Purely hypothetical, if WIII occured, what country would most likely start it?

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75% of Earth's military spending goes to NATO. NATO also contributes 60% of the world's GDP, and when you consider it's other allies (other members of the EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand) it becomes clear that any world war would be extremely one sided in the West's favour.

Conversely, attacking Russia or China would be pointless for NATO; both of those states are nuclear armed and both are trading partners anyway.

If there's going to be a world war it cannot start with NATO involved; the party starting it would have to be suicidal. The only possible war scenario that makes military sense (but which is extremely unlikely) would be Russia and India against China (as either side could win conventionally) but that too would probably just end with the loser threatening nuclear war to achieve status quo ante bellum.

In summary; I don't see any countries as likely to start a world war. North Korea might start a second Korean war but no one will rush to defend it when the Americans launch their retaliation and wipe it off the map.

Reply 81

tohaaaa

Hmmm... just saw this on BBC news: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21979127

Should we be more concerned or not????

Reply 82

tohaaaa

Another Update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21980395
.... Looks like there is going to be some fighting???

Reply 83

username963570

Original post by tohaaaa

Another Update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21980395
.... Looks like there is going to be some fighting???

i dunno... still seems like empty rhetoric to me , the training exercises that the US are conducting end in late april anyway , so i guess we'll see more and more of these tantrums by Kim jong-un till then , then it'll all die down or something.

I doubt that they will actually force a land invasion of South Korea , despite what they say.

Reply 84

tohaaaa

Original post by Fas

Interesting, what makes you think that the North won't land invade the south??

Reply 85

username963570

Original post by tohaaaa

Interesting, what makes you think that the North won't land invade the south??

obviously i can't tell for sure , but i reckon it would just be a suicidal move for NK. it would give the USA justification for moving in , and NK would have virtually no support in the move whatsoever and it would have pretty distrastrous economic consequences if it escalated into a full-blown war between the two ( and it would - i know if i was leader of South Korea , i wouldn't sit back and let Kim jong-un just walk in )

That said , kim jong-un has already shown himself to be incredibly moronic in his threats and what not. It's possible he would attempt something as bat-**** crazy as that.

Reply 86

tohaaaa

Original post by Fas

Suppose that did happen (and they lost), how would he justify to his people how they lost :cool:

Reply 87

BradWills20

I think we can safely assume one of the two parties to instigate it would be the US of A.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 88

username963570

Original post by tohaaaa

Suppose that did happen (and they lost), how would he justify to his people how they lost :cool:

That's another issue aswell - if he did go to war and lost , then the military would almost certainly drop their support for the leader significantly and the people aswell probably wouldn't support him ( they probably don't anyway , but are too scared to speak out )

If he did go to war and WIN however it would definitely cement his position as a strong leader of NK and support for him from the armed services would shoot up ( no pun intended ) drastically. <-- that's potentially a reason why he'd be crazy enough to start it , if he was dead certain in his own mind he could win without too severe casualties.

Reply 89

OrcFromOrgrimmar

The fault of causing the war always lies on both sides!!! :

1) The ignorance of the Dwarves

2) The arrogance of the Humans

Reply 90

tohaaaa

Original post by Fas

Just wondering, who are NK's allies? Who would they rely on for them to back them up in a war? Since USA have NATO on their side, I suppose if there was a war, it would be kind of one sided towards the NATO forces.

Reply 91

username963570

Original post by tohaaaa

NK would like to think it has Russia and China backing it , however in reality it has virtually no support from these two. China have already called for easing tensions , and as you say - SK would have USA who would have NATO backing , and to preserve it's economy China would probably not get involved on either side. Same goes for Russia i would presume , but not too sure about Putin's motives so who knows. So effectively Kim jong-un has no really reliable backing in this kind of war

Yes i agree with you when you say it would be one-sided. the war would last quite short and NK would pretty much get destroyed :tongue:

Reply 92

tohaaaa

Original post by Fas

Just wondering, suppose if NK went into war, and got owned. Would SK assume control and it would just become "Korea"?

Reply 93

username963570

Original post by tohaaaa

Just wondering, suppose if NK went into war, and got owned. Would SK assume control and it would just become "Korea"?

haha now that is an interesting question ! nah personally i think NK would have to pay something for starting the war , but i don't think SK would be allowed to practically annex the North Korean territory - that would undermine the UN quite badly i think.

America

Japan started the WII so if there is ever to be a WIII I think it would be started by Japan also.

Jokes aside, Africa is the dark horse here. Everyone forgets about them and the fact that the place is full of resources and nutters. If Nigeria fell to Islamic fundamentalists it is the most oil rich and densely populated African country and could easily take out the rest of West Africa. Russia and China may support them just for that sweet oil and the US may not because of the whole terrorism thing. Consequence is big international bust up over it.

Reply 96

tohaaaa

Original post by peter12345

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Germany start WWII?

Reply 97

peter12345

Original post by tohaaaa

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Germany start WWII?

*sigh*

OP spelt WWIII as WII which is the same as wii in lower case, a console invented in Japan so the joke was that only Japan could make a Nintendo Wii 3 i.e Wiii.

Reply 98

Octohedral

Everyone keeps saying 'oh, America will wipe NK off the map', but I think they're wrong.

America are perfectly capable of that, but NK is full of innocent brainwashed people, and the American government isn't stupid. They don't need a massive humanitarian black mark against their name. Nor, I'm sure, so they actually want to directly kill hundreds of civilians. I reckon they'd nuke North Korea only if they were a direct immediate threat - otherwise they'd try to decapitate its power base with conventional bombs or less powerful atom bombs. Or through the intelligence services.

No global power would start any kind of nuclear war if they are in their right mind (I know WWIII doesn't have to be nuclear but that will always be an ace in the pack for the losing side). Whatever anyone thinks about America, they are a comfortable, developed society. They will protect that to the last, but they will never actively seek out a war that they don't have complete control over, or that could reach their own shores.

(edited 11 years ago)

Reply 99

DaniilKaya

Original post by tohaaaa

Just wondering what all your opinions are. (As the question states above)

(Not sure if they're any other topics like this, if there are please excuse me, but I couldn't find any using search)

My opinion: North Korea

Why: Tensions are already soaring between DPRK and USA, and soon enough one side or the other will do something to annoy the other (e.g. test nukes).

North Korea is the self-destroying zombieland

My opinion: Iran and Israel - Pakistan relationship

Explanation: Today,these countries are the main points of tensions from the beginning of XXI .Indo-Pakistani conflict at the beginning of the XXI century has intensified because both states have developed nuclear weapons and actively building up its military strength.Today, military supplies to Pakistan carries U.S., and the supply of arms to India carries Russia.But Pakistan shows increased interest in the possibility of a military-technical cooperation with Russia and the U.S. are attempting to oust Russia from the Indian arms market.U.S. is allied with Israel, and the Arab states have traditionally bought weapons from Russia (with the exception of Egypt, who is actively cooperating with the U.S. in the military-technical sphere.)And in the case of the Arab-Israeli conflict to the level of war, it may be a direct or indirect conflict between nuclear powers - the U.S. and Russia.

In the outbreak of a third world war can be indirectly interested U.S. considering a new world war as an effective way out of the global financial crisis from 2000s. The script worked during the Second World War as a result United States emerged from the Great Depression.

P.S At December 31, 2012 the U.S. debt reached 16.432 trillion dollars.
Total amount of money on the Earth - about 50 trillion USD