**The "North Korea Watch 2013" Update Thread**
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It seems odd to me that there isn't more on the Chinese boarder buildup. What the Chinese would do is surely a massive factor in this. I think slightly alarming that the scale of the potential conflict is being played down.
Why is this happening now, what are NK up to? we hear in the media as tho the people who have managed to out maneuver the international community to get to this point are irrational morons who just happen to feel like armageddon today. Rubbish about the Chinese not liking NK anymore while they prepare their forces to honour their defence agreement. Renewed sanctions for a nuclear test? They've had (and ignored) sanctions before and have tested nukes before. Military operations have been conducted with the south before.
Could it be feared that in development missile defences would shift the balance by rendering existing weapons useless and so rendering their "deterrent" useless? As we know our nuclear deterrent is of utmost importance. If that situation were reversed clearly our Dear Radish Head wouldn't be too happy.
Why is this happening now, what are NK up to? we hear in the media as tho the people who have managed to out maneuver the international community to get to this point are irrational morons who just happen to feel like armageddon today. Rubbish about the Chinese not liking NK anymore while they prepare their forces to honour their defence agreement. Renewed sanctions for a nuclear test? They've had (and ignored) sanctions before and have tested nukes before. Military operations have been conducted with the south before.
Could it be feared that in development missile defences would shift the balance by rendering existing weapons useless and so rendering their "deterrent" useless? As we know our nuclear deterrent is of utmost importance. If that situation were reversed clearly our Dear Radish Head wouldn't be too happy.
Or could it be Iran? Are Iran reaching the point where its attack now or never? Its hard to see the US attacking them with all this going on. If NK's scientists in Iran know that they need however long in order to have a "deterrent" then this would seem an obvious tactic. Tho where sufficient benefit to NK would come from is harder to see.
Original post by green.tea
It seems odd to me that there isn't more on the Chinese boarder buildup. What the Chinese would do is surely a massive factor in this. I think slightly alarming that the scale of the potential conflict is being played down.
Why is this happening now, what are NK up to? we hear in the media as tho the people who have managed to out maneuver the international community to get to this point are irrational morons who just happen to feel like armageddon today. Rubbish about the Chinese not liking NK anymore while they prepare their forces to honour their defence agreement. Renewed sanctions for a nuclear test? They've had (and ignored) sanctions before and have tested nukes before. Military operations have been conducted with the south before.
Could it be feared that in development missile defences would shift the balance by rendering existing weapons useless and so rendering their "deterrent" useless? As we know our nuclear deterrent is of utmost importance. If that situation were reversed clearly our Dear Radish Head wouldn't be too happy.
Why is this happening now, what are NK up to? we hear in the media as tho the people who have managed to out maneuver the international community to get to this point are irrational morons who just happen to feel like armageddon today. Rubbish about the Chinese not liking NK anymore while they prepare their forces to honour their defence agreement. Renewed sanctions for a nuclear test? They've had (and ignored) sanctions before and have tested nukes before. Military operations have been conducted with the south before.
Could it be feared that in development missile defences would shift the balance by rendering existing weapons useless and so rendering their "deterrent" useless? As we know our nuclear deterrent is of utmost importance. If that situation were reversed clearly our Dear Radish Head wouldn't be too happy.
The funny thing is, the United States invaded Iraq for much much less. What on Earth is it about North Korea? Maybe it's the China factor that is making the United States particularly slow and even hesitant (although the change in President and administration could also be a large factor). Iraq never threatened the United States to this degree - if they even did so. They did not threaten to annihilate the United States. No WMDs were even found in the bloody country for the love of goodness!
And yet, we have North Korea making constant and increasing escalating threats whilst actively developing firepower and making preparations to carry out such threats.
I believe the main factor in America's hesitance is China - but I am interested in how much trouble North Korea has created and how serious this apparently "silly" and "incompetent" state is being taken.
Original post by green.tea
Or could it be Iran? Are Iran reaching the point where its attack now or never? Its hard to see the US attacking them with all this going on. If NK's scientists in Iran know that they need however long in order to have a "deterrent" then this would seem an obvious tactic. Tho where sufficient benefit to NK would come from is harder to see.
