Yeah I've picked Berdych over Murray - judging by his listless performance at Monte Carlo I think he'll get through a few rounds but when he runs into a quality opponent he'll be knocked out, maybe even in straight sets again.
I've been very unimaginative and picked a Nadal-Djokovic final, this time with Rafa taking the trophy. By his standards that was his poorest showing at Monte Carlo for a long time (although Djokovic was phenomenal in the final) so I expect him to play better in Madrid, now that it's returned to proper clay. He overcame the disappointment of losing to Djoker in MC by winning his invitational in Barcelona and I can't see him being challenged by anyone before the final, apart from perhaps Federer, who seems to play well in Madrid.
Of the rising stars I've put Goffin down to win two rounds against Verdasco and Raonic, Dimitrov is unfortunate to run into Djoker in R2.