**The "North Korea Watch 2013" Update Thread**

Every option is "unwise" in some way. Unless there is actually some solid intelligence that the leadership is falling apart they need to go, sanctions have been tried and are not working. Kim Jong Un I hoped would be a change but he is as much of a nutter as his father.

The international community can shout and moan all they want, when a country says they will nuke another then I cannot see how that is not legitimate grounds for their leadership to be eliminated.

Lets admit, if Kim Jong does actually have the courage to fire a missile at the US or one of its allies, NK is going to get blown of the face of the earth. Its not like I want it to happen, but I can't think of a country that would side with NK in a conflict against the US, and starting war with the US isn't the cleverest thing to do.

North Korea: South On Alert For Missile Launch




So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).

The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.

Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.

If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.

In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.

I don't buy that Kim Jong-un is in any need to cement his leadership. In fact, I don't think any of the analyst's theories completely explain North Korea's actions.

If anything's going to happen, it will happen on the 15th. North Korea's Day of the Sun.

What do you suggest then? You believe that this is the real deal and not just threats anymore?

The thing is, the country is so secretive that you are always going on incomplete information. A few commentaries I've read seem to take it as a given that regime preservation is one of the fundamental goals. That makes sense, but it gets me thinking what the purpose of the North Korean regime's existence is, and I think you need to strip the country bare to answer that. All it seems you can really say is that they appear to be trying to force the US and South Korea into one-sided negotiations, but given the severity of the threats, what could they be hoping to extract this time around? I definitely don't think this is the real deal at any rate. They have absolutely nothing to gain from open warfare and everything to lose.

The thing is, the country is so secretive that you are always going on incomplete information. A few commentaries I've read seem to take it as a given that regime preservation is one of the fundamental goals. That makes sense, but it gets me thinking what the purpose of the North Korean regime's existence is, and I think you need to strip the country bare to answer that. All it seems you can really say is that they appear to be trying to force the US and South Korea into one-sided negotiations, but given the severity of the threats, what could they be hoping to extract this time around? I definitely don't think this is the real deal at any rate. They have absolutely nothing to gain from open warfare and everything to lose.

It can clearly be seen that Kim is now under pressure at home

This escaped notice thanks to NK... Pakistan test fires nuclear capable missile that could hit deep within India

Can it? How? NK media would never put out a dissenting opinion, it wouldn't be allowed to. No Government official would say anything other than he's a demiGod and nobody else is allowed a public opinion. So how the hell do you come to that conclusion?

The thing is, the country is so secretive that you are always going on incomplete information. A few commentaries I've read seem to take it as a given that regime preservation is one of the fundamental goals. That makes sense, but it gets me thinking what the purpose of the North Korean regime's existence is, and I think you need to strip the country bare to answer that. All it seems you can really say is that they appear to be trying to force the US and South Korea into one-sided negotiations, but given the severity of the threats, what could they be hoping to extract this time around? I definitely don't think this is the real deal at any rate. They have absolutely nothing to gain from open warfare and everything to lose.

It's all about money, they need another source of money, that will make them less reliant on China, which is currently the only thing between NK and the abyss. The US is an ideal target for such negotiations, along with SK as these powers don't want to engage in any conflict with NK and buying peace is cheaper than waging war.

Maybe not "clearly" per se, but I am going on the word of US and SK analysts who cite various occurrences which imply such things - such as Kim's aunt and uncle possibly pulling the strings and possible conflict with high-ranking army officers (this is particularly implied due to several demotions and then subsequent promotions and "deaths" etc).

Nevertheless, even so, Kim will still need to do *something* because he needs to cement his authority - he cannot appear weak to high-ranking officials and the people at home.