American Football Talk II

I get most of my NFL gossip from /r/nfl on reddit. They have some random predictions which are quite well written compared to other media, and they post all the relevant news on there too obviously. I like SBNation but I don't usually subscribe to it unless I get linked to it. The Chargers one seems pretty good.

For stats I like Advanced NFL Analytics and Rotoviz (which is a pay site but costs like 5 bucks for the off season). For analysis I like mattwaldmanrsp, Ben Muth on Football Outsiders, Matt Bowen on Bleacher Report, smartfootball and probably some others. I also listen to the Ross Tucker Football Podcast. Between all that I never bother clicking on nfl.com unless I feel like deliberately disappointing myself.

Reply 1002

I do like SB Nation stuff. Sometimes it's fun to go to the dark side and see what's going on at PatsPulpit.com. Most of analysis is from Mile High Report. I do like to be aware of what's going on in the division. There's also the stuff at Scout.com , where it's a bit more analytical. I love the contract breakdowns at OverTheCap.com .

@SmashConcept , thanks for the link to Football Outsiders. Some interesting articles. In Season, Five Thirty Eight do some good stats analyses and breakdowns, playoff odds and such. Especially, with the importance of the DVOA. I mean they

focus a bit more on Baseball and Basketball, right now, but they did have an interesting article on Dez and Demaryius' contracts.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-dez-bryant-and-demaryius-thomas-worth-140-million/

I know SB Nation's also pretty good for college ball, and for the SEC, Saturday Down South is pretty good. For more college ball stuff, ESPN's good.

For the FCS, there was a Reddit subreddit for the FCS which was very interesting, but with the reddit stuff, it's best to be a member. I remember my friend at ISU was following the immediate aftermath of ISU's game at Montana State ( a game played at -23 celsius; which ISU were winning, but it came down to a hail-mary from the MSU 30 yard line. ) I still believe ISU were screwed with the non-call on Pass Interference -- should have been an untimed down from the 20 yard line, and I would have backed Justin Arias every single time in that situation. Seems reddit agreed...oh well. Even a lot of MSU fans seemed to agree that ISU got screwed with the call too...

Reply 1003

I think the DVOA stat is a great idea but I'm not convinced FO interpret it properly all the time. For example a QB doesn't have a DVOA, an offense generates a passing game DVOA that is heavily influenced by the QB. They're good when they isolate variables, such as if the backup QB gets a meaningful sample with the same O line and receivers. Receiver DVOA makes more sense because you can compare it to other receivers in that same system.

Reply 1004

OP

Give this a read. Russell Okung's now negotiating his contract without an agent. A sensible idea if you've got the business and finance savvy along with the negotiation skills.

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/russell-okung-seahawks-agents-in-sports/

Reply 1005

OP

I just started fantasy planning today because I was bored. I need preseason to hurry up!

Reply 1006

Original post by Wattsy

I just started fantasy planning today because I was bored. I need preseason to hurry up!

In one of my fantasy leagues, we already had the draft, about a month and a half ago. I think I got a good team, with Andy Dalton, CJ Anderson, Mark Ingram, Cody Latimer, Devante Parker, Josh Hill, TJ Yeldon, Graham Gano and Vikings defense. I did draft Greg Olsen and stupidly gave him away for a Seahawks defense that I then discarded. I drafted Antonio Green but I want to sell high. My gut says that he's going to have a rubbish season, and Josh Hill, the former IDAHO STATE BENGAL!!!, will be amazing. I still have Kenny Stills, Devonta Freeman, Deandre "I am speed" Carter (former Sacramento State WR who was the most overlooked kid in the entire draft process, and the biggest bargain to boot.), and Terrelle Pryor. It sucks that he's still listed as a QB though. I know playing in pads and playing in street clothes are two different things, but he's grown so much as a wide reciever, and he's on a team that will use them...This is in an eighteen man league, so I felt I did well. Yeah, the receiving options are weak, but I have a good running back stable...

Reply 1007

OP

Original post by jammy4041

x

I'm looking at this year thinking I want blue-chip RBs and hipster receivers. I will probably end up with a rookie RB but that's just because there are loads of them and people aren't stupid.

TJ Yeldon is going to be good behind an improved line :adore:

Cody Latimer will see more snaps this year guaranteed. You fudged at TE, TE is a crapshoot, last year not scoring 0 TE points was almost an achievement and Greg Olsen was the boy! I had him last year in our league.

I really don't want the #1 pick either. **** feeling obliged to pick AP the bastard! I liked 4 last year, assuming we get 10 people this year that would serve me well again.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 1008

http://grantland.com/features/legends-football-league-womens-lingerie-football-league-mitchell-mortaza/?ex_cid=GrantlandFB

Never watched the LFL but I found this article pretty interesting. Too bad the commissioner sounds exactly as sleazy as you would expect an LFL commissioner to be.

Reply 1009

Original post by SmashConcept

http://grantland.com/features/legends-football-league-womens-lingerie-football-league-mitchell-mortaza/?ex_cid=GrantlandFB

Never watched the LFL but I found this article pretty interesting. Too bad the commissioner sounds exactly as sleazy as you would expect an LFL commissioner to be.

