Congratulations to the Greek left! The movement against austerity....

Btw tonight is the deadline for the ''reforms'' Tsipras will have to present to the Eurogroup.Let's hope he does indeed scrap austerity all together.

Reply 182

So the Greek media are leaking that the Thessaloniki programme (the one that got SYRIZA elected) has been almost fully integrated in the list of reforms that SYRIZA sent to the E.U a few hours ago.This includes major social issues such as battling the humanitarian crisis , free electricity for 300.000 households in Greece, universal healthcare (access to healthcare-medicine) for all free of charge , decrease of VAT for tourism industry, free transport for unemployed people (roughly 1.5 million people in Greece),no pension or salary cuts , minimum wage going up gradually to 751 Euros per month (this will be higher than Spain/Portugal btw), a plan of up to 100 instalments for people owing tax , full protection against home auctions from the banks (in case there is only one home per family), major pro-consumer improvements in what we call the ''red'' loans whereby courts or independent authorities will be required by law to intervene against arbitrary moves from the banks.

Now at the same time what is striking is that we get leaks the past few minutes from Brussels and Germany that this list is actually acceptable and will be approved...This has shocked the conservatives here in Greece.There is a lot of talk that Tsipras has promised some very aggressive politics against corruption and smuggling.Some media report that it will be a swiping reform on this front and that for whatever reason the E.U has decided to trust Tsipras with this...But trust me when I say that the conservative party of ND and the former government coalition partner PASOK are starting to freak out with the prospect that this list will be indeed accepted by the EU.

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 183

Rakas21

21

Original post by Psych34

So the Greek media are leaking that the Thessaloniki programme (the one that got SYRIZA elected) has been almost fully integrated in the list of reforms that SYRIZA sent to the E.U a few hours ago.This includes major social issues such as battling the humanitarian crisis , free electricity for 300.000 households in Greece, universal healthcare (access to healthcare-medicine) for all free of charge , decrease of VAT for tourism industry, free transport for unemployed people (roughly 1.5 million people in Greece),no pension or salary cuts , minimum wage going up gradually to 751 Euros per month (this will be higher than Spain/Portugal btw), a plan of up to 100 instalments for people owing tax , full protection against home auctions from the banks (in case there is only one home per family), major pro-consumer improvements in what we call the ''red'' loans whereby courts or independent authorities will be required by law to intervene against arbitrary moves from the banks.

Now at the same time what is striking is that we get leaks the past few minutes from Brussels and Germany that this list is actually acceptable and will be approved...This has shocked the conservatives here in Greece.There is a lot of talk that Tsipras has promised some very aggressive politics against corruption and smuggling.Some media report that it will be a swiping reform on this front and that for whatever reason the E.U has decided to trust Tsipras with this...But trust me when I say that the conservative party of ND and the former government coalition partner PASOK are starting to freak out with the prospect that this list will be indeed accepted by the EU.

How in the heck can the EU accept free electricity and transport, you'd have to massively raise taxes or cut elsewhere to pay for it. Protection against auction for homes also tells people they can default so that's a really bad policy.

The VAT, minimum wage and healthcare Syriza can legally do anyway.

Reply 184

OP

Original post by Psych34

So the Greek media are leaking that the Thessaloniki programme (the one that got SYRIZA elected) has been almost fully integrated in the list of reforms that SYRIZA sent to the E.U a few hours ago.This includes major social issues such as battling the humanitarian crisis , free electricity for 300.000 households in Greece, universal healthcare (access to healthcare-medicine) for all free of charge , decrease of VAT for tourism industry, free transport for unemployed people (roughly 1.5 million people in Greece),no pension or salary cuts , minimum wage going up gradually to 751 Euros per month (this will be higher than Spain/Portugal btw), a plan of up to 100 instalments for people owing tax , full protection against home auctions from the banks (in case there is only one home per family), major pro-consumer improvements in what we call the ''red'' loans whereby courts or independent authorities will be required by law to intervene against arbitrary moves from the banks.

Now at the same time what is striking is that we get leaks the past few minutes from Brussels and Germany that this list is actually acceptable and will be approved...This has shocked the conservatives here in Greece.There is a lot of talk that Tsipras has promised some very aggressive politics against corruption and smuggling.Some media report that it will be a swiping reform on this front and that for whatever reason the E.U has decided to trust Tsipras with this...But trust me when I say that the conservative party of ND and the former government coalition partner PASOK are starting to freak out with the prospect that this list will be indeed accepted by the EU.

Very interesting report. :smile:

I wonder if the VAT thing is a good idea - maybe Greece should really be trying to up its game on tourism and earn more cash from it, but I suppose in the short term, increased tourist revenues from sheer volume are a help.