Doubtful. The last news we heard about Iran was that it was cooperating with the International Community and the UN. All of the hubbub surrounding Iran has died down a lot - the focus is now on North Korea clearly.
I haven't heard any news about Iran and its nuclear matters for ages....
Korea crisis: UN's Ban warns of 'serious implications'
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has appealed to North Korea to change course, saying it has "gone too far" in its rhetoric.
He said he was concerned any "unwanted crisis" on the Korean peninsula would have "very serious implications".
The warning came hours after South Korea's foreign minister said the North had shifted a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast.
Pyongyang earlier renewed threats of a nuclear strike against the US.
However, its missiles are not believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
White House spokesman Jay Carney described the threats as "regrettable but familiar", adding the US was taking "all the necessary precautions".
Mr Ban told a news conference in Madrid that "nuclear threat is not a game, it's very serious... I think they [North Korea] have gone too far in their rhetoric".
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has appealed to North Korea to change course, saying it has "gone too far" in its rhetoric.
He said he was concerned any "unwanted crisis" on the Korean peninsula would have "very serious implications".
The warning came hours after South Korea's foreign minister said the North had shifted a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast.
Pyongyang earlier renewed threats of a nuclear strike against the US.
However, its missiles are not believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
White House spokesman Jay Carney described the threats as "regrettable but familiar", adding the US was taking "all the necessary precautions".
Mr Ban told a news conference in Madrid that "nuclear threat is not a game, it's very serious... I think they [North Korea] have gone too far in their rhetoric".
Pyongyang earlier renewed threats of a nuclear strike against the US.
However, its missiles are not believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Interesting. The bit in bold is stated every time on different news media. It is always "it is believed" - what this entails is that, we cannot actually be sure that North Korea's missiles aren't capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This entire time, we've been under the impression that their missiles are not capable of carrying nuclear warheads - and yet, there now seems to be differing opinions on the matter.
Even so, I do find it interesting how this seemingly "incompetent" country has the full attention of the planet. I thought they were just meant to be a "silly" nation to be made fun of - something you joke about whilst having a laugh...
A full out war is quite unlikely as it doesn't really help either side.
But, NK's officials will look pretty weak if they said they would strike and they don't and they seem to me like the type of leaders that need to assert their power etc. Also, with their nation starved of resources, maybe they haven't got much to lose?
But, NK's officials will look pretty weak if they said they would strike and they don't and they seem to me like the type of leaders that need to assert their power etc. Also, with their nation starved of resources, maybe they haven't got much to lose?
Original post by HumanSupremacist
Doubtful. The last news we heard about Iran was that it was cooperating with the International Community and the UN. All of the hubbub surrounding Iran has died down a lot - the focus is now on North Korea clearly.
I haven't heard any news about Iran and its nuclear matters for ages....
I haven't heard any news about Iran and its nuclear matters for ages....
http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-us-iran-nuclear-talks-20130403,0,1815447.story
Whether its intentional or not the Korean situation will have huge bearing on military options available against Iran while it continues. If you think that our governments were duped into believing Iraq had wmd's when it was really happening at Bushehr then this would seem to fit the pattern of the too much bread, not enough butter strategy that seems to fit events. Communists do tend to see Muslims as potential allies and Iran does have an awful lot of oil.
Or it could be the other way round. The US realising that it would be too weak on the Korean front if it had to attack Iran and so wanting to deal with them now.
(edited 11 years ago)
At this time of course, I'm also interested in the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 Unit 2 "satellite" that was launched last year by North Korea. It was said by the US that the satellite was 'tumbling out of control' and yet, the South Koreans at the same time said that it was orbiting normally - yes, the South Koreans said that. So, the US and SK seemed to be contradicting themselves even though they are allies - goodness knows who is correct..
In any case, I do hope that there is nothing untoward about that "satellite". Its lifetimes is predicted by NK to last for about two years. It is supposedly to monitor weather and predict crop yield.
