The Oxford TSA thread - 2015 applicants - 5th Nov 2014
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Original post by economicsrocks
Do you think strong GCSEs (12A*s and dist) and good A2 predicted grades (A*A*A*B) will make up for it? What about if I interviewed well (providing I get to that stage) thanks 
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I'm sure you'll be fine once you get to your interview stage. From what I read then on its based on interview, tsa and if really necessary, gcses.
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Original post by sellerofdreams
I'm sure you'll be fine once you get to your interview stage. From what I read then on its based on interview, tsa and if really necessary, gcses.
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Ah that makes things a little clearer, thanks
Ok, I'll just try my best on the TSA and hope it goes well Original post by economicsrocks
Ah that makes things a little clearer, thanks Ok, I'll just try my best on the TSA and hope it goes well
Ok, I'll just try my best on the TSA and hope it goes well On Merton's website it says they interview around 45% of candidates and in 2012-2013, 43% of candidates got over 61 in tsa. Read into that whatever you wish to.
http://www.merton.ox.ac.uk/undergraduate/admissions-feedback/ppe
Original post by Askaud
On Merton's website it says they interview around 45% of candidates and in 2012-2013, 43% of candidates got over 61 in tsa. Read into that whatever you wish to.
http://www.merton.ox.ac.uk/undergraduate/admissions-feedback/ppe
http://www.merton.ox.ac.uk/undergraduate/admissions-feedback/ppe
Thanks for the link!
Is it right to say it suggests they interview a few of those who score below 61? Also, does this vary between colleges?Original post by economicsrocks
Thanks for the link! Is it right to say it suggests they interview a few of those who score below 61? Also, does this vary between colleges?
Is it right to say it suggests they interview a few of those who score below 61? Also, does this vary between colleges?They might, it would help if you are from a state school which has horrible statistics. Just don't worry to much and try your best
Original post by economicsrocks
Thanks for the link! Is it right to say it suggests they interview a few of those who score below 61? Also, does this vary between colleges?
Is it right to say it suggests they interview a few of those who score below 61? Also, does this vary between colleges?Below 61 would make it necessary to have a perfect application, perfect marks and some outstanding achievements. The problem is that they simply cut out below a certain score and you'll only have a chance if they see something really special that gets them interested.
Can someone explain question 50 for 2010?
Original post by Teddysmith123
Can someone explain question 50 for 2010?
It is not too difficult actually. You simply have to look at the other dices provided an analyse which one is next to the other one etc. If you cannot imagine how the dice looks on the other side (imagine as in apply all the numbers accordingly to one dice), it might be useful to draw them.
Original post by Agap
Below 61 would make it necessary to have a perfect application, perfect marks and some outstanding achievements. The problem is that they simply cut out below a certain score and you'll only have a chance if they see something really special that gets them interested.
Bist du deutscher ? Was hattest du bist jetzt für Punkte im TSA und wofür bewirbst du dich ?
Original post by Agap
Below 61 would make it necessary to have a perfect application, perfect marks and some outstanding achievements. The problem is that they simply cut out below a certain score and you'll only have a chance if they see something really special that gets them interested.
Ok, I see what you mean. I think I'm likely to score above 61, but not that likely to score above 65. Thanks for your help
Original post by ernstol
They might, it would help if you are from a state school which has horrible statistics. Just don't worry to much and try your best
Ok thanks, I'll just hope it all goes well on the day! Good luck if you're sitting the TSA too
Original post by ventus
21) D says that the argument fails to state that there are no harms form the 'other insects' to the crops. This strengthens the argument because it means that the 'other insects' only eat the crop-eating insects and don't eat the crops themselves. Therefore, this cannot be a flaw. B supports the argument and C is a harm, but isn't necessarily relevant to the conclusion and E says it lacks an explanation, but in these critical thinking questions, you sort of ignore lack of explanation, instead just assume everything that is written is true and point out the flaw in reasoning rather than attacking their information. A shows a genuine flaw because the passage only says 'other insects' also kill these insects. It gives no description of scale or effectiveness and so there is an obvious problem in the argument here in that pesticides are probably used because these other insects are not as effective, therefore we shouldn't stop using them (the opposite of the conclusion).
26) To be honest I didn't look at how exactly they made the shape, I just looked at A and knew that they flipped onto each other perfectly and so couldn't make another shape and had a quick look at the others and they all looked possible.
EDIT: I just looked at it and it makes an octagon pretty clearly, if you got a 12-sided shape I think you may have just drawn the outside of the shape including those corners, but when they overlap, those corners turn into flats because the shape is flat there - hard to explain - but just because one side is cut out, doesn't mean you can just add the shapes.
30) She applies it twice once with 1:15 = 12x1/16 and once with 1:24=12x1/25
26) To be honest I didn't look at how exactly they made the shape, I just looked at A and knew that they flipped onto each other perfectly and so couldn't make another shape and had a quick look at the others and they all looked possible.
