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Original post by TopHat
Whoops - I was doing using the dates of the matches. I forgot Rome and Madrid used to be in a different order. Good catch.
The funniest thing about Murray not winning (or getting to a final) of a clay event is that he's gone into a clay tournament as defending champion before.
Original post by Zepploydath
The funniest thing about Murray not winning (or getting to a final) of a clay event is that he's gone into a clay tournament as defending champion before.
Yeah Madrid 2009 wasn't it? When the surface got changed after he won the title in 2008?
Original post by TopHat
Where does the impression Murray is terrible on clay come from? He's not bad on clay. If we take 2008 as his "break-through" year, he made 3R of the French Open, losing to Nicolas Almagro, who has been world no.9 and is a clay-specialist. There's no shame in that. In 2009, he made the quarter-finals, losing to Gonzalez, who has been world no.5 and while not a clay "specialist", is certainly better on clay then other surfaces. In 2010 he lost to an on fire Berdych in R4 (literally, go watch that match, Berdych was insane). In 2011 he made the semis before losing to Rafa. Need I say more? In 2012, he lost to David Ferrer in a relatively close match. We're talking about the world no.4 and another clay-court specialist, and Murray had an awful start to 2012 anyway, he played ****e the entire first half of the year until Wimbledon, really.
At Monte Carlo, he lost in 2008 to Djokovic in 3R, but Djokovic is probably the second best clay player of this generation. In 2009, he lost to Nadal, the best, in the SF. Okay, he had a total mug in 2010, lost to Kohlschreiber comprehensively. In 2011, he lost to Nadal, in the SF, after taking a set from Nadal. Think about that for a mo. He took a set from Rafael Nadal on clay at Monte Carlo. In 2012 he lost to Berdych, although it was a mug loss.
At Madrid, he lost in 2008 to Wawrinka in 2R, and it was an incredibly close match - he almost took the second set in the tiebreak. You have to remember Wawrinka made the final that year. At Madrid, he lost in 2009 to Monaco in 2R. Can't really defend this one, Murray was just ****. In 2010, he lost to Ferrer in 3R. Again, Ferrer is an extremely good clay-court player. In 2011, he made the SF, losing to Djokovic in 3 seats with the 3rd a tiebreaker. 2012 he had a mug loss to Gasquet.
At Rome, he lost in 2008 to Nadal in R3. In 2009, QF to Del Potro - this is in Del Potro's break-through year. His form was terrifying. In 2010, QF to Ferrer. In 2011, he lost to Belluci when Belluci had the crazy run which saw him take out Berdych in 2 easy sets, and take Djokovic to 3 close sets - yeah, 2011 Djokovic as well. In 2012, he was absent through injury.
Barring 2012, these are really, really good results. Had it not been for Belluci, Murray would probably have made 3 clay SFs in 2011. If you wanted a ranking of current players on clay, it'd probably look like this:
Nadal
Djokovic
Federer
Ferrer
Berdych
Murray
Yeah, and Murray is above Del Potro in terms of what each has achieved on clay, for sure, and almost certainly in what you'd expect to happen if they met on clay. When people talk about Murray being a clay mug, it's just unfair. He's not as good as the rest of the big 4 on clay, sure, but he's still easily within the top 10 clay players and probably the top 6.
EDIT: If anything, Monte Carlo is a massive chance for Berdych. He gets to have the 4th seed, which means (barring ****-ups) he's guaranteed the SF, and probably the F if he draws Murray.
At Monte Carlo, he lost in 2008 to Djokovic in 3R, but Djokovic is probably the second best clay player of this generation. In 2009, he lost to Nadal, the best, in the SF. Okay, he had a total mug in 2010, lost to Kohlschreiber comprehensively. In 2011, he lost to Nadal, in the SF, after taking a set from Nadal. Think about that for a mo. He took a set from Rafael Nadal on clay at Monte Carlo. In 2012 he lost to Berdych, although it was a mug loss.
