It wont be Defences, that's a given, so that should help quite a bit in itself.
Comparing which is most likely to come up between Non fatals and Murder is a tricky one because there's two sides of the argument really. Yeah sure, Murder hadsn't came up in years, but it hardly ever comes up anyway. Non fatals comes up every other paper so far with fail, meaning its likely this next paper is going to be non fatals imo