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Original post by little_tom
its both. odds change with information all the time

if madrid are 1.3 before a game and then get isnide knowledge that ronaldo isnt starting that would probably jump to 1.6, and so on. happens all the time
The other side of that equation is the number of people who will pop bets on the other side that needs to be balanced. You've got a load of people who will put bets on the opposite result or who will expect different odds if they are to place bets. If everyone via a crowd mentality starts betting the bookie needs to hedge that risk, so the odds will change. There is no new information just a belief in new information. It's more about the perception of what Ronaldo being out means in terms of betting patterns than the impact on the result. The inside line can be wrong but the balance of risk is what ensure you make money. Reality obviously features, but I say that is more on opening odds than fluctuation of odds, and statistical extremes of course.




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Original post by SHOO
**** this man. I will not watch any Chelsea games, even if they're against Arsenal if Fabregas goes to the bridge. How the **** do I even watch him in a blue shirt?


Well when we play at the emirates we can use our away kit which is yellow. That way you can at least watch him against us...

Anyway, no.4 is free since David Luiz left, I know he likes the no.4.
who cares if he goes to chelsea i personally will just be happy to have him back at home in london and playing in the premier league. we've got ozil and even if he's played like a £20 million player this season i'm sure he'll prove his doubters wrong and play like a £30 million player next season
Original post by jam278
Well when we play at the emirates we can use our away kit which is yellow. That way you can at least watch him against us...

Anyway, no.4 is free since David Luiz left, I know he likes the no.4.


Go away.


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Original post by SHOO
**** this man. I will not watch any Chelsea games, even if they're against Arsenal if Fabregas goes to the bridge. How the **** do I even watch him in a blue shirt?
It's been ****ing impossible watching him in a barca kit.

It'll ruin my summer


Why the **** you watching Chelsea games in the first place?! You would have to pay me to watch them ****ers!!

Blue is a horrible colour, it's depressing.


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peggles is extremely irrational and i'd advice everyone to ignore her.
Original post by baconbutty
peggles is extremely irrational and i'd advice everyone to ignore her.


Coming from you?! I can only assume the world is ending, got some front butty, especially considering you are on the ignore list of the majority of posters in here! :lol:

Lord knows how long you've been on mine with your foolishness.

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(edited 9 years ago)
Seriously though, baconbutty is really committed to trolling the AFC thread. Made it into an 12 month+ project :laugh:
The lols if Cesc joins Chelsea will be incredible
Original post by Peggles_*

Blue is a horrible colour, it's depressing.


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Good point that's a ****ing ugly kit.
Reply 6650
Original post by jam278
Well when we play at the emirates we can use our away kit which is yellow. That way you can at least watch him against us...

Anyway, no.4 is free since David Luiz left, I know he likes the no.4.


Get outa here man.

Number 4 :/

Honestly though, I'll be so pissed off if he goes Chelsea.

I really do love him :frown:
Tbf Fabregas going to Chelsea is like the woman who you used to be with and still love getting ****ed by a guy you despise.

I understand why this situation(if true) is peak.

Saying that, you guys blaming Fabregas is like blaming the woman, when really you should look as to why they left you in the first place? It's swings and roundabouts. The girl has the right to **** whoever she wants, same way I have a right to **** a girl my ex doesn't like.
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by jam278
Tbf Fabregas going to Chelsea is like the woman who you used to be with and still love getting ****ed by a guy you despise.

I understand why this situation(if true) is peak.


After 3 years you should've stopped loving her tbh
Original post by Fizzel
The other side of that equation is the number of people who will pop bets on the other side that needs to be balanced. You've got a load of people who will put bets on the opposite result or who will expect different odds if they are to place bets. If everyone via a crowd mentality starts betting the bookie needs to hedge that risk, so the odds will change. There is no new information just a belief in new information. It's more about the perception of what Ronaldo being out means in terms of betting patterns than the impact on the result. The inside line can be wrong but the balance of risk is what ensure you make money. Reality obviously features, but I say that is more on opening odds than fluctuation of odds, and statistical extremes of course.




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no I agree with what you're saying in terms of balancing risk, but I'm saying in this specific scenario where inside information is exclusive to the bookmakers (not unheard of), betting is then suspended, and then the odds are recreated again (almost as if they were new "opening" odds, rather than "manipulated" odds)

putting Arsenal at 5/1 comes with a lot of risk, lets be honest here. it would be like Ronaldo being 4/5 to City and 5/1 to United - I don't think those odds would ever be "manipulated", but recreated, unless you can give me examples of something similar happening here
Original post by Peggles_*
Coming from you?! I can only assume the world is ending, got some front butty, especially considering you are on the ignore list of the majority of posters in here! :lol:

Lord knows how long you've been on mine with your foolishness.

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People only put me on their ignore because I've got strong opinions that are more often than not right. Nobody in this thread can take any sort of criticism directed towards the club and if anyone dares to criticise they are bullied and threatened. I've been the victim of several bullies in here and I've noticed jam being bullied recently.

The main reason I'm viciously attacked in here is because I often point out the hypocrisy of you guys and your archaic, ape-like, mob mentality gets the better of you. Fortunately I'm a strong character though.
Reply 6655
Original post by Peggles_*
Why the **** you watching Chelsea games in the first place?! You would have to pay me to watch them ****ers!!

Blue is a horrible colour, it's depressing.


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Nah you know them Saturday afternoons where no other worthwhile game is on, when you have no revision to do and all your mates are busy somewhere, when your room doesn't need cleaning, when you've eaten, when you are broke as ****, when you have literally nothing else to do.. You put on sky sports and you see a madman managing a bunch of morons in blue? Them ones lol

Honestly peggles, I don't know how many times I've said, and god knows to how many people but it'll take me so long to get over it if he goes Chelsea.

I'll lose faith in footy.

You can't not sign Fabregas
Original post by jam278


Good point that's a ****ing ugly kit.


That is vile! Prefer the bruised banana shirt :coma:


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Original post by manchesterunited15
After 3 years you should've stopped loving her tbh

Yeah but if you were very affectionate with this girl and liked her to bits it can be hard to let go. The relationship was for 8 years or something like that btw.
Reply 6658
Original post by manchesterunited15
After 3 years you should've stopped loving her tbh


Easier said than done.

I love her :frown:
Original post by jam278
Tbf Fabregas going to Chelsea is like the woman who you used to be with and still love getting ****ed by a guy you despise.

I understand why this situation(if true) is peak.

Saying that, you guys blaming Fabregas is like blaming the woman, when really you should look as to why they left you in the first place? It's swings and roundabouts. The girl has the right to **** whoever she wants, same way I have a right to **** a girl my ex doesn't like.


What would the relationship equivalent of a buy back clause and first refusal be?!

I do think if we didn't have that clause in place, most wouldn't care where he ended up, but because we do and it's so publicised it almost seems unthinkable to pass up the chance to get him back.


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