attack, would be to massacre an entire country. I'm pretty sure that's not how the world works, and certainly not how it should work.
Original post by Barden
unfortunately...


Yes, they are unfortunate they lack the technological prowess to reach their desired goals.
Reply 16
Sorry OP but you are uninformed on NK's capabilites, nuclear yeild and how an EMP works.
(edited 11 years ago)
Reply 17
Original post by Josh93
topple the NK regime with relatively minimal loss of life for the following reasons:

* America has absolute aerial supremacy in the region and could destroy the North's air force hard assets very rapidly thus seriously limiting the ability of NK to offer significant resistance

* North Korean military is dependent upon conscripts and held together on the misguided belief that they are far stronger than reality suggests. Rapid use of overwhelming force by the US/SK ('shock and awe') would likely shatter this illusion and subsequently break their resolve. I imagine that the main part of the NK army would surrender or desert within 48 hours of a serious offensive operation.

* It is hard to be sure but I think reasonable to assume that there are many ordinary citizens within Pyongyang

Admittedly China is an unknown quantity but I think that the Chinese are beginning to realise that having NK as a buffer is not worth having a mentally unstable regime armed with nuclear weapons on it's peripherary. Furthermore, China is a mature nation and must realise that a hot war with the US would mean economic and likely military destruction, North Korea is not worth that.



This is a very naive analysis on your part.

1) Minimum loss of life for whom? The U.S. ?

USA would have absolute air supremacy after a few days. The problem is, what North Korea can do after 3-4 days? The answer is, a LOT of damage.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0104/North-Korea-military-has-an-edge-over-South-but-wouldn-t-win-a-war-study-finds

2) North Korea
har between 180,000 and 200,000 Special Forces. They are Kim's private elite guard. In addition to another 1 million soldiers, North Korea has between 6 to 7 million strong paramilitary force.

So even though the U.S. and South Korea can repel any North Korean attempt taking Seoul, that doesn't mean that North Korea can't do a lot of damage to civilian infrastructure. Remember, North Korean forces are 50 kilometers (31 miles) north of Seoul.

South Korean forces are about 140 kilometers from Pyongyang.

3) Most citizens in Pyongyang are the most regime-loyal ones. In order to get permission to live in Pyongyang, you have to be one of the most loyal ones. As North Korean citizen, you can't just move to Pyongyang. You would need permission to do so. In order to get permission, you need to prove yourself over a period of several years.

Furthermore, there is nothing that indicates that any North Korean citizen would "roll out the red carpet" for any U.S. or South Korean forces. This never hapened in Somalia, it never happened in Afghanistan, it never happened in Iraq and it's not happening in Libya either. On the contrary, extremist groups are gaining ground. That's no wonder since U.S. is bombing their country to hell.

Based on the U.S./Western interventions since early 1990s, there is not one single country that is "working" properly as a country.

The Balkans, Haiti, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Libya, and now Mali - none of them are working properly. And there is no indication that Syria or North Korea will work "properly" after the West kills Assad or Kim.

4) China does not want U.S./South Korea troops near it's borders. That itself can definitely provoke an attack.

China might not defend North Korea, but China might easely be forced to create a buffer zone a few miles across the North Korean border, in order to still keep some kind of buffer against U.S. and a "new Korea". There is nothing U.S. can do to stop China creating such a smaller buffer zone, close to Chinese border.

I wish people stop using the word "trade". Countries are not more peaceful, just because they are trade partners. It's a matter of national security and "trade" will always LOSE against that, and trade will lose against geo-strategic interests.
LOL you seriously think the US would allow a primitive NK missile to make it over US airspace without any sort of intervention? NK are all talk.



Oh- and they don't actually have any nuclear weapons that we know about.
Reply 19
Original post by advice_guru
I don't see why everyone is passing off North Korea as a joke when it comes to their threats.

1) They have nuclear weapons around 5-7 kilotons, this is small for a nuclear weapon but large enough to use in an EMP
2) North Korea can hit the US, they launched a satellite into space. If you can get a satellite into Space you can hit the US.

Now for people not aware of what an EMP does, let me explain. EMP or Electro Magnetic Pulse is generated when a Nuclear Bomb is denoted high up in the atmosphere. An EMP can wipe out ALL ELECTRONICS.

So an EMP detonated over the US would wipe out the National Grid, your Mobile Phones, your TV, your Cars (supposedly the car battery would be effected).

This ultimately would lead to mass looting and a breakdown of society in general.


For clarification, are you claiming that NK have the capability of building an EMP with a blast radius sufficient to cover and effect the entire US?

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