The Manchester United Thread X

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Did you seriously just use betting odds as substantiation for your view?

I mean... wow... that's the level of embarrassment where I just feel bad for you.

Yeah a multi billion pound industry which aims to price the probability of outcomes is not a good indicator, but some random Utd fans on the internet convincing themselves that despite all indications that a transfer will happen is a good indicator. :clap2:

If 9/4 is way off, then head down to William Hill in the morning mate with all the dosh you can collect. Youll make a killing. :rolleyes:

You dont need to look the odds up to know the probability of this transfer anyway.

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 7081

Tommyjw

Original post by TheInvincibles14

I'll give you the first two. Not the third though, not a better chance of winning trophies because Moyes is entirely an unknown quantity at a club like United. Could easily have a bad start (your early games are difficult) and the fans could pressure him, you don't know how he's going to react to that.

Did I read that right? What the hell does that mean :rofl:

You need to understand that if Arsenal get involved he'll choose us over you. 8 years he spent at the club, 8 years. He hasn't lost the emotional connection to the fans and the manager. Not to mention that if he joins and we get someone like Suarez that propels us above you into City/Chelsea territory.

You are delusional if you think Arsenal have any chance of being above United this season.

Emotional connections mean more in fans minds than they do players, this is shown over and over and over and over and yet people still try to be naive about it.

And if we get another 40 mil player you wont be in our territory. Or are we only allowing fictional transfers on one side now?

Reply 7082

rohitbd

Original post by TheInvincibles14

We definitely have a better chance of winning trophies than Arsenal, our first 11 and squad is much better than yours.

And no one apart from Cesc knows if he'll chose you or us if he wishes to leave, but to think that Wenger will sign both Cesc and Suarez in one summer :tongue:

Reply 7083

Tommyjw

Original post by Zürich

If 9/4 is way off, then head down to William Hill in the morning mate with all the dosh you can collect. Youll make a killing. :rolleyes:

You dont need to look the odds up to know the probability of this transfer anyway.

It is literally hilarious you think betting odds mean anything. Odds are defined by the market and by the bookies changing the odds to ensure profits, they very simply know absolutely **** all in terms of 'insider knowledge'.

Reply 7084

sevchenko

Original post by Tommyjw

Better players, better recent success, better chance of winning trophies, better platform from which to continue to build views of how good he is. Choosing United over Arsenal is quite simply the best and most likely outcome should it come down to that.

I can understand your logic behind listing those reasons and they are valid to a certain extent but I think you've underestimated Cesc's connection with Arsenal. Cesc has nothing to prove, his ability is renown, he's played at the highest level of world football and won everything except the CL. Yes, at Man U he has a greater chance of winning trophies but Cesc feels as if he owes Arsenal and AW something for making him the footballer he is today. Arsenal as a team are not that far away from major honours we're still a top team. I believe that the attraction of working with his mentor is greater than working with Moyes but lets wait and see what happens

Reply 7085

ZÃ¼rich

Original post by Tommyjw

Mate, I know a thing or two about betting markets to say the least(used to work on a trading desk that dealt with reasonably similar 'betting'), and I can promise you that the odds on a bet are a strong indicator of the probability of an event.

Bookies almost always try to run a balanced book and theyll shorten the odds in response to bets. So if the odds of Fabregas to Utd is 9/4, then that means that despite Utd fans betting on that event, the market believes its unlikely to say the least.

I'm not talking about insider knowledge, I'm talking about a reasonably unbias predictor of Cesc's next club.

Reply 7086

Musester

Original post by Zürich

Reasonably unbiased? Pahaha. You're getting skinned by the biggest ***** on TSR. Give up.

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 7087

Tommyjw

Original post by Zürich

Of course odds are unbiased, they are also completely irrelevant other than showing some correlation with what the media are saying. It's very embarrassing you chose to use them as substantiation for a view.

Reply 7088

ZÃ¼rich

Original post by Musester

Reasonably unbiased? Pahaha. You're getting skinned by the biggest ***** on TSR. Give up.

You're confused on the meaning of 'unbiased predictor'.

It depends on how deep the market is, in this case not very, but unless you have a reason to believe in insider information etc, the William Hill odds are a strong indicator on consensus. So if you make a bet on the temperature in London tomorrow at 3pm, the shortest odds will be at 30c. That doesnt mean that anybody knows what the temperature will be, but its telling you that if you believe it'll be 20c, that your reasoning is a wee bit off.

So if Utd fans reckon that Cesc will join Utd, then see that William Hill is offering them 9/4, then maybe they should should think about why the consensus is so far from their own opinion. It of course doesnt predict anything as such, but it puts a price on what the millions of punters with skin in the game think. The odds on him staying at Barca are 1/5 because if they werent, every punter with half a brain would lump on. Its gives a good probability.

Prediction markets have correctly predicted every single major political election in the last 5 years mate. Its a good predictor.

Easy peasy. Or maybe not...

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 7089

manchesterunited15

Original post by Musester

I know this comment is from a week ago, but don't tell me you are serious.

Going out in the knockout rounds on away goals to the eventual winner, or going out in the group stage and winning the second rate competition for teams that aren't good enough for the champions league. Yes, better.

Any team that gets out of the group stage of the CL does better than every team in the EL, because it's something that none of the teams in the EL can do.

Reply 7090

username917703

Original post by Zürich

Easy peasy. Or maybe not...

I see what you're saying tbh but there's no point getting into a debate, just return and laugh when Fabregas doesn't join. I see Musester is back, what were you saying about Tekkers again mate? :confused:

Original post by Musester

Benteke's off, Weiman won't be far behind.

