The Arsenal Thread XXIV

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Reply 80

SA-1

The **** the Ozil come's out with must really emotionally drain defenders..

I mean, Okore looks violated.. felt bad for him

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 81

llys

Original post by sr90

Of course they are

Posted from TSR Mobile

Do you have figures? They should be, but I only have figures for the PL, where only 11% of academy graduates progress upwards. Therefore, most have to go down the leagues, and I'd guess it works something like this:

PL: buy foreigners
Championship: (mainly) buy foreigners
League 1/2: buy PL and Championship academy graduates (who are probably better than their own graduates)
Conference clubs: take on Football League academy graduates (who are probably better than their own graduates)

and so on

So lower league clubs bring young English players through, but probably not many of their own, because better players are coming down from the top / most players progress downwards. I'm wondering / would be very interested to know at which league level 50% of their own academy graduates could progress into the first team ability-wise.

I'm even starting to doubt if PL clubs should have academies at all - most don't seem to achieve much with them, and it probably would be better for young players to have to fight their way up the leagues than to be sent on their way down.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 82

llys

Freaky, it's like he's echoing my thoughts:

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/nov/10/arsene-wenger-football-doping-arsenal

Reply 83

shawn_o1

So you wouldn't speak out against doping unless you're involved in it yourself (or people allege that you have). Classy.

Reply 84

llys

Original post by shawn_o1

So you wouldn't speak out against doping unless you're involved in it yourself (or people allege that you have). Classy.

What?

For the record, this is the part that "echoes my thoughts" (perhaps you should look up what that means):

“For me, the beauty of sport is that everyone wants to win, but there will only be one winner. We have reached an era in which we glorify the winner, without looking at the means or the method. And 10 years later we realise the guy was a cheat. And during that time, the one that came second suffered. He didn’t get recognition. And, with all that’s been said about them, they can be very unhappy.”

Two years ago Wenger said that sport was “full of legends who are in fact cheats” as he called on Uefa to improve its drug testing programme. “Honestly, I don’t think we do enough [on doping tests],” he said. “It is very difficult for me to believe that you have 740 players at the World Cup and you come out with zero problems. Mathematically, that happens every time. But statistically, even for social drugs, it looks like we would do better to go deeper.

“I hope England is immune from doping but I don’t know. When you have a doping control at Uefa [matches], they do not take blood, they take only urine. I have asked many times in Geneva [for that to be changed]. I hope we do not have a big problem with doping but we have to try to find out.”

(edited 8 years ago)

Original post by shawn_o1

So you wouldn't speak out against doping unless you're involved in it yourself (or people allege that you have). Classy.

Reported for missing the point.

Reply 87

sr90

Volunteer Team

Original post by llys

Therefore, most have to go down the leagues, and I'd guess it works something like this:

PL: buy foreigners
Championship: (mainly) buy foreigners
League 1/2: buy PL and Championship academy graduates (who are probably better than their own graduates)
Conference clubs: take on Football League academy graduates (who are probably better than their own graduates).

Not even remotely true.

Lower league clubs have to use their own youth talents because they can't afford not to. Anyone who is any good gets flogged to a Premier League club as soon as the first offer comes in and the cycle repeats. We all know the young talents that clubs like Southampton, Crewe and Leeds had to sell on but go look at any club and there's lots of examples.

Reply 88

Mackay

Clubs in the elite tier of English football often use their contacts to send any players they are releasing to lower league clubs, too. They very rarely cut a young player who has come through their system high and dry, in fairness.

Reply 89

llys

Original post by sr90

Of course there are examples of players going up or staying in one place. But most players must go down, surely, because the academy players who are up top and don't make it into the first team come down; that's 90% of PL youth graduates. They must replace local players down the leagues, unless they quit football altogether, no? At what league level do you think this effect peters out?

Original post by Mackay

Exactly (and where else would they go?). I'm thinking it would probably be better the other way around, but that's never going to happen, so probably not even worth discussing tbh.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 90

Mackay

Original post by llys

Exactly (and where else would they go?). I'm thinking it would probably be better the other way around, but that's never going to happen, so probably not even worth discussing tbh.

It's the way it should be. Despite reports to the contrary, elite clubs treat their youngsters very well and set them up as much as they can for a life in football. They often tell players who are unlikely to make it that fact right from the off, and the majority of cast-offs end up at a solid level like League One or League Two, anyway.

Reply 91

llys

Original post by Mackay

Then they would make it there from a League One or League Two academy as well. :wink:

Reply 92

Mackay

Original post by llys

Then they would make it there from a League One or League Two academy as well. :wink:

Plenty of player show that you are able to advance from lower league clubs, given the right work ethic, luck and commitment.

Jamie Vardy is this season's example, of course. Harry Kane was cast off on loan before becoming Spurs' key player since Gareth Bale's departure.

You've also got the likes of Troy Deeney, Rickie Lambert etc who played at low levels before firing themselves into the top flight.

Reply 93

llys

Original post by Mackay

Plenty of player show that you are able to advance from lower league clubs, given the right work ethic, luck and commitment.

Yep.

I don't really disagree with you on your other point BTW. I agree there probably are no great disadvantages for League One standard players being PL youth - if they are aware of their prospects and happy with going down, why not. I just see no great advantages to it either. My ideal club would be self-sustainable in terms of players (which of course means it would never make it to the Football League).

I guess my point will become moot anyway. Once PL clubs import most of their U19 from other countries (probably not too far away), and Championship clubs follow, more English youths will train with clubs who are more closely aligned with their ability level. This will mean they have a more realistic chance to break through at their parent club and the ones who are genuinely PL standard (very few based on current evidence) will play their way up the leagues and perhaps be better for it (perhaps not; I think playing your way up may be more character-building than playing your way down, but probably both is character-building TBF).