I can't see Tsipras succeeding where all others have failed and mobilising a genuine tax regime for the wealthy in Greece - in any event, much of it is offshored now anyway? I wish him well with it, but time will tell if the tax base will stay as bad as it has been for so long.

The home auction protection thing has also been much needed in Spain and other countries plagued by ninja loaning and mortgage madness, but the policy should be limited to poorer families and one home, or else it makes the market sclerotic and prevents well off people from settling debts in an easy way.

Sadly, I doubt any of this will really help with Greece's problems, which will remain, as they are attempting to subsist within a currency that is wildly overvalued compared to their economic potential. The only way forward for them is either Grexit (unacceptable though that is to the Greeks given the history) or total economic collapse, since the EU will, one way or another, eventually reach a limit, as will the IMF.

Reply 185

Original post by Rakas21

How in the heck can the EU accept

Well it appears it has..This is what the international press is reporting right now based on leaks from Brussels and Germany.Difference is that they focus on the reforms SYRIZA promised on the corruption and smuggling front.

Let's wait until the night but people in Greece have already started speaking of a SYRIZA victory.The Greek media are all over it as we speak.

Reply 186

Yep here we go from Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0LR0ZX20150224

[h="1"]Greece sends comprehensive reform plan to lenders: EU source[/h]

Reply 187

OP

Original post by Psych34

Well it appears it has..This is what the international press is reporting right now based on leaks from Brussels and Germany.Difference is that they focus on the reforms SYRIZA promised on the corruption and smuggling front.

Let's wait until the night but people in Greece have already started speaking of a SYRIZA victory.The Greek media are all over it as we speak.

We should be cautious though, because all it has achieved is the 4-month temporary reprieve. The problem will return in the summer with more intensity.

I'm sure Syriza will want to portray it as a victory but what's needed is a more long-lasting solution.

Reply 188

Quady

Original post by Psych34

Yep here we go from Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0LR0ZX20150224

[h="1"]Greece sends comprehensive reform plan to lenders: EU source[/h]

The commission gave a warm reception to the plan for a six month loan the thumbs up, then it got knocked back....

Much more interested in what the German Govt says tbh and the IMF.

Reply 189

Original post by Fullofsurprises

We should be cautious though, because all it has achieved is the 4-month temporary reprieve. The problem will return in the summer with more intensity.

I'm sure Syriza will want to portray it as a victory but what's needed is a more long-lasting solution.

Obviously but if Syriza does well during this 4 month period then around summer we can expect more leeway for Greece.Let's not kid ourselves , ultimately the Greek debt will be forgiven since it is not sustainable.The only thing we dont know is when this will happen exactly.My feeling is that once Podemos take power in Spain we ll start talking about meaningful policies around the Eurozone debt.

Reply 190

OP

Original post by Psych34

Obviously but if Syriza does well during this 4 month period then around summer we can expect more leeway for Greece.Let's not kid ourselves ultimately the Greek debt will be forgiven since it is not sustainable.The only thing we dont know is when this happen exactly.My feeling is that once Podemos take power in Spain we ll start talking about meaningful policies around the Eurozone debt.

I doubt that it can easily be forgiven as long as Germany dominates the EU and is the main paymaster and the IMF is not well known for abandoning harsh policies when the going gets tough.

The South American model, where they basically kicked the IMF out, is the exemplar, but the European equivalent of that would be to kick the EU out, which means an exit.

I think you (and possibly other Greeks) are still over optimistic about the realistic prospects for major debt alleviation whilst staying within the EU and more importantly the Euro. Germany is simply not going to permit a major debt cancellation.

I also think that the Eurocracy are deaf, dumb and blind to the negative impact of the Eurozone on Southern Europe and are now so far committed politically to the maintenance of the Euro at all costs that it is sadly much more likely to end disastrously than in a planned way.

Reply 191

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Germany is simply not going to permit a major debt cancellation.

Well if this escalates at a purely political level (this will happen easier with Podemos in Spain) then Germany will be in a difficult position.I am not saying it will happen now but it cant be more than a few years down the road.I think in terms of real politics the German model of austerity has already started to show cracks.It will simply fail as we progress.

Reply 192

Also let me make a correction on VAT.I had misread it.It appears that the Greek list mentions no increase of VAT in the tourism industry.In other words it stays as is.Last government said it would increase it.

Reply 193

OP

Original post by Psych34

Well if this escalates at a purely political level (this will happen easier with Podemos in Spain) then Germany will be in a difficult position.I am not saying it will happen now but it cant be more than a few years down the road.I think in terms of real politics the German model of austerity has already started to show cracks.It will simply fail as we progress.