Now, we venture into the land of conspiracies and silliness:
Basically, in a certain game (which I'm sure Kim has been playing fervently), a similar satellite like the Kwang-3 one is launched. It is later revealed to be a near-sophisticated EMP device which explodes above the United States and causes havoc.
Now, I'm not saying that satellite is an EMP device of some sort or is a dormant nuke (that would be far too advanced for the North Koreans), but there is word on the internet and in certain news media that the United States is concerned that North Korea could explode a high-altitude nuclear device above the United States:
U.S. ON ALERT FOR NUCLEAR BLAST OVERHEAD
'Space launch vehicle' could put kill electric grid, devastate nation
WASHINGTON – U.S. officials quietly are expressing concern that North Korea could use its “space launch vehicle” to explode a high-altitude nuclear device over the United States, creating an electromagnetic pulse that would destroy major portions of the U.S. electrical grid system as well as the nation’s critical infrastructures.
The concern is so great that U.S. officials who watch North Korea closely are continually monitoring the status of the North Korean “space launch vehicle,” whose status could suggest a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States.
They are aware of the three-stage missile North Korea launched last December that also orbited a “package,” which experts say could be a test to orbit a nuclear weapon that then would be deorbited on command anywhere over the U.S. and exploded at a high altitude, creating an EMP effect.
This is concerning. But could it be a slight over-estimation of the capabilities of the North Koreans...
In any case, I do hope that there is nothing untoward about that "satellite". Its lifetimes is predicted by NK to last for about two years. It is supposedly to monitor weather and predict crop yield.
Now, we venture into the land of conspiracies and silliness:
Basically, in a certain game (which I'm sure Kim has been playing fervently), a similar satellite like the Kwang-3 one is launched. It is later revealed to be a near-sophisticated EMP device which explodes above the United States and causes havoc.
Now, I'm not saying that satellite is an EMP device of some sort or is a dormant nuke (that would be far too advanced for the North Koreans), but there is word on the internet and in certain news media that the United States is concerned that North Korea could explode a high-altitude nuclear device above the United States:
U.S. ON ALERT FOR NUCLEAR BLAST OVERHEAD
'Space launch vehicle' could put kill electric grid, devastate nation
WASHINGTON – U.S. officials quietly are expressing concern that North Korea could use its “space launch vehicle” to explode a high-altitude nuclear device over the United States, creating an electromagnetic pulse that would destroy major portions of the U.S. electrical grid system as well as the nation’s critical infrastructures.
The concern is so great that U.S. officials who watch North Korea closely are continually monitoring the status of the North Korean “space launch vehicle,” whose status could suggest a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States.
They are aware of the three-stage missile North Korea launched last December that also orbited a “package,” which experts say could be a test to orbit a nuclear weapon that then would be deorbited on command anywhere over the U.S. and exploded at a high altitude, creating an EMP effect.
This is concerning. But could it be a slight over-estimation of the capabilities of the North Koreans...
(edited 11 years ago)
North Korea 'asks Russia to evacuate embassy staff' as China loses patience
South Korea 'deploys warships to track North missiles'
A Russian embassy spokesman claimed North Korea had asked about possible evacuation from Pyongyang as America's former top diplomat in Asia warned there were clear signs China was losing patience with the county.
Kurt Campbell, the former head of the State department in Asia said:"There is a subtle shift in Chinese foreign policy. Over the short to medium term, that has the potential to affect the calculus in north east Asia."
China has also continued to move tanks and armored vehicles whilst flying flights near North Korea this week as part of a military build-up in the northeastern part of the country that U.S. officials say is related to the crisis with North Korea.
In a dramatic twist yesterday, China reportedly rejected a request from the North to send them an envoy in order to improve their soured relations, in what could be seen as a warning regarding the regime’s recent warmongering rhetoric.
The Russians meanwhile have confirmed that they would not yet evacuate any staff from Pyongyang.
Kurt Campbell, the former head of the State department in Asia said:"There is a subtle shift in Chinese foreign policy. Over the short to medium term, that has the potential to affect the calculus in north east Asia."
