The BdO will be decided by performances in October/November and the WC. Usually it's World Cup > CL, so it should weigh in the voting more. Perhaps the fact that it's "la décima" will make a difference but we'll see.
Doubt CR is the absolute favourite atm though, the media hyped Ramos/Di María and not him as the décima heroes and called them BdO contenders, while he got a lot of stick for his performance/celebration in the final. The injures could be a problem as well. His chances are better than Messi's right now,but it's relatively open I think. He's definitely going to win the UEFA award though, CL record and everything.
Anyway, Messi looked very sharp for Argentina yesterday. Playing better for Argentina than for Barça now, who would have thought that 3 years ago? Martino really didn't know how to use/capitalise on him properly. Hopefully Lucho does. If more goes through the midfield and not the wings again, he will naturally thrive again as well.