Who will be more influential in the 21st Century?

Poll

Who will be most influential in this century? What will the 22nd century look like?

I saw this in the international forum and feel we need one here. I'm being quite specific on the question too. I am not asking about a general country who will step forward or even the side of the world to hold most power, but who will have the most overall influence.

I believe the East is going to continue forcing the West to change, but the West will remain dominant.

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 1

Birchington

20

Polls like this are a good way to draw in people from outside the MUN, with a little publicity.

Hopefully the mods can remove the restrictions on posting here for non-members.

Original post by Nigel Farage MEP

I saw this in the international forum and feel we need one here. I'm being quite specific on the question too. I am not asking about a general country who will step forward or even the side of the world to hold most power, but who will have the most overall influence.

I believe the East is going to continue forcing the West to change, but the West will remain dominant.

I believe by the end of the century, the West will still be dominant, but less so.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 3

Spandy

3

[OOC] China is already the largest economy in the world by PPP measure, my personal calculations suggest that India, currently the 3rd largest, should overtake USA as the second largest by 2038. Note that several similar polls exist in the 'international' forum. Rgds...

Reply 4

username1524603

OP

14

Original post by Spandy

[OOC] China is already the largest economy in the world by PPP measure, my personal calculations suggest that India, currently the 3rd largest, should overtake USA as the second largest by 2038. Note that several similar polls exist in the 'international' forum. Rgds...

I question Spandy's thinking. China has denied it is the largest economy by PPP, with the organisation director stating PPP methodology has underestimated actual price levels in China and over-estimated China's GDP. Considering no official data from countries has been released it is very difficult to measure PPP accurately, then there's the debate to be had over its use.

Reply 5

junior.doctor

18

I think that war is most likely as the East becomes more influential and the West loses its dominance. I think the West will still want to dominate / dictate its policies and the East will become more able to assert its own ideas, ending in war through the struggle for dominance.

Reply 6

Spandy

3

Original post by Nigel Farage MEP

I question Spandy's thinking. China has denied it is the largest economy by PPP, with the organisation director stating PPP methodology has underestimated actual price levels in China and over-estimated China's GDP. Considering no official data from countries has been released it is very difficult to measure PPP accurately, then there's the debate to be had over its use.

I believe that the Chinese are lying in a laughable attempt to make the world underestimate it.

Reply 7

Spandy

3

By 2060, the combined GDP of China (27.8%) and India (18.2%) will be larger than that of the OECD – and the total output of China, India and the rest of the developing world (57.7%) will be greater than that of developed OECD and non-OECD countries (42.3%). http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/datablog/2012/nov/09/developing-economies-overtake-west-2050-oecd-forecasts

Reply 8

McRite

17

China already influences most of Africa economically and sometimes politically, that's bound to grow as they treat Africans more as equals compared to the West. Russia seems to have an influence in some of the Middle East. I think there will come a time when conflict countries will prefer Putin and Xi Jinping at the negotiating table rather than Barrack Obama and Cameron.

Reply 9

Iggy Azalea

14

It's ultimately unknown but I do believe after an Eastern boom, things will settle back to the West.

China, South Korea, India, Russia and Malaysia are growing and their populations easily dominate the world. However, Japan is set to quieten down and this could slow this boom, and North Korea could still cause some significant disruption in Asia.

Meanwhile the EU and North America are not as prosperous as Asia, and are starting to lose influence worldwide.

But we are forgetting several important future players. Nations in Central and Southern America could rival Asia in the long term, perhaps exceed it as their populations grow. With close ties to Europe and the US, they could bring influence back to the West, no matter how big China or India gets.

The advantage the West has over the East, is that none of the Eastern countries get on as well as Western nations do. China is starting to get sick of Russia's games and it still cannot settle border issues with India. Japan's presence in Asia, in particular its alliance with the US and its icy relations with China and Russia. So instead of competing as a unit (like the EU or the Americas), they are competing as individual nations.

Reply 10

Spandy

3

Original post by McRite

China already influences most of Africa economically and sometimes politically, that's bound to grow as they treat Africans more as equals compared to the West.

I do not agree.Business links between China and Africa may be cordial and efficient, but it does not mean that friendship and mutual liking necessarily follow in their wake.
There have been anti-Chinese sentiments in Zambia over the treatment of African workers in Chinese-run mines and rising hostility to Chinese immigrants in other African states. The relationships between Africans and Chinese, either in Africa or China, are full of conflicts and subtleties. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-20693119

Reply 11

McRite

17

Original post by Spandy

I do not agree.Business links between China and Africa may be cordial and efficient, but it does not mean that friendship and mutual liking necessarily follow in their wake.
There have been anti-Chinese sentiments in Zambia over the treatment of African workers in Chinese-run mines and rising hostility to Chinese immigrants in other African states. The relationships between Africans and Chinese, either in Africa or China, are full of conflicts and subtleties. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-20693119

I know there is anti Chinese feelings in Africa, my government refuses to let them tender for future government projects, because of some points you raised, however, my point was that Africa gets a slightly better deal with the Chinese compared to the West. The South African government is an example of Chinese influence.

http://www.supplymanagement.com/news/2012/sa-unions-urge-olympic-kit-deal-to-be-scrapped

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/04/dalai-lama-denied-south-africa-visa-nobel-summit

Reply 12

Fernand126

11

Austria believes the current world scenario is too consolidated for a peaceful switch of powers. Worst case scenario, the world polarises itself again into World War III, but that simply would not be sustainable for the East, I believe. They rely heavily on the west (although one could argue the other way around is also correct, and maybe even more true).

Reply 13

william walker

3

We are living through the Pax Americana, it will last as the British Pax did for about 70-100 years. China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Germany will all fall away as the century moves on. The main nations which will improve their position are Kenya, Argentina, Mexico, Britain, Poland, Turkey and Japan.

Who will be more influential in the 21st Century?

Who will be most influential in this century? What will the 22nd century look like?

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