**The "North Korea Watch 2013" Update Thread**

LOL you seriously think the US would allow a primitive NK missile to make it over US airspace without any sort of intervention? NK are all talk.

Oh- and they don't actually have any nuclear weapons that we know about.

Right now, the biggest risk to Kim is that the damn thing will turn around and drop on his own HQ.

The biggest risk to Kim is diabetes- he's been getting a bit tubby recently.

Am I right in thinking North Korea could hit a US base in South Korea if they improve their targeting a bit?

North Korea has got the range but unfortunately they lack the brains to actually put together any nuclear missile that has a remote chance of hitting any of the important western countries. They will be able to one day and it is probably only a matter of years rather than decades however there are a number of technological wonders the US particularly has been looking into which can protect them from a nuclear attack, in regards to potential threats to our way of life North Korea isn't very high.

An EMP blast would be an awful annoyance and it could take months to fix the damage however this whole notion that our entire society depends on the availability of power like it was oxygen and without it we would descend into some kind of mad max type scenario is just Hollywood inspired fantasy, sure big changes would happen however some may even argue it might do society some good, get in touch with our roots so to speak. Also a single EMP would not knock out all electronics and how much damage it would do depends on a number of factors however it basically functions as a pulse (stronger in the middle weaker as it spreads out). Nearly all military and key government facilities are equipped to deal and have various GIC protection in place (tbh it isn't difficult, if you want to create your own EMP proof devices you just need to build a simple Faraday cage where the device is insulated against the outside of the cage).

We can rebuild after we turn the country or countries responsible into glass within a matter of minutes and watch the unfortunate citizens who didn't die instantly suffer through the aftermath and pain of having to endure horrible fatal burns not only on themselves but on their loved ones, those who are even more unlucky will suffer the effects of radiation poisoning (who knows maybe they will develop superpowers, but its much more likely they will die in sheer agony over a period that can last up to a week with blood pouring from every hole in their body and horrible ulcers consuming their skin). Attacking the west with a nuke, emp pulse or any weapon that would do any real damage is suicide, it will result in the death of millions of innocent people when we retaliate and generally everyone will have a bad time. Maybe North Korea, Iran or wherever is stupid enough to attack us however i would hedge my bets that neither wants their country and people wiped out.

Actually it really isn't.
The official figure for the USA is that 90% of the population would be dead after 6 months...and this makes perfect sense as an EMP would knock out every car or lorry built after the 1970. Now considering a normal supermarket gets about 2 full artic. deliveries a day, imagine what would happen after a week of no deliveries combined with no water, heating etc.
Now NK can't do this as the altitude to do such a thing is very specific and I think the warhead has to be extremely large, but it is a major problem.

An incredibly common misconception (and i don't know where you got the 90% dead figure from but they are full of crap), take a look at this study done by the EMP commission which goes through the various effects an EMP could have on the US infrastructure, scroll down to 112 for the bit about trucks and cars however to sum up of the tests they did most cars ran fine when subjected to an EMP pulse (a few non essential electronics failed and the cars may need to be restarted when the EMP pulse hits).

The vital systems in cars and trucks are already very well protected against electromagnetic interference as they act as a Faraday cage (which is why in a thunderstorm it is recommended you stay in your car). As a rough figure (based on that study) around 10% of vehicles that are subjected to an EMP pulse will stop working completely and those can be repaired pretty quickly especially if we need them for food transportation however it will probably be cheaper to just scrap them. This of course depends on their proximity to the center of the pulse (closer more cars will stop working the further out less will stop working).

If all vehicles magically stopped working and we were unable to repair them or build anymore then yes a lot of people would probably die (although 90% still seems very high) however that would never be the case and this type of scenario generally comes from doomsday prophets or Hollywood, neither understand what an EMP pulse actually is or the effects it would have on our infrastructure. It would be bad yes and weaker members of society probably would die but it certainly would not be the end of western civilization nor is it very likely governments will begin to topple.

