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Latest Brexit poll- 53% leave 47% Stay

The latest polling for Brexit gives the leave campaign a lead of 6% 53% for Leave vs. 47% for stay, by survation http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/635374/Eu-referendum-Brexit-boost-leave-campaign-lead-poll-Britain-Brussels-Cameron

A 2nd poll yesterday by Comres also gave the leave campaign the lead with 40%vs 38% for stay

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I'm amazed it's as low as 53% to leave.
Personally I don't care, but I'd be very surprised if the Leave side won. They pro-EU side will have more campaign resources come the actual referendum, and I think undecideds and even some who are currently saying Leave will get nervous and jump to Stay late on.

For this poll in particular, bear in mind that the 53-47 division is only when undecideds have been excluded - the actual poll numbers are 42-38, with 20% undecided. And a poll last week by ICM put the Stay side ahead by a wider margin, so hard to conclude much.
Original post by Sephiroth
I'm amazed it's as low as 53% to leave.


Yeah, this seems a bit dodgy, I would have thought more like 65% leave, Labour voters are turning to leave as Cameron's 'renegotiation' turns out to be a farce which isn't addressing anything anyone cares about. Nothing on overfishing, immigration or trade deals.
Original post by balanced
Yeah, this seems a bit dodgy, I would have thought more like 65% leave, Labour voters are turning to leave as Cameron's 'renegotiation' turns out to be a farce which isn't addressing anything anyone cares about. Nothing on overfishing, immigration or trade deals.


You summed it up pretty nicely. This renegotiation is a complete waste of time and it is not going to sway any leave voters to a stay.
I think until the new deal comes out the polls aren't really a good representation. Even some Eurosceptic MP's are waiting to see the new deal.
Original post by Sephiroth
You summed it up pretty nicely. This renegotiation is a complete waste of time and it is not going to sway any leave voters to a stay.


I think it's the complete opposite. For the majority of the electorate they don't really know, even MP's are waiting to see what deal we get. The deal would conduct the media, and the media the electorate.
Reply 7
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Rakas21
21
Original post by Sephiroth
I'm amazed it's as low as 53% to leave.


It's lower. That figure excludes 'don't know' and the people who look at polls excluding 'don't know' are the same people who in a years time will be telling us the polls were way off. In reality, you should always look at the proper figures because a large amount of that 'don't know' will in reality either not turn out or vote no to change as we saw in the likes of the AV and Scottish referendums.

You can see here that if we take a polling average it's probably something like 45-40 to In right now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Original post by balanced
Yeah, this seems a bit dodgy, I would have thought more like 65% leave, Labour voters are turning to leave as Cameron's 'renegotiation' turns out to be a farce which isn't addressing anything anyone cares about. Nothing on overfishing, immigration or trade deals.


You put too much faith in the electorate, people are far too unengaged to give either side that sort of lead right now. Remember that the Euro elections only had a turnout of 36%.
Reply 8
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Rakas21
21
Original post by EricAteYou
I think it's the complete opposite. For the majority of the electorate they don't really know, even MP's are waiting to see what deal we get. The deal would conduct the media, and the media the electorate.


When it comes to the EU i believe that a substantial part of the electorate 'don't know' or 'don't care'. While i myself may well vote out, i really can't see the British people voting for such radical change unless faced with the choice of 'join the euro or leave'.
Original post by Rakas21
It's lower. That figure excludes 'don't know' and the people who look at polls excluding 'don't know' are the same people who in a years time will be telling us the polls were way off. In reality, you should always look at the proper figures because a large amount of that 'don't know' will in reality either not turn out or vote no to change as we saw in the likes of the AV and Scottish referendums.

You can see here that if we take a polling average it's probably something like 45-40 to In right now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum



You put too much faith in the electorate, people are far too unengaged to give either side that sort of lead right now. Remember that the Euro elections only had a turnout of 36%.

I agree with your first view, if you don't know anything, you either don't vote or don't vote for change.

On the other hand, from my as course we covered the issue that people are un-engaged, which I disagree with. What we are doing right here is the exact embodiment of my point, which is that how we participate has changed. Look at a similar type of referendum, the Scottish independence referendum, only a few years ago with a similar topic, attracting a huge turnout.
It's times like these which make me very relieved that I have duel citizenship with a sensible European country.
Original post by Plagioclase
It's times like these which make me very relieved that I have duel citizenship with a sensible European country.


Unless it was Germany.
Escape from the EU monster is at hand!:biggrin:
The only thing I really worry about is that the British Union will break up if the UK leaves.
Original post by Rakas21
When it comes to the EU i believe that a substantial part of the electorate 'don't know' or 'don't care'. While i myself may well vote out, i really can't see the British people voting for such radical change unless faced with the choice of 'join the euro or leave'.


I kind of agree. I think many votes will be a proxy for whatever newspaper they pick up. Sadly ( in my view ) I think that may amount to a leave situation.
This poll doesn't count. No one asked me. Therefore it is not representative.
Original post by Plagioclase
It's times like these which make me very relieved that I have duel citizenship with a sensible European country.


I think I'm going to have to get round to getting mine sorted 👀
Yeah! Let's leave! I hate all the primary sector subsidies they give us! I just hate all their anti-democratic policies like the enforcing the Human Rights Act, ensuring an equal pay! Plus, who wants a healthy environment anyway! Eeew :wink:
Original post by IFoundWonderland
I think I'm going to have to get round to getting mine sorted 👀


I need to get mine renewed too but at least it's there!
It really doesn't help that most people who wish to leave are slightly racist little Englanders being lead by a poncey Southern snob.


Leave needs to speak to Celtic peoples much better.

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