EDIT: I just looked at it and it makes an octagon pretty clearly, if you got a 12-sided shape I think you may have just drawn the outside of the shape including those corners, but when they overlap, those corners turn into flats because the shape is flat there - hard to explain - but just because one side is cut out, doesn't mean you can just add the shapes.
30) She applies it twice once with 1:15 = 12x1/16 and once with 1:24=12x1/25
Thank you! Explained it perfectly.
Original post by economicsrocks
Ok thanks, I'll just hope it all goes well on the day! Good luck if you're sitting the TSA too
cheers and you
. I am hoping to score around 75 
Original post by samthemiller
just done an essay, don't hate, did it in 25 minutes
some constructive feedback would be grand
I'll just paste it here:
Question was from 2009 "What changes in society will follow from increased life expectancy?"
some constructive feedback would be grand
I'll just paste it here:
Question was from 2009 "What changes in society will follow from increased life expectancy?"
Spoiler
Very nice essay! Just got a couple of extra ideas from reading yours, but of course it would be completely unrealistic to fit all this stuff in given the time constraint.
- Before stating that the total population would increase, I'd state that this is based on the assumption that fertility rates are held constant. In many societies, such as Germany and Japan, an ageing population has coincided with a fall in fertility rates which has meant large population growth has not occurred.
- Just a structural point for the first paragraph, but I'd make it clear that actual growth would likely increase from an increasing elderly population because of the effect on aggregate demand, but the rate of potential growth may not increase if the labour supply does not increase. Then you can evaluate that by bringing in retirement age, immigration etc.
- Paragraph 2; do the elderly really have a stronger present-bias than other age groups? Yes, the long term is less likely to affect them, but many have children and grandchildren...
- Nice point of scarcity and pressure on resources. Could maybe evaluate by bringing in the rate of technological change - for example, growing population hasn't put massive pressure on food prices because of large gains in agricultural productivity over the past century.
- I think the point on inequality you mentioned at the end of the resources paragraph could become a completely separate point in itself. With an elderly population whose only source of income will be from state transfer payments and returns on capital ownership, will capital become more important? Could link to growing capital/income ratios, and maybe Piketty's 'Capital'.
- Conclusion is interesting on leisure time; would there be less emphasis on output per capita if there was a large increase in the labour supply? We've seen an solid increase in the supply of labour over the past generation, however working hours have been rising nonetheless which has reversed the historical trend of falling working hours. Is this going to change?
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by ernstol
cheers and you . I am hoping to score around 75
. I am hoping to score around 75 Thanks
Wow!Just done a 'Think You Can Think' paper, anyone else tried the first one? I found it exponentially harder than the past papers, and I only got 40/50, having been averaging 47-49 on past papers. Makes me slightly worried, although the book probably prepares you for the worst.
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Is anyone on here willing to offer some constructive criticism on my essay? It's one of my first, so I'm not quite sure if what I'm doing is along the right lines or not! Any pointers on grammar/writing style/structure would also be appreciated
"Could a robot ever think like a human?" - TSA 2012
One could argue that the irrationality which riddles the human thought process is a characteristic unique to human thought. However, there have been attempts at modelling this human irrationality within computer programmes, in order to advance developments in behavioural game theory. The large extent to which the computers emulate this irrationality accurately could be used to argue that robots too can think irrationally, just like humans. There is a flaw in this argument. The modelling of this irrationality in computer programmes is entirely dependant on correction factors: numbers that indicate how often the computer should deviate from the rational 'rules' which have been laid out for it. These correction factors do not convincingly create irrationality; even though they may emulate results similar to those obtained from irrational human thought, the fact that these factors themselves set up rules for how the computer is meant to think entirely contradicts the concept of irrationality.
Furthermore, the human thought process is often influenced by emotions. Therefore, to question whether a robot could ever think like a human is to question whether a robot could ever experience emotion. Following substantial research within psychology into emotion, it has been concluded that emotion is a result of a combination of social constructs and biological changes. Since a robot could never experience either of these, one could conclude that a robot can never experience emotion and consequently never think like a human.
However, some may argue that it is in fact impossible to pinpoint a specific way in which all human beings think. Therefore, the more useful questions to ask when considering whether a robot could every think like a human are those which discuss whether a robot could ever emulate the power of the human brain. Computers have already been developed to emulate the brain power of several brain cells, and due to the large technological advances we are sure to make in the future, it could be extrapolated that one day we will be able to create a computer that is as powerful as a human brain. Therefore, one day robots will be able to think 'like a human' as they will possess control over similar levels of 'brain power' which they can use in any way they choose to create thought, just like a human being does presently.
Thus it could be possible for a robot to think like a human, depending on how we approach the definition of human thought. If our definition relies wholly on the brain power that generates thought, then it is possible that one day a robot will possess the same intellectual capacity as a human and so have access to just as many different possible methods of thought as a human. However, if we define human thought through factors that influence it, such as irrationality and emotion, then we quickly come to the conclusion that robots will never be able to think as humans do, as they cannot be influenced by the same defining factors.
