**The "North Korea Watch 2013" Update Thread**
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Original post by KingMessi
I see. I agree with the bolded section - from what I can glean America could essentially destroy North Korea without any assistance - though I suppose one would have said the same before Vietnam and Afghanistan. Anyway, I'd be quite content with us remaining only superficially 'involved'. 
(Aware, of course, this is all a hypothetical situation).
(Aware, of course, this is all a hypothetical situation).Well they did destroy both Vietnam and Afghanistan - the conventional 'destroy infrastructure and military targets' bits went perfectly well in both campaigns. Where they went awry was on the ground afterwards fighting a guerilla war. In 'conventional' warfare using recognised armies, air forces and navies agaist one another they're unmatched and unequalled in strength, technology and abilities.
Original post by KingMessi
I see. I agree with the bolded section - from what I can glean America could essentially destroy North Korea without any assistance - though I suppose one would have said the same before Vietnam and Afghanistan. Anyway, I'd be quite content with us remaining only superficially 'involved'. (Aware, of course, this is all a hypothetical situation).
(Aware, of course, this is all a hypothetical situation).Even if we weren't involved, if there were to be a conflict in that region, the economic effects would trickle down to us - and the bigger and more dangerous the conflict, the worse the economic effects would be, not to mention how much panic there would be in every market.
Of course, moving further, if it ratcheted up a notch to nuclear conflict, well, I needn't say anymore shall I....
Although not exactly relevant to the current situation, I definitely think that everyone should check this out: http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-uncovered-google-earth/
It's a file for Google earth (.kmz) that maps North Korean infrastructure and it basically shows the locations of all sorts of infrastructure in the country, from the sinister such as military sites, prison camps, and nuclear facilities, to the more mundane like monuments, hotels, restaurants, palaces and other places of interest.
Just a little thing I found. Check it out if you find this kind of stuff interesting. Bear in mind: It was last updated in 2009.
It's a file for Google earth (.kmz) that maps North Korean infrastructure and it basically shows the locations of all sorts of infrastructure in the country, from the sinister such as military sites, prison camps, and nuclear facilities, to the more mundane like monuments, hotels, restaurants, palaces and other places of interest.
Just a little thing I found. Check it out if you find this kind of stuff interesting. Bear in mind: It was last updated in 2009.
(edited 11 years ago)
Original post by Drewski
Well they did destroy both Vietnam and Afghanistan - the conventional 'destroy infrastructure and military targets' bits went perfectly well in both campaigns. Where they went awry was on the ground afterwards fighting a guerilla war. In 'conventional' warfare using recognised armies, air forces and navies agaist one another they're unmatched and unequalled in strength, technology and abilities.
Afghanistan is also said to be the "graveyard of Empires" anyway. So far, it's actually be a fairly failed mission, one could say. Iraq also wasn't exactly the most successful of missions either, especially when the reason for actually invading was found to be unfounded.
Original post by HumanSupremacist
Even if we weren't involved, if there were to be a conflict in that region, the economic effects would trickle down to us - and the bigger and more dangerous the conflict, the worse the economic effects would be, not to mention how much panic there would be in every market.
Of course, moving further, if it ratcheted up a notch to nuclear conflict, well, I needn't say anymore shall I....
Of course, moving further, if it ratcheted up a notch to nuclear conflict, well, I needn't say anymore shall I....
Please excuse my ignorance, but would the economic effects be as a result of trade issues? Or would it be the costs of other countries fighting expensive wars that use up a lot of government capital? Or both? Or something else?
Well, naturally the thought of nuclear conflict doesn't bear thinking about.
Original post by Drewski
Well they did destroy both Vietnam and Afghanistan - the conventional 'destroy infrastructure and military targets' bits went perfectly well in both campaigns. Where they went awry was on the ground afterwards fighting a guerilla war. In 'conventional' warfare using recognised armies, air forces and navies agaist one another they're unmatched and unequalled in strength, technology and abilities.
Oh, I know. I meant the guerilla aspects when I implied that things hadn't gone quite according to plan in either conflict. In any case, how relevant do you think that those conflicts are to this potential one with North Korea?
Does anyone actually think the leader would be mad enough to attempt to start a nuclear war?
