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Alex Salmond - "Scotland would win the YES vote if referendum held this week" ?

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/alex-salmond-scotland-would-vote-yes-if-another-referendum-w

Do you agree?

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Reply 1
Avatar for Ace123
Ace123
2
Original post by Moura


I doubt it last time the voting rules were very strongly in the SNP's favour e.g. immigrants could vote, 16 year olds could vote, Scots in the rest of the UK could not vote and he still lost
Reply 2
Avatar for L i b
L i b
19
Nope, he's wrong. It was a constant refrain of the Yes campaign in the two years plus leading up to the referendum that they were gaining momentum, even when it was demonstrably untrue. This is simply the logical end-game of that silly argument, after being decisively beaten.

Not only that, his arguments - about currency union, about an "oil boom" and that under the UK there would be no further devolution of powers - have all been demonstrated to be utter rubbish, tinged with a great deal of dishonesty.

They had years to make a case. The people of Scotland were barraged with their crap constantly over that lengthy period: they've listened to what Alex Salmond and his SNP allies had to say, and rejected it by an 11 point margin. His comments in the link are also quite misleading: he's suggested they were on 28% at the start and rose to 45% - that's simply not the case: they were polling 28% with undecideds included.
(edited 8 years ago)
Reply 3
Avatar for Dez
Dez
20
I don't think it's likely. Possible, perhaps, but it would be a very close-run thing. To be honest, Salmond is probably just spouting hot air, in a slightly desperate attempt to remain relevant.
Difficult to say. Polls indicate that support for independence has continued to rise, and it's rather disconcerting how inept pro-Union politicians are at combating nationalism.

Things have changed a little since the referendum. For example, the oil industry is in its biggest downturn for decades, demonstrating Salmond's argument that we're on the cusp of a second oil boom totally false. But nationalism is an entirely visceral political ideology; it certainly doesn't let facts get in the way! The nats are like Teflon at the moment, and seem to be having great fun playing grievance politics... if they win 2016's election with a second referendum as part of their manifesto, and Cameron doesn't grant it, things will really explode. I think that's why whether or not Sturgeon is going to call one preoccupies the minds of many pro-Union politicians so much.
I think we should offer another referendum soon but with the proviso that if they go independent there is a subsequent referendum after 2 years; 5 years and 10 years of an independent Scotland where the Scots are asked if they want to return to being part of the UK.

Salmond presumably will accept this because he believes that when a country goes independent it never looks back, so it would be a great way to show all the doubters that the people of Scotland were resoundingly voting to remain independent.
Reply 6
Avatar for djj
djj
3
I think the SNP would be daft to hold another one to be honest.

Best chance they have is if they wait 5 years, when some of the older voters who are more likely to vote "no" have passed away.

Sounds grim but it's there.
But it's not, so...
Original post by Moura


A third of SNP voters have said they won't vite SNP if they offer up another referendum.

If like to see what made up Promises they're willing to make this time around. They've been busted flush in their promises of North Sea oil revenue, automatic entry into Europe and basically everything they promised.
Original post by Smack
Difficult to say. Polls indicate that support for independence has continued to rise, and it's rather disconcerting how inept pro-Union politicians are at combating nationalism.

Things have changed a little since the referendum. For example, the oil industry is in its biggest downturn for decades, demonstrating Salmond's argument that we're on the cusp of a second oil boom totally false. But nationalism is an entirely visceral political ideology; it certainly doesn't let facts get in the way! The nats are like Teflon at the moment, and seem to be having great fun playing grievance politics... if they win 2016's election with a second referendum as part of their manifesto, and Cameron doesn't grant it, things will really explode. I think that's why whether or not Sturgeon is going to call one preoccupies the minds of many pro-Union politicians so much.


I don't think they're like Teflon. People are starting to question what the SNP have actually achieved.
I doubt it - as I see it the Yes campaign failed because there was too much uncertainty over currency, debt, EU membership and things like this rather than a lack of appetite for independence. Unless those issues are resolved I don't see how another referendum could win independence. But then given a few more years of Conservative government the Scots may get annoyed enough to want to leave.

Five or ten years down the line maybe we could see a Yes victory but I don't think it's wise to keep having referenda until you get the answer you want.
But if they went independent this week Salmond would lose his cushy MP's salary next week, so best wait when they have collected the full £350k from the British taxpayer before heading off.
Original post by MatureStudent36
I don't think they're like Teflon. People are starting to question what the SNP have actually achieved.


Not hard enough. The disaster that is Police Scotland, a decision that was made out of political convenience, is a prime example of centralisation for centralisation's sake, which is something they level at the UK government time and time again.

Problem is MS from my standpoint they seem to be able to do and say anything and get away with it. So they will probably break their vow on another referendum and get in with a landslide anyway.
Original post by Midlander
Not hard enough. The disaster that is Police Scotland, a decision that was made out of political convenience, is a prime example of centralisation for centralisation's sake, which is something they level at the UK government time and time again.

Problem is MS from my standpoint they seem to be able to do and say anything and get away with it. So they will probably break their vow on another referendum and get in with a landslide anyway.


Give it time.
Original post by MatureStudent36
I don't think they're like Teflon. People are starting to question what the SNP have actually achieved.


But it's not sticking! Hence the Teflon reference.

Original post by Manitude
I doubt it - as I see it the Yes campaign failed because there was too much uncertainty over currency, debt, EU membership and things like this rather than a lack of appetite for independence.


No, it failed almost entirely because there just wasn't enough of a desire for independence amongst Scots. If there was, then quite frankly boring topics such as currency and the intricacies of EU membership would never have been discussed, because they simply wouldn't be all that important to the outcome.
Original post by MatureStudent36
Give it time.


More to the point who is going to replace them in government?
Original post by Midlander
More to the point who is going to replace them in government?


Politics is cyclic. The Tories were a big power in Scotland, the. Labour became dominant now the SNP.

As has been pointed out. Education, healthcare and policing is failing in Scotland and there's only so long the SNP can use the 'look over there' distraction politics.
Original post by MatureStudent36
Politics is cyclic. The Tories were a big power in Scotland, the. Labour became dominant now the SNP.

As has been pointed out. Education, healthcare and policing is failing in Scotland and there's only so long the SNP can use the 'look over there' distraction politics.


My point is a realistic challenge has to come from somewhere. Next year comes too soon for Dugdale's Labour, and while I quite like Ruth Davidson a Tory majority in Scotland is decades away.
Original post by Midlander
My point is a realistic challenge has to come from somewhere. Next year comes too soon for Dugdale's Labour, and while I quite like Ruth Davidson a Tory majority in Scotland is decades away.


Let them f*** it up for a bit. The SNP has no talent.
Reply 19
Avatar for BigItch
BigItch
1
Original post by Moura


Well they won it first time round apart from the electoral fraud

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