Oldham West and Royton by-election Watch

jamestg
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After yesterday's vote, many people have forgotten about this important by-election.

This seat is a safe Labour seat, and since 1950 - it has only returned one non-Labour MP (a conservative). However this is the first electoral test for Corbyn, and a predicted surge for UKIP and vote share gain for the tories - Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).

2015 Election Result
Lab - 55%
UKIP - 21%
Cons - 19%
Lib Dems - 4%
Others - 1%

2015 by-election Election Prediction (latest poll figures, using electoral calculus)
Lab - 52% (-3%)
UKIP - 23% (+2%)
Cons - 21% (+2%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)

jamestg Prediction
Lab - 43% (-12%)
UKIP - 31% (+10%)
Cons - 22% (+3%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)

What do you predict? Do you think yesterday's vote and/or Corbyn will have an impact?
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Davij038
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(Original post by jamestg)
After yesterday's vote, many people have forgotten about this important by-election.

This seat is a safe Labour seat, and since 1950 - it has only returned one non-Labour MP (a conservative). However this is the first electoral test for Corbyn, and a predicted surge for UKIP and vote share gain for the tories - Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).

2015 Election Result
Lab - 55%
UKIP - 21%
Cons - 19%
Lib Dems - 4%
Others - 1%

2015 by-election Election Prediction (latest poll figures, using electoral calculus)
Lab - 52% (-3%)
UKIP - 23% (+2%)
Cons - 21% (+2%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)

jamestg Prediction
Lab - 43% (-12%)
UKIP - 31% (+10%)
Cons - 22% (+3%)
Lib Dems - 3% (-1%)
Others - 1% (NC)

What do you predict? Do you think yesterday's vote and/or Corbyn will have an impact?

I actually think that a pretty good prediction.
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jamestg
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(Original post by Davij038)
I actually think that a pretty good prediction.
My one or the one based on the latest poll?
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Davij038
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(Original post by jamestg)
My one or the one based on the latest poll?
Haha

Your one sorry
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Krollo
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Good to see some other election nerds round here. :ahee:

Lab - 40
UKIP - 34
Con - 21
Lib - 4
Green - 1
MRLP - 0

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SHallowvale
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(Original post by jamestg)
Labour's majority could either be significantly reduced, or even wiped out giving a small UKIP majority (thus returning a UKIP MP).
Could be, but I don't see what all the fuss is about since Labour are predicted to win by a majority of votes (52%, as you've said)?

Unless I'm missing something!

Have there been any opinion polls done in the constituency since the election?
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jamestg
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Could be, but I don't see what all the fuss is about since Labour are predicted to win by a majority of votes (52%, as you've said)?

Unless I'm missing something!

Have there been any opinion polls done in the constituency since the election?
52% is very unlikely because you cannot model a national vote within a single constituency - the most it will do, is show the general trend and as it's shown it's given Labour a decrease in share with UKIP and Conservatives getting an increase. I included it in the OP purely for that reason

I've got no idea about polls in the constituency, but I assume so. I'll have a google!
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jamestg
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(Original post by Krollo)
Good to see some other election nerds round here. :ahee:

Lab - 40
UKIP - 34
Con - 21
Lib - 4
Green - 1
MRLP - 0

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Fairly similar predictions (ish) - I cannot wait to see the result
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username878267
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A lot of Tory voters will lend their vote to UKIP so the majority will certainly be reduced.
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Davij038
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(Original post by Bornblue)
A lot of Tory voters will lend their vote to UKIP so the majority will certtainly be reduced.
I think as well there'll be a few Tories voting labour especially as they've got a decent centrist candidate, corbyn or no.

Definatley an interesting contest.
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username878267
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(Original post by Davij038)
I think as well there'll be a few Tories voting labour especially as they've got a decent centrist candidate, corbyn or no.

Definatley an interesting contest.
I don't think it's going to tell us too much unless UKIP win or come incredibly close.
I reckon the majority will go down by about half but that's normal in a by election.


Would have been far more interesting if it was a tory-labour marginal.
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abruiseonthesky
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I think Labour will take a majority, but maybe only just. It was close in the Heywood by-election when their MP died, but I think Oldham is slightly more Lab/less UKIP than Heywood, even if only a little.
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jamestg
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(Original post by Bornblue)
I don't think it's going to tell us too much unless UKIP win or come incredibly close.
I reckon the majority will go down by about half but that's normal in a by election.


Would have been far more interesting if it was a tory-labour marginal.
Agreed.
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username878267
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Turnout is just over 40% which is higher than expected.
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TheArtofProtest
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Sources saying Labour have got over 60% of the vote.
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TheArtofProtest
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Prediction:

Lab - 63%
UKIP - 21%
Con - 10%

Others - 6%

EDIT: Should clarify that these are my predictions. Lib Dems (They seem to be prolific tweeters in Oldham have Lab on 62 and UKIP on 23).
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username878267
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Amazing if true.

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jamestg
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(Original post by TheArtofProtest)
Sources saying Labour have got over 60% of the vote.
I highly doubt that, they didn't even get that in 1997.

If they maintain, or even slightly increase, their majority it will be down to a low turnout (20% lower than in May) and a very strong Labour Party candidate.
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TheArtofProtest
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(Original post by jamestg)
I highly doubt that, they didn't even get that in 1997.

If they maintain, or even slightly increase, their majority it will be down to a low turnout (20% lower than in May) and a very strong Labour Party candidate.
Well, the Lib Dems are tweeting that. God knows where they get their information from but they did say that they and the Greens lost their deposit.

Following it on the Guardian. I understand BBC also has rolling coverage.
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Krollo
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I did not expect that.

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