At Madrid, he lost in 2008 to Wawrinka in 2R, and it was an incredibly close match - he almost took the second set in the tiebreak. You have to remember Wawrinka made the final that year. At Madrid, he lost in 2009 to Monaco in 2R. Can't really defend this one, Murray was just ****. In 2010, he lost to Ferrer in 3R. Again, Ferrer is an extremely good clay-court player. In 2011, he made the SF, losing to Djokovic in 3 seats with the 3rd a tiebreaker. 2012 he had a mug loss to Gasquet.
At Rome, he lost in 2008 to Nadal in R3. In 2009, QF to Del Potro - this is in Del Potro's break-through year. His form was terrifying. In 2010, QF to Ferrer. In 2011, he lost to Belluci when Belluci had the crazy run which saw him take out Berdych in 2 easy sets, and take Djokovic to 3 close sets - yeah, 2011 Djokovic as well. In 2012, he was absent through injury.
Barring 2012, these are really, really good results. Had it not been for Belluci, Murray would probably have made 3 clay SFs in 2011. If you wanted a ranking of current players on clay, it'd probably look like this:
Nadal
Djokovic
Federer
Ferrer
Berdych
Murray
Yeah, and Murray is above Del Potro in terms of what each has achieved on clay, for sure, and almost certainly in what you'd expect to happen if they met on clay. When people talk about Murray being a clay mug, it's just unfair. He's not as good as the rest of the big 4 on clay, sure, but he's still easily within the top 10 clay players and probably the top 6.
EDIT: If anything, Monte Carlo is a massive chance for Berdych. He gets to have the 4th seed, which means (barring ****-ups) he's guaranteed the SF, and probably the F if he draws Murray.
I'm not saying he's bad on clay, just not on a par with the players listed above, his career ranking is .610 and last year was .692.
I have to disagree with you regarding Del Potro though, not only has he actually won 4 clay tournaments (you can make the case that Murray avoids them but until he doesn't you have to go with the facts) but his career ranking is .732 and last season he was the third best on clay with .850. As we saw recently, he's inconsistent but he'd definitely back on form.
Original post by Rakas21
I'm not saying he's bad on clay, just not on a par with the players listed above, his career ranking is .610 and last year was .692.
I have to disagree with you regarding Del Potro though, not only has he actually won 4 clay tournaments (you can make the case that Murray avoids them but until he doesn't you have to go with the facts) but his career ranking is .732 and last season he was the third best on clay with .850. As we saw recently, he's inconsistent but he'd definitely back on form.
I have to disagree with you regarding Del Potro though, not only has he actually won 4 clay tournaments (you can make the case that Murray avoids them but until he doesn't you have to go with the facts) but his career ranking is .732 and last season he was the third best on clay with .850. As we saw recently, he's inconsistent but he'd definitely back on form.
Del Potro's clay titles are Stuttgart, the Austrian Open, and the Estoril Open (twice). That's four 250s. The career ranking just says your win-rate on a particular surface. You can dramatically boost your win-rate by turning up at 250s and cleaning up. Saying Del Potro is a better clay player than Murray because he has 4 clay titles and Murray does not when those clay titles are 250s is just a silly argument, even more so when you realize Murray doesn't bother with clay 250s. If he wanted to, he'd probably win quite a few given the general level of standard.
Original post by TopHat
Del Potro's clay titles are Stuttgart, the Austrian Open, and the Estoril Open (twice). That's four 250s. The career ranking just says your win-rate on a particular surface. You can dramatically boost your win-rate by turning up at 250s and cleaning up. Saying Del Potro is a better clay player than Murray because he has 4 clay titles and Murray does not when those clay titles are 250s is just a silly argument, even more so when you realize Murray doesn't bother with clay 250s. If he wanted to, he'd probably win quite a few given the general level of standard.
Delpo is better then murray on clay.
They're 1-1 head to head on clay, they've both made the SF of Roland, Murray has made SF of Monte Carlo but Del Potro only R2, Murray has made the the SF of Rome but Del Potro only the QF, Del Potro has made the SF of Madrid but Murray only the QF. Murray has a 70% win rate at the French Open, Del Potro has a 67% win rate at the French Open. That's pretty even with a slight edge for Murray. I'm sorry, but where is this evidence of Del Potro's might on clay? It's just not there.