The big battle the Germans lost was allowing the ECB to do QE. That may help Southern Europe at the expense (long term) of some German wealth, but the extent to which Germany will now be prepared to surrender on any other fronts is really the question.

I think they probably hope against hope that there will be sufficient economic growth to ease the crisis and therefore ameliorate some of the demands for debt easing. Maybe that will happen to some extent, but the underlying problems for Greece will still be there, as they will for Ireland, Portugal and Spain (and probably Italy) even if they do manage to get good growth.

Reply 194

Rakas21

21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

The big battle the Germans lost was allowing the ECB to do QE. That may help Southern Europe at the expense (long term) of some German wealth, but the extent to which Germany will now be prepared to surrender on any other fronts is really the question.

I think they probably hope against hope that there will be sufficient economic growth to ease the crisis and therefore ameliorate some of the demands for debt easing. Maybe that will happen to some extent, but the underlying problems for Greece will still be there, as they will for Ireland, Portugal and Spain (and probably Italy) even if they do manage to get good growth.

On the Irish point it's worth noting that bar 2013 it's actually grown faster than the UK each year from 2011 onward. Ireland's problem was that it's tax system was linked to it's housing boom, it's wider economy is actually pretty competitive. Unemployment has also fallen swiftly.

Spain seems to be improving somewhat as exporters have flocked there.

Portugal and Italy are wastes of space as things stand.

Reply 195

Observatory

Original post by Rakas21

On the Irish point it's worth noting that bar 2013 it's actually grown faster than the UK each year from 2011 onward. Ireland's problem was that it's tax system was linked to it's housing boom, it's wider economy is actually pretty competitive. Unemployment has also fallen swiftly.

Spain seems to be improving somewhat as exporters have flocked there.

Portugal and Italy are wastes of space as things stand.

Ireland still had much higher unemployment than the UK (about double), probably again due to the Euro. It wasn't nearly as badly off as the rest of the PIIGS because it's also a very free market, non-corrupt, transparent country that was about the richest in Europe prior to the crisis; it could afford to endure unnecessary unemployment and simply pay the welfare bill required out of tax revenue. Ireland probably also had a more similar economy to Central Europe than Portugal or Greece did, reducing the disemployment effect.

Not an ideal outcome but less disastrous.

Fullofsurprises

I also think that the Eurocracy are deaf, dumb and blind to the negative impact of the Eurozone on Southern Europe and are now so far committed politically to the maintenance of the Euro at all costs that it is sadly much more likely to end disastrously than in a planned way.

That's true, but the Greek elite (including Syriza) is also deaf, blind and dumb to the problems of the Euro and committed to maintaining it at all costs. The British government is currently taking a Grexit more seriously than the Greek government. All along I've thought it was much more likely that the Eurozone states would endure economic devastation than row back their quasi-religious belief int he Euro and nothing so far has shaken that belief. It's possible that Greece and Spain will leave, but they will be forced out by circumstance they couldn't predict or control; they won't go willingly.

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 196

Observatory

Original post by Psych34

Obviously but if Syriza does well during this 4 month period then around summer we can expect more leeway for Greece.Let's not kid ourselves , ultimately the Greek debt will be forgiven since it is not sustainable.The only thing we dont know is when this will happen exactly.My feeling is that once Podemos take power in Spain we ll start talking about meaningful policies around the Eurozone debt.

I think it's unlikely that SYRIZA will survive. The reforms they want to implement mostly gum up the Greek market even further and will increase unemployment further. Raising welfare spending in the face of rising unemployment while tax revenues remain stagnant and the economy shrinks is going to be impossible without more subsidised loans from the EU.

At some point the current strategy of demanding that Central Europe pays to maintain the illusion of the inevitability of the Euro is going to break down and when the Central Europeans invite Spain and Greece to leave, I think they will stay because Greece and Spain basically prefer being Euro members to having acceptable levels of unemployment or sound finances.

It's possible that SYRIZA will be replaced by even more hardline leftist party that will double down on the mistakes; that's basically what SYRIZA itself is, so the Greeks have form here. But I suspect a more likely outcome is that Greece ends up being governed by the EU Commission with the identity of the particular intermediaries being relatively unimportant. That may have already happened if the concessions SYRIZA made to the Troika in the recent negotiations are more significant than you are portraying them.

Reply 197

ChaoticButterfly

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Ha, that's a great cartoon. :smile:

I found another one :tongue:

Reply 198

ChaoticButterfly

I'm just gonna post other poeples' pics and memes.

Reply 199

Quady