Predict the European Election Percentages

How do you think the vote will go in May EU elections?

UKIP- 36%
Labour- 27%
Tories- 18%
Greens- 8%
Lib Dems- 7%
Others- 4%

Con: 21%
Ukip: 21%
Lab: 19%
Green: 12%
Lib: 6%

Close but no massive victory for Ukip in my opinion (though they could come first), at the very least they won't get anywhere near 50%.

your guess only adds up to 79%

your guess only adds up to 79%

ukip 48
cons 29
lab 12
Liberal 2
other 1

around that, remember per cent spread randomly

ukip 48
cons 29
lab 12
Liberal 2
other 1

around that, remember per cent spread randomly

ukip 48
cons 29
lab 12
Liberal 2
other 1

around that, remember per cent spread randomly

God I can't wait for the euro election to laugh at some of these predictions...

Your suggesting a 30% swing. I find that very unlikely.

As much as I would love the UKIP to win with that much, it is highly unlikely.

There is a not of anti-EU feelings around the country. People often see the EU as a symbol of immigration (even that of immigrants out of the EU). The country has a widespread feeling of dislike to the EU due to immigration and interference in UK laws (even if the ECoHR is not directly related to the EU).

Quady, we shall see, but If my predictions are shown to be correct I hope you remember this thread and admit you were wrong.

Happy for you to pull up the thread, I'll probably forget either way.

I just don't see the 7% of people who voted green suddenly voting UKIP along 10% of people who voted LibDem, 4% of people who voted Labour with all SNP supporters and 80% of those who voted for other parties than those mentioned all moving to UKIP.

Oh and a small amount go to increasing the Tory vote too.

You think people care more about immigration and the process of law-making now (well by 2014) than in 2009? UKIP increased their share of the vote by 0.3% last time, you expect them to triple it ie a 200% rise. UKIP will get a rise more to do with the Eurozone meltdown and as a protest vote for sure, but a 200% rise... really?

Why would all green voters go to UKIP?
Why would all SNP voters go to UKIP?
Why would all BNP voters decide UKIP wasn't right wing enough in 2009 but suddenly is the party of choice?
Why would a quarter of Labour voters go to UKIP?
Why would 80% of Lib Dem voters go to UKIP?
Why would 80% of voters for other candidates go to UKIP?

Or do all the above vote Tory and all Tory voters move to UKIP - or how do you see the votes moving?

Well, I think that the Lib Dems are finished in every sense. I havenever liked them, but after the tuitions fee fiasco they have lost a lot ofvoters. I believe that UKIP will pick up votes from a broad spectrum and not particularlyagainst 1 party (with the possible exception of the Greens as I think peoplewho vote for them are going to stick with them no matter what).

People see UKIP during an EU election as a way of voting inour out of the EU, they see a UKIP vote as them saying to the government thatthey want out of the EU. This is why I have them so high. There are many peoplewho will not agree with their domestic policies (even hard-line left wingers)but still do not like the EU.

I'm just trying to get from the 16% they got last time to 48%

Lib Dems go from 12% to 2%, all the votes transferring to UKIP rather than Labour/Tory/ect? That gets you to 26%

Wheres the other 22%?

The remaining % represents the floaters who will almost pick at random and be dispensed evenlyish to the parties.

If UKIP get 22% from floaters and floaters are evenlyish dispensed then the Tories would get an additional 30%ish and Labour an additional 18%ish no...?

ie Tories 57%
UKIP 48%
Labour 30%

The maths doesn't work...