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
(edited 11 years ago)
Original post by aja89
Trailer for the new documentary film about the Williams sisters, I can't wait to see it.
I've seen it already. It's pretty good
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Original post by Prendah
Just wondering, is Djokovic able to wait until the Monte Carlo draw is made to withdraw? I'm guessing hes waiting up until the 2nd round matches start in case he can play.
Pretty much. That in itself is a good sign, show's he's optimistic.
Original post by TopHat
They're 1-1 head to head on clay, they've both made the SF of Roland, Murray has made SF of Monte Carlo but Del Potro only R2, Murray has made the the SF of Rome but Del Potro only the QF, Del Potro has made the SF of Madrid but Murray only the QF. Murray has a 70% win rate at the French Open, Del Potro has a 67% win rate at the French Open. That's pretty even with a slight edge for Murray. I'm sorry, but where is this evidence of Del Potro's might on clay? It's just not there.
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
Let's not forget that the last 2 years Murray has been in really poor form (hangover from AO) and injured at the French Open both times. Add in Lendl's favourite surface being clay and adding in valuable input for Andy, he'll probably surprise some people in the next couple of months.
Original post by TopHat
Pretty much. That in itself is a good sign, show's he's optimistic.
So I guess he'll stay as 1st seed and his opponent will just get a walkover?
Original post by TopHat
They're 1-1 head to head on clay, they've both made the SF of Roland, Murray has made SF of Monte Carlo but Del Potro only R2, Murray has made the the SF of Rome but Del Potro only the QF, Del Potro has made the SF of Madrid but Murray only the QF. Murray has a 70% win rate at the French Open, Del Potro has a 67% win rate at the French Open. That's pretty even with a slight edge for Murray. I'm sorry, but where is this evidence of Del Potro's might on clay? It's just not there.
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
two 5 sets against federer in RG counts for something surely
also taking a set of djokovic in 2011's RG, when he was in the middle of recovering from his wrist injury while djokovic was at his very peak
I've always rated del potro over murray, but on clay, the gap is even bigger
Original post by Jack93o
Not as much as taking to Nadal at 3 in Monte Carlo.
Original post by Prendah
So I guess he'll stay as 1st seed and his opponent will just get a walkover?
If he drops out, yeah. It'd be a W/O. If he drops out before the draw is announced, it'll be an LL from qualifiers.
Original post by TopHat
They're 1-1 head to head on clay, they've both made the SF of Roland, Murray has made SF of Monte Carlo but Del Potro only R2, Murray has made the the SF of Rome but Del Potro only the QF, Del Potro has made the SF of Madrid but Murray only the QF. Murray has a 70% win rate at the French Open, Del Potro has a 67% win rate at the French Open. That's pretty even with a slight edge for Murray. I'm sorry, but where is this evidence of Del Potro's might on clay? It's just not there.
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
This is what I mean about underrating Murray on clay. Because he's noticeably worse than clay than on other surfaces, people tend to think that makes him **** at clay. He's really not!
By this logic i could play a small clay tournament every year, win it, get injured for the FO and then claim a 100% clay record every year.
I accept that they are probably close but until Murray actually plays the smaller tournaments we have to look at the facts which say that Del Potro has clay tournaments and Murray does not. That's ultimately Murray;s fault for making the decision to avoid clay tournaments.
Original post by Jack93o
two 5 sets against federer in RG counts for something surely
also taking a set of djokovic in 2011's RG, when he was in the middle of recovering from his wrist injury while djokovic was at his very peak
I've always rated del potro over murray, but on clay, the gap is even bigger
also taking a set of djokovic in 2011's RG, when he was in the middle of recovering from his wrist injury while djokovic was at his very peak
I've always rated del potro over murray, but on clay, the gap is even bigger
In terms of what i call natural talent (not skill) i think Del Potro is hugely talented and at 2009 US Open levels i think he's stupidly good but he's far too inconsistent and sometimes seems a bit lazy, additionally i think he has Murray's head problem.
I have little doubt that Del Potro will be world number 1 but he needs another step up before this will be achieved (with that said Wimbledon surely has to be on his radar as a potential GS win, it's the most open at the moment).