"The Swiss executed both free-field (up to 25 kV/m) and current-injection (up to 2 kA) tests on a 4.6 MW, 80-ton
electro-mechanical locomotive in both power-on and power-off configurations. During the free-field illumination,
the test report states that “important analog/digital control electronics, deep inside the PC-boards, was repeatedly
burnt out.” Ye there studies showed nothing?
"After the initial traffic congestion has subsided, the reconstitution of the automobile
and trucking infrastructures will depend primarily on two factors—the availability of fuel
and commercial power."

Also note that you can get through any Faraday cage with enough power, plus why is such an investigation openly available? Research like that is never published.

This is a very naive analysis on your part.

1) Minimum loss of life for whom? The U.S. ?

USA would have absolute air supremacy after a few days. The problem is, what North Korea can do after 3-4 days? The answer is, a LOT of damage.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0104/North-Korea-military-has-an-edge-over-South-but-wouldn-t-win-a-war-study-finds

2) North Korea har between 180,000 and 200,000 Special Forces. They are Kim's private elite guard. In addition to another 1 million soldiers, North Korea has between 6 to 7 million strong paramilitary force.

So even though the U.S. and South Korea can repel any North Korean attempt taking Seoul, that doesn't mean that North Korea can't do a lot of damage to civilian infrastructure. Remember, North Korean forces are 50 kilometers (31 miles) north of Seoul.

South Korean forces are about 140 kilometers from Pyongyang.

3) Most citizens in Pyongyang are the most regime-loyal ones. In order to get permission to live in Pyongyang, you have to be one of the most loyal ones. As North Korean citizen, you can't just move to Pyongyang. You would need permission to do so. In order to get permission, you need to prove yourself over a period of several years.

Furthermore, there is nothing that indicates that any North Korean citizen would "roll out the red carpet" for any U.S. or South Korean forces. This never hapened in Somalia, it never happened in Afghanistan, it never happened in Iraq and it's not happening in Libya either. On the contrary, extremist groups are gaining ground. That's no wonder since U.S. is bombing their country to hell.

Based on the U.S./Western interventions since early 1990s, there is not one single country that is "working" properly as a country.

The Balkans, Haiti, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Libya, and now Mali - none of them are working properly. And there is no indication that Syria or North Korea will work "properly" after the West kills Assad or Kim.

4) China does not want U.S./South Korea troops near it's borders. That itself can definitely provoke an attack.

China might not defend North Korea, but China might easely be forced to create a buffer zone a few miles across the North Korean border, in order to still keep some kind of buffer against U.S. and a "new Korea". There is nothing U.S. can do to stop China creating such a smaller buffer zone, close to Chinese border.

I wish people stop using the word "trade". Countries are not more peaceful, just because they are trade partners. It's a matter of national security and "trade" will always LOSE against that, and trade will lose against geo-strategic interests.

Yeah, I realise that was the motive, but it wasn't intelligent and there are more sensible ways the US could be giving that message to the SK population - also one mustn't forget that there is a large 'peace at any price' faction in SK and being a cynic, one might suggest that the US were primarily concerned to terrify the peacenik faction in SK rather than in NK.

Either way, I think as a gesture it was dumb. The US knows perfectly well that NK is no threat to them but it actively feeds the absurd pretensions of the NK government to engage in this kind of ramping up - it treats their bellicose bull**** as serious and worthy of serious military response.

Walk softly and carry a big stick.

US foreign policy in Asia is based around one primary element right now. Convincing it's allies that it is dependable, reliable and is willing to come to the aid of its allies. If Japan or South Korea stop believing they are well and truly under the American defensive umbrella we will see some pretty hefty consequences.

There are growing militaristic elements in both Japan and South Korea. In the latter there are very real debates about developing domestic nuclear weapons, if the South Korean government and population stop believing the US is there to protect them we will likely see a South Korean nuke and then the whole region goes to hell. The only way to truly convince an ally you are there for them is a show of military force, joint exercises that sort of thing. Call it a provocation or whatever you want but this sort of thing is far far more stabilizing in the long term than doing nothing.