"Could a robot ever think like a human?" - TSA 2012
One could argue that the irrationality which riddles the human thought process is a characteristic unique to human thought. However, there have been attempts at modelling this human irrationality within computer programmes, in order to advance developments in behavioural game theory. The large extent to which the computers emulate this irrationality accurately could be used to argue that robots too can think irrationally, just like humans. There is a flaw in this argument. The modelling of this irrationality in computer programmes is entirely dependant on correction factors: numbers that indicate how often the computer should deviate from the rational 'rules' which have been laid out for it. These correction factors do not convincingly create irrationality; even though they may emulate results similar to those obtained from irrational human thought, the fact that these factors themselves set up rules for how the computer is meant to think entirely contradicts the concept of irrationality.
Furthermore, the human thought process is often influenced by emotions. Therefore, to question whether a robot could ever think like a human is to question whether a robot could ever experience emotion. Following substantial research within psychology into emotion, it has been concluded that emotion is a result of a combination of social constructs and biological changes. Since a robot could never experience either of these, one could conclude that a robot can never experience emotion and consequently never think like a human.
However, some may argue that it is in fact impossible to pinpoint a specific way in which all human beings think. Therefore, the more useful questions to ask when considering whether a robot could every think like a human are those which discuss whether a robot could ever emulate the power of the human brain. Computers have already been developed to emulate the brain power of several brain cells, and due to the large technological advances we are sure to make in the future, it could be extrapolated that one day we will be able to create a computer that is as powerful as a human brain. Therefore, one day robots will be able to think 'like a human' as they will possess control over similar levels of 'brain power' which they can use in any way they choose to create thought, just like a human being does presently.
Thus it could be possible for a robot to think like a human, depending on how we approach the definition of human thought. If our definition relies wholly on the brain power that generates thought, then it is possible that one day a robot will possess the same intellectual capacity as a human and so have access to just as many different possible methods of thought as a human. However, if we define human thought through factors that influence it, such as irrationality and emotion, then we quickly come to the conclusion that robots will never be able to think as humans do, as they cannot be influenced by the same defining factors.
Original post by Joe7
Very nice essay! Just got a couple of extra ideas from reading yours, but of course it would be completely unrealistic to fit all this stuff in given the time constraint.
- Before stating that the total population would increase, I'd state that this is based on the assumption that fertility rates are held constant. In many societies, such as Germany and Japan, an ageing population has coincided with a fall in fertility rates which has meant large population growth has not occurred.
- Just a structural point for the first paragraph, but I'd make it clear that actual growth would likely increase from an increasing elderly population because of the effect on aggregate demand, but the rate of potential growth may not increase if the labour supply does not increase. Then you can evaluate that by bringing in retirement age, immigration etc.
- Paragraph 2; do the elderly really have a stronger present-bias than other age groups? Yes, the long term is less likely to affect them, but many have children and grandchildren...
- Nice point of scarcity and pressure on resources. Could maybe evaluate by bringing in the rate of technological change - for example, growing population hasn't put massive pressure on food prices because of large gains in agricultural productivity over the past century.
- I think the point on inequality you mentioned at the end of the resources paragraph could become a completely separate point in itself. With an elderly population whose only source of income will be from state transfer payments and returns on capital ownership, will capital become more important? Could link to growing capital/income ratios, and maybe Piketty's 'Capital'.
- Conclusion is interesting on leisure time; would there be less emphasis on output per capita if there was a large increase in the labour supply? We've seen an solid increase in the supply of labour over the past generation, however working hours have been rising nonetheless which has reversed the historical trend of falling working hours. Is this going to change?
- Before stating that the total population would increase, I'd state that this is based on the assumption that fertility rates are held constant. In many societies, such as Germany and Japan, an ageing population has coincided with a fall in fertility rates which has meant large population growth has not occurred.
- Just a structural point for the first paragraph, but I'd make it clear that actual growth would likely increase from an increasing elderly population because of the effect on aggregate demand, but the rate of potential growth may not increase if the labour supply does not increase. Then you can evaluate that by bringing in retirement age, immigration etc.
- Paragraph 2; do the elderly really have a stronger present-bias than other age groups? Yes, the long term is less likely to affect them, but many have children and grandchildren...
- Nice point of scarcity and pressure on resources. Could maybe evaluate by bringing in the rate of technological change - for example, growing population hasn't put massive pressure on food prices because of large gains in agricultural productivity over the past century.
- I think the point on inequality you mentioned at the end of the resources paragraph could become a completely separate point in itself. With an elderly population whose only source of income will be from state transfer payments and returns on capital ownership, will capital become more important? Could link to growing capital/income ratios, and maybe Piketty's 'Capital'.
- Conclusion is interesting on leisure time; would there be less emphasis on output per capita if there was a large increase in the labour supply? We've seen an solid increase in the supply of labour over the past generation, however working hours have been rising nonetheless which has reversed the historical trend of falling working hours. Is this going to change?
All really useful points, pretty tricky to fit stuff in in the time limit
Thanks for the feedback, useful stuff
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