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Original post by charcharchar
Does anyone actually think the leader would be mad enough to attempt to start a nuclear war?
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Posted from TSR Mobile
It's hard to tell. One would hope not, but North Korea are so obscurantist in their activities, and Mr. Un seems so oblivious to reality, that I can't let my mind rest in complete comfort.
Original post by KingMessi
Oh, I know. I meant the guerilla aspects when I implied that things hadn't gone quite according to plan in either conflict. In any case, how relevant do you think that those conflicts are to this potential one with North Korea?
Not very, really. It's a different mission here because rather than having to set up a new country, they've got one ready to take over.
Original post by charcharchar
Does anyone actually think the leader would be mad enough to attempt to start a nuclear war?
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Posted from TSR Mobile
This current young leader, Kim Jong Un, is unpredictable.
However, having said that, NK are not stupid. If this is indeed all rhetoric and posturing, it is simply to cement Kim Jong Un's authority and image at home.
Beginning a war, nuclear or otherwise, would ensure the downfall of North Korea as we know it and the complete end of the Kim dynasty (unless of course crazy unforeseen consequences occur).
So, for those reasons and because I believe NK are not stupid, I do not think that they will start a nuclear war.
Having said that, they could feign being "attacked" - e.g. conduct a missile test during this period of heightened alert (meaning it'll be shot down by the nervous Japanese/South Koreans etc) and then NK will shout to the hills that it was attacked, so that in the event of military retaliation by a US-led coalition, it would be backed by China (because NK will claim to China that it never attacked), or so NK believes.
Original post by HumanSupremacist
This current young leader, Kim Jong Un, is unpredictable.
However, having said that, NK are not stupid. If this is indeed all rhetoric and posturing, it is simply to cement Kim Jong Un's authority and image at home.
Beginning a war, nuclear or otherwise, would ensure the downfall of North Korea as we know it and the complete end of the Kim dynasty (unless of course crazy unforeseen consequences occur).
So, for those reasons and because I believe NK are not stupid, I do not think that they will start a nuclear war.
Having said that, they could feign being "attacked" - e.g. conduct a missile test during this period of heightened alert (meaning it'll be shot down by the nervous Japanese/South Koreans etc) and then NK will shout to the hills that it was attacked, so that in the event of military retaliation by a US-led coalition, it would be backed by China (because NK will claim to China that it never attacked), or so NK believes.
However, having said that, NK are not stupid. If this is indeed all rhetoric and posturing, it is simply to cement Kim Jong Un's authority and image at home.
Beginning a war, nuclear or otherwise, would ensure the downfall of North Korea as we know it and the complete end of the Kim dynasty (unless of course crazy unforeseen consequences occur).
So, for those reasons and because I believe NK are not stupid, I do not think that they will start a nuclear war.
Having said that, they could feign being "attacked" - e.g. conduct a missile test during this period of heightened alert (meaning it'll be shot down by the nervous Japanese/South Koreans etc) and then NK will shout to the hills that it was attacked, so that in the event of military retaliation by a US-led coalition, it would be backed by China (because NK will claim to China that it never attacked), or so NK believes.
I really don't think China would be stupid enough to get involved with helping NK in any circumstances.
Original post by Noble.
I really don't think China would be stupid enough to get involved with helping NK in any circumstances.
I wholeheartedly agree.
North Korea, on the other hand, wouldn't agree.
Original post by KingMessi
On a side note: wasn't today (the tenth) the day North Korea said all British and U.S. ambassadors should have left by?
North Korea advised that foreign ambassadors should leave - it did not request that they do so. Specifically, North Korea advised that that foreign ambassadors should leave by April 10th as they would not be able to guarantee the safety of those ambassadors after April 10th (it's currently late morning/early afternoon on the Korean peninsula).
Some analysts say that this is just further posturing and rhetoric on the part of North Korea. Others disagree.
(edited 11 years ago)
North Korea: South On Alert For Missile Launch
South Korea fears Pyongyang could launch up to three missiles after weeks of threats, according to local reports.
South Korea and the US have upgraded their military surveillance status on the Korean Peninsula amid concerns Pyongyang is ready to fire up to three missiles.