Original post by Rakas21
Yes. Yes, you could. That's why the career rankings have to be examined contextually rather than taken as "this is what goes".
I accept that they are probably close but until Murray actually plays the smaller tournaments we have to look at the facts which say that Del Potro has clay tournaments and Murray does not. That's ultimately Murray;s fault for making the decision to avoid clay tournaments.
Sure, but the question is not "Who has had more title success on clay?", it's "Who is the better player on clay?". Those are different questions with different answers, the answer to the first is Del Potro and the answer to the latter is Murray.
On a different note, Djokovic just confirmed he will be participating in Monte Carlo. So, top 4 seeds are:
Djokovic
Murray
Nadal
Berdych
It's not really much of a look-in for Djokovic. He has a final to defend and it's unlikely he'll go further given it's Monte Carlo. At least he has a chance to defend it, if he'd missed Monte Carlo through injury then Murray would have pulled ahead in the race.
It is an okay chance for Murray to start clawing ahead of Djokovic. He's defending 180 and Djokovic 600, and the difference between them in the race is 490, so for Murray, every little counts. On the other hand, the seeding is not as nice as it was if Djokovic pulled out, given before he might have faced Del Potro in the SF, whereas now he'll play Berdych or Nadal, both of whom will almost certainly beat him. Still, given his better seeding compared to last year, getting the SF seems reasonable.
For Nadal, it's vital he doesn't lose. If he has a poor clay season, he's in danger of falling as far as 7th seed by Wimbledon, which means he'll run into nasty people in the earlier rounds when the grass is most quick and he's at his most beatable. On the other hand, it's Monte Carlo, so he won't lose.
Moderate chance for Berdych here. He'll probably beat Murray on clay and he can really threaten Djokovic on clay too, just look at last year's Monte Carlo. Probably actually a better draw for Berdych than if Djokovic wasn't there, because then he could have drawn Nadal in the SF then. Could make the final, more likely just to defend his points from last year.
This is really Del Potro's big chance. He skipped Monte Carlo last year, and the gap between himself and Berdych is 365 points. If he gets F and Berdych gets SF, then he overtakes Berdych, if he gets SF and Berdych gets SF, he's only 5pts behind. If he gets SF and Berdych gets QF, he overtakes. Unlikely Berdych will do much worse than that, tbh. But yeah, great chance for Del Potro to try and get the 6th seed for RG.
Djokovic
Murray
Nadal
Berdych
It's not really much of a look-in for Djokovic. He has a final to defend and it's unlikely he'll go further given it's Monte Carlo. At least he has a chance to defend it, if he'd missed Monte Carlo through injury then Murray would have pulled ahead in the race.
It is an okay chance for Murray to start clawing ahead of Djokovic. He's defending 180 and Djokovic 600, and the difference between them in the race is 490, so for Murray, every little counts. On the other hand, the seeding is not as nice as it was if Djokovic pulled out, given before he might have faced Del Potro in the SF, whereas now he'll play Berdych or Nadal, both of whom will almost certainly beat him. Still, given his better seeding compared to last year, getting the SF seems reasonable.
For Nadal, it's vital he doesn't lose. If he has a poor clay season, he's in danger of falling as far as 7th seed by Wimbledon, which means he'll run into nasty people in the earlier rounds when the grass is most quick and he's at his most beatable. On the other hand, it's Monte Carlo, so he won't lose.
Moderate chance for Berdych here. He'll probably beat Murray on clay and he can really threaten Djokovic on clay too, just look at last year's Monte Carlo. Probably actually a better draw for Berdych than if Djokovic wasn't there, because then he could have drawn Nadal in the SF then. Could make the final, more likely just to defend his points from last year.
This is really Del Potro's big chance. He skipped Monte Carlo last year, and the gap between himself and Berdych is 365 points. If he gets F and Berdych gets SF, then he overtakes Berdych, if he gets SF and Berdych gets SF, he's only 5pts behind. If he gets SF and Berdych gets QF, he overtakes. Unlikely Berdych will do much worse than that, tbh. But yeah, great chance for Del Potro to try and get the 6th seed for RG.
(edited 11 years ago)
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