I saw that article. Yes, it's very interesting how they all seem to join the LFL just because they love playing football, and how they had similar backgrounds, and the intensity of the contact is very real, only to be screwed by the entire league and especially the commissioner. The Grantland article did put a lot of emphasis on the way in which there was a fundamental difference between being an employee as these women clearly are, and 'independent contractors' which the league claimed the women are. I felt really sad for Nikki Johnson though. Played QB all her life, and grew up in a west-coast system, and she got screwed over by the league.

In terms of where Women's football goes, the LFL isn't the final result. I just hope that it dies as a league, and that the women have a chance to play a fast and intense game in a league with a comish which respects them, pays them, and doesn't abandon them when they need medical bills covered...

I would still like to know their reasoning behind not providing compensation, especially when they did it in the first year. The Grantland article mentioned how the LFL's reasoning was something along the lines of "if we pay the women, then we can't grow the league" but in year two of a league which showed a lot of promise, it made no sense.

Reply 1010

I think it's just because they can't afford it. Women's football will be very hard to market without sex appeal, it will always be an inferior product to NFL, NCAA and CFL just because of speed and skill. Maybe it will slowly take off in Europe. I think Arena is a better format than 11v11 just because of the difficulty of finding 50 talented and willing women per team to form a league. Then again that applies to European football too... in fact, **** it. Why don't we play some sort of Arena rules? It would make our product better and games more competitive. Most countries could probably produce a national Arena team capable of mixing it with America.

Reply 1011

OP

Surely the women's league has to start in school and then college as a proving ground? If they played in college maybe on baseball style partial scholarships at first the women's game would grow there'd be more talent about to make up teams and leagues in at least semi-pro capacities? It also wouldn't be ridiculous like the LFL, there would be trousers and proper protection/helmets and medical insurance.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 1012

Malevolent

Man I kinda want this whole Deflategate nonsense to go to court. Really **** Goodell up.

Reply 1013

Original post by Wattsy

Surely the women's league has to start in school and then college as a proving ground? If they played in college maybe on baseball style partial scholarships at first the women's game would grow there'd be more talent about to make up teams and leagues in at least semi-pro capacities? It also wouldn't be ridiculous like the LFL, there would be trousers and proper protection/helmets and medical insurance.

It's pretty much established that elite adult female athletes are about as good as top high high school level athletes (probably with the exception of the most dominant female athlete ever, Serena Williams). So would there really be enough interest in a league that probably doesn't even get the best female athletes anyway and doesn't even have any sex appeal like tennis apparently does (don't really see it myself but whatever). I don't think there's any way they could generate enough interest to pay players except in an LFL style league. I think there are ways to legitimise that somewhat. Let ugly women play, pretty ones will get the big money and attention anyway like Sharapova has, pay players, and stop doing really dumb stuff.. So yeah I'm torn between wanting the LFL to die and wanting it to grow to meet the needs of female players..

Original post by Malevolent

Man I kinda want this whole Deflategate nonsense to go to court. Really **** Goodell up.

Not a lawyer but I kind of envisage two separate lawsuits. One for defamation, one in regards to workplace law or whatever. The second one is dicey because the CBA says the NFL can pretty much do what they want even though most people seem to agree it's obviously bull**** at this point. But Brady could sue for a metric ****load of money for damaging his brand, which they have done (evidence: dumb**** sports writers putting asterisks next to his name, etc). I don't know if he could sue for enough to really make a $7bn pa business have problems, but I would love it if he could.

Reply 1014

I must admit it is interesting some of the moves the Saints are making. Cutting Junior Gallette with his big contract is a very bold move. First Jimmy Graham, then Kenny Stills, and a fundamental change in the nature of their offense. Some real food for thought.

Original post by Wattsy

I'm looking at this year thinking I want blue-chip RBs and hipster receivers. I will probably end up with a rookie RB but that's just because there are loads of them and people aren't stupid.

TJ Yeldon is going to be good behind an improved line :adore:

Cody Latimer will see more snaps this year guaranteed. You fudged at TE, TE is a crapshoot, last year not scoring 0 TE points was almost an achievement and Greg Olsen was the boy! I had him last year in our league.

I really don't want the #1 pick either. **** feeling obliged to pick AP the bastard! I liked 4 last year, assuming we get 10 people this year that would serve me well again.

Nah, TE will be fine. I still have Antonio Gates, and I really believe in Josh Hill to put up numbers better than Jimmy Graham this year. Yes, I'll say that again: Josh Hill will put up better numbers than Jimmy Graham this year. I'd expect an 80 catch/900 yard/10 TD season out of him, at least, especially because Drew Brees is still going to throw the football. The Saints won't pass the ball as much, but the will still pass about 35 times a game, and Josh Hill is a swiss army knife of a TE. He's a proper tight end, who is an aboslute monster when it comes to blocking. Last year, Josh Hill was the best TE on the Saints roster, and he has the potential to be every bit as dominate as Travis Kelce or maybe even 70% of Gronk. Yes, he's a former Idaho State Bengal, and there is a bit of kool-aid drinkin' going on, but he's an athletic freak who has really matured. And the Saints didn't even draft a TE, because he's better than all the TEs in this draft class.