I'm probably the only one who actually likes this possible development, although people who think the loan system works should surely be happy with this development as well...

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 94

Mackay

Original post by llys

It's something that really interests me.

A lot of the elite clubs began these academies in a bid to save money. They were supposed to be economically viable, as well as treating them to the locally-sourced players who would give you all the old cliches like extra commitment, added passion etc.

Now, there's been a shift and the greater influx of foreign players means those local lads are being forced down the leagues - but it's entirely by self-fulfilling prophecy, in my view. I'm extremely liberal, and don't want this to sound like I'm UKIP or some "the foreigners are taking all of our jobs" tirade.

You can sense there's an inherent unfairness, though. People suggest maybe English kids just aren't of the quality they once were, but I'm unsure of that. I think the limiting of chances fuels their psyche, and resentment grows.

It must be annoying for homegrown kids to be unable to get on the bench at a team because they've got some player - who is probably no better than them - on there because the club has paid money.

We've seen it at Liverpool. Aly Cissokho was brought in on big wages on loan, when we had the likes of Jon Flanagan and even Jack Robinson (who we sold) able to do 95% of what Cissokho did for NO fee whatsoever.

Likewise, Jordan Rossiter is having as big an impact now on Liverpool as Luis Alberto (£6m worth of footballer) did.

Of course, there's another side to this. Jay Spearing was never good enough, in truth, and I doubt any Reds fan would want him to be in the squad these days over somebody like Emre Can, despite the latter being young and raw and capable of making defensive errors due to concentration lapses.

The other thing to remember, of course, is that managers life cycles are nowhere near long enough to wait around for an academy long-term plan to bear first-team fruit. You get managers in jobs for two or three years these days, and if you're starting a new academy system with a new philosophy and new staff, you're probably six or seven years away from that creating a fully-fledged first-team player.

Hence, you get coaches buying quick fixes. It's completely understandable, and a way for managers to be self-sustainable themselves.

Reply 95

sr90

Volunteer Team

Premier League clubs can't afford to gamble on youth with so much money at stake, when a player gets in the team it's usually forced. Where would Bellerin be now if Debuchy never got injured? Probably on loan. Where would Coquelin be if Flamini and Arteta weren't injured? He'd have been sold or released. Would anyone have heard of Paddy McNair, Adnan Januzaj or Jesse Lingard if United weren't Depleted by injury, or would Harry Kane have had that fantastic season last year if Soldado and Adebayor weren't in such dreadful form? Unlikely.

Clubs need to give these players a chance. I don't agree with quotas or limits, rather on more resources being deployed to youth development. Just look at what Germany did.

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Reply 96

Mackay

Original post by sr90

Agreed.

It just reinforces the point that the youngsters coming through the academy can likely give you everything an established star can over a short run of games.

Interestingly, I saw Januzaj was slated for refusing a call-up to the Belgium Under-21s squad. He's only started two games for Dortmund this year. What's he playing at?

Reply 97

llys

Original post by Mackay

The other possibility is that young players haven't become worse, but that the top division has become better or more demanding.

IF the PL is really "the best league in the world" attracting many of the best players in the world, and IF English youngsters are no better or worse than their European counterparts, then obviously most English youngsters are not at the standard required for the PL. It is no surprise at all, just basic statistics. The youngsters could on average even be better than 20 years ago, and still not be "good enough" if the quality of the league has increased faster due to globalisation. It would also explain why other top European leagues bring more youngsters through than the PL: IF on average their league standard is lower, then youngsters are much more likely to meet the standard and get a chance.

I think this distinction is very important to the whole "how to save English football" debate but I don't really know how one would measure if that is the case. It's obvious that the stakes are much higher, leading to effects like you describe below, but how do you compare quality between different generations of English top divisions and players, it seems impossible.

It must be annoying for homegrown kids to be unable to get on the bench at a team because they've got some player - who is probably no better than them - on there because the club has paid money.

We've seen it at Liverpool. Aly Cissokho was brought in on big wages on loan, when we had the likes of Jon Flanagan and even Jack Robinson (who we sold) able to do 95% of what Cissokho did for NO fee whatsoever.

Likewise, Jordan Rossiter is having as big an impact now on Liverpool as Luis Alberto (£6m worth of footballer) did.

Of course, there's another side to this. Jay Spearing was never good enough, in truth, and I doubt any Reds fan would want him to be in the squad these days over somebody like Emre Can, despite the latter being young and raw and capable of making defensive errors due to concentration lapses.

The other thing to remember, of course, is that managers life cycles are nowhere near long enough to wait around for an academy long-term plan to bear first-team fruit. You get managers in jobs for two or three years these days, and if you're starting a new academy system with a new philosophy and new staff, you're probably six or seven years away from that creating a fully-fledged first-team player.

Hence, you get coaches buying quick fixes. It's completely understandable, and a way for managers to be self-sustainable themselves.

I agree, though that strategy doesn't seem to work out so well for managers either.

Reply 98

Mackay

Original post by llys

I agree, though that strategy doesn't seem to work out so well for managers either.

It's completely understandable, though. It's amazing how managers will try and preserve themselves.

We've seen it with managers become much more timid under pressure, thus playing negative football and just trying to ride out the storm. Confidence is everything in football - it's currency - and we've seen that with new manager bounces, how new coaches create better atmospheres on the pitch and thus spark another self-fulfilling prophecy.

Reply 99

Diego Costa

Original post by Mackay

The problem is that lower league clubs and below very often focus on playing defensively and hoofing the ball up the pitch which creates very limited players, which leaves player out of their depth when they're coming to the higher leagues where possession is much more important.

Vardy, Deeney and Lambert are just good finishers, they're not technical. I'd have a hard time even saying Deeney is decent.