China has also continued to move tanks and armored vehicles whilst flying flights near North Korea this week as part of a military build-up in the northeastern part of the country that U.S. officials say is related to the crisis with North Korea.
In a dramatic twist yesterday, China reportedly rejected a request from the North to send them an envoy in order to improve their soured relations, in what could be seen as a warning regarding the regime’s recent warmongering rhetoric.
The Russians meanwhile have confirmed that they would not yet evacuate any staff from Pyongyang.
South Korea 'deploys warships to track North missiles'
South Korea has deployed two warships with missile-defence systems, reports say, a day after the North apparently moved a missile to its east coast.
Military officials told South Korean media the two warships would be deployed on the east and west coasts.
Seoul has played down the North's missile move, saying it may be for a test rather than a hostile act.
Military officials told South Korean media the two warships would be deployed on the east and west coasts.
Seoul has played down the North's missile move, saying it may be for a test rather than a hostile act.
This is just a crazy thought and there is no way I believe this would happen its just a what if scenario. What would be the reaction by the US etc if China invaded North Korea and took control?
Original post by AgentSushi
This is just a crazy thought and there is no way I believe this would happen its just a what if scenario. What would be the reaction by the US etc if China invaded North Korea and took control?
Surprise. Followed by an interception of the missiles heading towards Alaska as NK retaliates for the actions of the American puppet regime in China.
Original post by HumanSupremacist
This is concerning. But could it be a slight over-estimation of the capabilities of the North Koreans...
This is concerning. But could it be a slight over-estimation of the capabilities of the North Koreans...
From my somewhat limited technical knowledge of NK capabilities, gleaned from reading numerous articles, it would appear to be totally beyond their current capability, which makes you wonder why US 'officials' would say that. If they are at the Pentagon or in one of the usual suspect 'close-in' think tanks/policy centres, then we can assume it's just part of the usual budget-building activity. If it's something more than that, like a White House source, it's quite worrying and either suggests that (a) we are not being informed of the real scale of the threat or (b) the US govt are deluded about the scale of the threat or (c) they wish to delude the public about the scale of the threat.
Original post by green.tea
Surprise. Followed by an interception of the missiles heading towards Alaska as NK retaliates for the actions of the American puppet regime in China.
Lol, yes, followed by threats of "total retaliation by all of the united people's frenzy" and "the blasting to dust and ashes of all running-dog imperialist Chinese cities", etc, etc.
Comical Kim probably has some way to go.
Original post by green.tea
Surprise. Followed by an interception of the missiles heading towards Alaska as NK retaliates for the actions of the American puppet regime in China.
But lets say that China successfully took control of North Korea incorporating it into the rest of China. What would the international response be?
This is totally hypothetical before anyone says this will never happen, I know it won't.
Original post by AgentSushi
But lets say that China successfully took control of North Korea incorporating it into the rest of China. What would the international response be?
This is totally hypothetical before anyone says this will never happen, I know it won't.
This is totally hypothetical before anyone says this will never happen, I know it won't.
[Paraphrasing]
Publicly in media: Grr, naughty, you shouldn't go invading countries like that, you naughty boy, you.
Privately out of media: Oh thank God. Good work. Here, have some redevelopment money. Oh, and don't be mean to South Korea, ok?
Original post by Narutopolaris
Does anyone else feel a strange form of euphoria whilst this is all happening? I mean, imagine if War would break out! It would be in our lifetime, without the UK taking part; we could watch nations annihilate themselves for the first time in our history! 
Im so pumped up for war
Im so pumped up for war Ah yes of course, euphoria at the thought that a nuclear war could break out! No big deal or anything, not remotely dangerous, it's not like hundreds of thousands of lives could be lost or anything, so yeah, besides that, totally euphoric! Better get the popcorn out to eat while I watch.
Original post by Narutopolaris
Does anyone else feel a strange form of euphoria whilst this is all happening? I mean, imagine if War would break out! It would be in our lifetime, without the UK taking part; we could watch nations annihilate themselves for the first time in our history! Im so pumped up for war
Im so pumped up for war Yeah but knowing us we'd end up getting involved some how.
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