That said, it still stings, losing Olsen. I didn't mean to trade Olsen, godammit.

Also, I would suggest an auction draft just to mix things up. I'm going to try it out in my own league, after liking the concept as used in a ESPN baseball draft.

Reply 1015

OP

Original post by jammy4041

. Yes, I'll say that again: Josh Hill will put up better numbers than Jimmy Graham this year.

jammy GOING HARD. Gauntlet thrown. It's time to begin the bold predictions board when you're going aka like that. I'll merge them all together and we can review at season end. I was terrible last time so I'm not going to rush in. Dallas as the 32 ranked D... my rose tints were on and I was thinking of Wembley.

Deadline preseason week 1 because after pre-season is way less bold.

I'm not a lawyer but I am a law student so I'll have a look at the deflate gate stuff over August if I can. I might not be able to make a head and a tail of it but we shall see. I've only got dissertation research to do then so I should have plenty of time.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 1016

Original post by Wattsy

jammy GOING HARD. Gauntlet thrown. It's time to begin the bold predictions board when you're going aka like that. I'll merge them all together and we can review at season end. I was terrible last time so I'm not going to rush in. Dallas as the 32 ranked D... my rose tints were on and I was thinking of Wembley.

Deadline preseason week 1 because after pre-season is way less bold.

I'm not a lawyer but I am a law student so I'll have a look at the deflate gate stuff over August if I can. I might not be able to make a head and a tail of it but we shall see. I've only got dissertation research to do then so I should have plenty of time.

Indeed

1a. Texans win the AFC-south, behind improved QB play, upgrades at WR, and a top-3 defense...
1b. Led by JJ Watt. He breaks the 20 sack total, becomes Houston's defacto goal-to-go TE, and scores 5 offensive, and 8 total TDs.
2. TJ Yeldon rushes for most yards of the rookie running back class, and wins OROY awards.
3. Despite the loss of Tom Brady for four games, Julian Edelman has his best season in the NFL, and finally breaks the 1100 yard barrier.
4. Raiders finally get back some respectability, with a 7-9 season.
5a. With their players finally healthy, and with the league's best pass rush, the Chiefs have the best defense in the league, push Denver all the way in the AFC west and get the #5 wildcard.
5b. Yes, Houston rewards the faith of the Chiefs with a record-breaking sack season.
6. With a fragile defense and o-line, Gore and Andre Johnson underwhelm in their last pro season, as the Colts slip out of the playoffs.
7. Baltimore win the AFC north, but the rest of the teams in the division miss out on the playoffs.
8a. Elisha Manning, in his second year of the Ben Mcadoo offense, with Victor Cruz and OBJ having 1000 yard seasons each, posts a bigger season, at least in terms of yards and TDs, than Peyton. Something around, 64% completion rate, 4700 yards, 8.0 yards a pop, 36TDs and 12 INTs and a 101QB rating. Yes, it would be Elisha's highest pass completion rate, second highest season yardage, second highest season ypa, TDs, lowest INTs.
8b. With an improved o-line, WR corps, secondary, experience in the system, and a good fit with Shane Vereen and Andre Williams, as a useful one-two punch, it is the Giants who triumph in the NFC East.
8c. For the record, I'd "predicting" Peyton to have a 3800 yards, 8.5 yards a pop, 69% completion rate, 27 TDs, 10 INTs season, good for a 106 QB rating. For the record, I'd expect the Broncos to still throw the ball about 27 times on average per game, but transitioning to a more run-first philosophy...
9. So, bit of a homer pick here, but CJ Anderson will lead the league in touchdowns, rushing, receiving, and will get around 1600 yards rushing, 2000 yards all purpose yards.
10. A healthy AP breaks the 2000 yard barrier and breaks Eric Dickerson's rushing yardage, as the Lions finish 11-5 for a NFC wild card spot.
11. The Falcons channel some of their 2012 magic, and win the NFC-South and go to the playoffs with the Saints as a wild card. NFC South goes from worst-to-one of the best divisions again. Even Tampa should go no worse than 7-9.
12. My gut superbowl matchup right now, has to be Ravens-Packers, although, I hope I'm wrong on that one...

Regarding deflategate...it's a mess for everyone involved. The worst thing though, is that the league has let the Patriots down by not resolving this mess sooner. Right now, there has to be clarity, and there isn't.

I'm so annoyed at Derek Wolfe though. After this season, his time as a Bronco is done.

Reply 1017

OP

With 15 you had best get one. I personally hope it's #2. I'm interested with your big win predictions for teams which do a lot of losing; whose going to lose in their place? I'd personally be on the 49ers to be horrible like 5-11 horrible, the Cardinals to be more like 8-8 than 11-5. Mediocrity/competitiveness and records around the 7,8,9 win territory seem more viable for more teams this year.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 1018

OP