Original post by Wilfred Little

Can't be arsed to get into a stupid debate like this but none of our star players have left and Tekkers will be here next season.

Both signed new contracts.

Zurich do you still work with bookies or with odds at all? If so, can we get some odds on Tommy to go to Manchester if Man Utd win a trophy and have a parade next season?

Reply 7091

username129099

Original post by Zürich

So if you make a bet on the temperature in London tomorrow at 3pm, the shortest odds will be at 30c. That doesnt mean that anybody knows what the temperature will be, but its telling you that if you believe it'll be 20c, that your reasoning is a wee bit off.

Running with this analogy, I think the reason why people are not dismissing this is. The current situation would as the bets suggest lead you to believe the that it is going to be 30 degree tomorrow. However a guy from the met office (someone in the business) walks in a bets £500 on it being 20, perhaps he's just having a punt. But if the same guy then walks in and bets a further £1000 then you would start to question whether this guys is just nuts or knows something the man on the street doesn't. So when someone follows his lead it doesn't mean they have better reasoning they might just be following someone who might have better reasoning.

Around the time the Thiago rumours came about most people in here, including myself, rubbished the Fabregas links as lazy journalism. But the fact United have actually submitted a bid, not once but twice. Would suggest either that are nuts or they know something the man on the street doesn't or at least feel they do, and knowing Arsenal various clauses most likely better than us, must feel they can still get somewhere in what on face value appears stupid.

I still can't see how it's ever going to happen, how Barca would ever let it happen but people who know significantly more than me or anyone on TSR, can seemingly see all these things. Either they have different information or are reading it differently from the rest of the world.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 7092

Kenan and Kel

Just when you think it can't get any worse, Musester joins the party :rofl:

Reply 7093

Manchester United

Wow! I come back to this thread and people are still replying to Zurich about a load of *******s. Fabregas will either join us or he wont. Moyes knows more than any of us. Lets just keep waiting for the Sky announcements and eventually we will find out.

In other news, here is a full video of Adnan Januzaj's performance today;

Edit: 1:21. If Adnan keeps doing stuff like this, we could mould him into a CM haha.

If I was Moyes, I'd put him on the team sheet for the Swansea game if he keeps performing like this.

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 7094

zKlown

Since when can Arsenal fans even banter with United fans these days?

I stopped taking them seriously after 8-2 let alone the fact they celebrated finishing 4th like it was a title win. Lol.

Also, why do they care so much about Fabregas? I could understand when it was RVP, they sold him directly to us... But Fabregas has been gone 2 seasons now!

Reply 7095

xDave-

Original post by zKlown

Also, why do they care so much about Fabregas? I could understand when it was RVP, they sold him directly to us... But Fabregas has been gone 2 seasons now!

It's not like they have much else to care about.

Though, last time I checked, they were signing Higuain, Rooney and Suarez :mmm:

Reply 7096

poiuytrewq54321

Original post by xDave-

It's not like they have much else to care about.

Though, last time I checked, they were signing Higuain, Rooney and Suarez :mmm:

Sky sports just posted this:

Reports coming out of Italy from the Corriere dello Sport claim Napoli's €35million (£30m) offer for Gonzalo Higuain has been accepted by Real Madrid. It means Arsenal look set to miss out on the Argentine striker.

I think they're gonna be really disappointed if thats the case. Then they've only got Suarez who would cost in the region of £40 odd million but if Real Madrid are selling Higuain then they'll do everything to get Suarez. And the question of Rooney, if they were to go for him he'll cost around £30-40 million IMO. And thats if United are willing to sell him.

I think if I were a Arsenal fan I would be really worried where a decent striker is actually gonna come from.

Reply 7097

DaveSmith99

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2013/jul/20/wayne-rooney-alex-ferguson-manchester-united

Just hand in an official transfer request instead of playing these media games you greedy ****

Reply 7098

ItTakes2meNu

Original post by Zürich

Bookies have Arsenal at 6/4 and Utd at 9/4. Needless to say Barca are at 1/5...

But obviously Utd fans know better.

Talking about delusional fans this is what Zurich was talking about on the Arsenal thread just yesterday.

‘There are no obvious targets in the EPL other than Suarez left and looking round Europe I can only think of Lewandowski as someone who we might have a shot at getting. Mayve Ibra as well if he's pissed off with the Cavani signing.’

:rofl3:

hahahahhahahahahhahahaha

Oh god! Let me show you the odds for Suarez, Lewandowski and Ibrahimovich according to SkyBet:

Lets start with Suarez:

Real Madrid 13/8
Arsenal 11/4
Bayern Munich 9/2

According to this we have better odds of getting Fabregas than you getting Suarez!

Lewandowski

Bayern Munich 5/2
Manchester United 5/1
Manchester City 7/1

LOL and you must be thinking wheres Arsenal well they’re 66/1 to sign him :rofl2:

. We have better odds of getting him than you have!

And finally Ibrahimovich

Real Madrid 11/4
Manchester City 4/1
Chelsea 7/1

And do you really want to know where Arsenal are? (50/1 if you really care). Even United are better with odds of 40/1.

And lets go further and look at the Fabregas odds today

Manchester United 11/8
Arsenal 3/1

So according to this you must agree that Fabregas is going to United then? No I thought so!

Odds don’t really tell you anything in my opinion one day it could tell you that they have suspended betting for that player to go to a certain team and the next thing you know they’re at a completely different team. All they care about is making money, give the odds, take the money and cash in.

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 7099

Tommyjw

No point putting so much emphasis on articles that involve a writer saying 'it is understood..'.

Likely just the writer trying to make something out of nothing with his own views tbh.