North Korea, which previously said it cannot guarantee the safety of foreign embassy workers after Wednesday, is believed to have moved weaponry to its eastern coast, facing Japan.
It has also warned foreigners living in South Korea to leave the country to avoid being dragged into a "thermonuclear war".
One unnamed official told the Yonhap news agency: "There are clear signs that the North could simultaneously fire off Musudan, Scud and Nodong missiles."
The South has also brought in extra intelligence officers.
In a separate report, Yonhap said the Combined Forces Command had raised the "Watchcon" status from three to two reflecting indications of a "vital threat".
Watchcon 4 is in effect during normal peacetime, while Watchcon 3 reflects indications of an important threat. Watchcon 1 is used in wartime.
So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).
The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.
Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.
If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.
In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.
South Korea fears Pyongyang could launch up to three missiles after weeks of threats, according to local reports.
South Korea and the US have upgraded their military surveillance status on the Korean Peninsula amid concerns Pyongyang is ready to fire up to three missiles.
North Korea, which previously said it cannot guarantee the safety of foreign embassy workers after Wednesday, is believed to have moved weaponry to its eastern coast, facing Japan.
It has also warned foreigners living in South Korea to leave the country to avoid being dragged into a "thermonuclear war".
One unnamed official told the Yonhap news agency: "There are clear signs that the North could simultaneously fire off Musudan, Scud and Nodong missiles."
The South has also brought in extra intelligence officers.
In a separate report, Yonhap said the Combined Forces Command had raised the "Watchcon" status from three to two reflecting indications of a "vital threat".
Watchcon 4 is in effect during normal peacetime, while Watchcon 3 reflects indications of an important threat. Watchcon 1 is used in wartime.
So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).
The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.
Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.
If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.
In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.
(edited 11 years ago)
One thing I find worrying. The contract they had to open that hotel of theirs has been cancelled through all this. Unlike the industrial park they can't really reverse that and unlike the industrial park it was as much about making NK and its leadership look good as their economy which is allegedly the point of this whole exercise. They're sacrificing the thing they're supposedly after by taking this course.
Original post by HumanSupremacist
North Korea: South On Alert For Missile Launch
So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).
The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.
Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.
If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.
In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.
So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).
The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.
Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.
If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.
In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.
If NK fire a missile eastward it will almost certainly be shot down. Rightly so. If they want to test one they can fire it south into the east China sea like they did last time. Tho I don't see what good it would do them. NK can tell most of its population anything they want and in the eyes of those in the know randomly firing a missile under the guise of a test wouldnt really cut it. Firing a new missile with improved capabilities might but there's no suggestion that they have one. They've built more than one musudan so it's likely that it uses a proven design that they know will work. There's some suggestion that they're mockups but thats difficult to believe when they've already fired bigger ones.
The actual rocket design is a liquid fuel rocket using a hypergolic combination of unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine as fuel, and inhibited red fuming nitric acid as oxidizer; this fuel/oxidizer combination does not vaporise like liquified hydrogen/oxygen gas at 35°C. As a result, once the fuel/oxidizer combination were fed into the missile, it could maintain a 'ready to launch' condition for several days, or even weeks, like the R-27 SLBM; however it could not be kept longer than this, because of tank corrosion caused by the red fuming nitric acid. A fueled Musudan would not have the structural strength to be land transported, so would have to be fueled at the launch site.[2]
ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM25_Musudan
Would be interesting to know if they've fueled them which we would presumably know since we can see them in position.I guess if they have a test may be a best case scenario as it would essentially an end to it and them firing the missiles as they're already used anyway and may as well learn what they can from them.
Original post by Idle
I seriously hope something is done about North Korea, military wise. Saying you will nuke someone is no laughing matter regardless of if you mean it or not. I hope he's assassinated by a SEAL team although the chance of it happening is slim.
That would be unwise.
Original post by green.tea
That would be unwise.
Every option is "unwise" in some way. Unless there is actually some solid intelligence that the leadership is falling apart they need to go, sanctions have been tried and are not working. Kim Jong Un I hoped would be a change but he is as much of a nutter as his father.
The international community can shout and moan all they want, when a country says they will nuke another then I cannot see how that is not legitimate grounds for their leadership to be eliminated.
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