New poll shows public opinion split on Trident

A new survey of public opinion on Trident has found that 51% of the public are in favour of fully renewing it, but that 49% either support Corbyn's hypothetical compromise plan with the unions ("no-nuke subs") or full disarmament.

This suggests that public opinion isn't as clear-cut as the media are making it out to be, and it's also worth noting that if Corbyn did adopt the compromise position, it is unlikely to damage is standing amongst unilateral disarmers: the 'left-wing' disarmers will still vote for him and the 'right-wing' disarmers wouldn't have voted for him anyway.

Channel 4 fact-check also says: "Over the long term, there is some evidence of public opinion shifting away from replacing Trident with a like-for-like system, especially if people are told about the likely cost."

So, there's still room for manoeuvre for Jeremy Corbyn on this issue.

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Reply 1

ChaoticButterfly

But he's a trot.
But he's a trot.

Spoiler

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 2

KimKallstrom

I think that we should divvy out matters of national security to random people in opinion polls.

Reply 3

ChaoticButterfly

Original post by KimKallstrom

I think that we should divvy out matters of national security to random people in opinion polls.

Not a moment ago you were lambasting corbyn for not representing the people. I guess that only counts when they don;t get in the way of our dear leader Kim.

Reply 4

LeoAngliae

Original post by viddy9

A new survey of public opinion on Trident has found that

Doesn't the poll show that 51% support renewal, while only 10% support Corbyn's plan and only 20% support not renewing?

That is broadly consistent with other polls showing 2-to-1 majority in favour of renewal

Reply 5

zimbo97

Original post by viddy9

or full disarmament.

This suggests that public opinion isn't as clear-cut as the media are making it out to be, and it's also worth noting that if Corbyn did adopt the compromise position, it is unlikely to damage is standing amongst unilateral disarmers: the 'left-wing' disarmers will still vote for him and the 'right-wing' disarmers wouldn't have voted for him anyway.

Channel 4 fact-check also says: "Over the long term, there is some evidence of public opinion shifting away from replacing Trident with a like-for-like system, especially if people are told about the likely cost."

So, there's still room for manoeuvre for Jeremy Corbyn on this issue.

I think in the 49% are the people who don't want full renewal but want to maintain some nuclear capability, so its not as simple as you made out.

Reply 6

zimbo97

Original post by viddy9

Also I have to say, I don't think his position could seriously be called a compromise. It appeases some of the unions, who don't make up a large proportion of the electorate by any means and who most obviously will back Corbyn either way.

I think his comments will solidify the idea that he is unable to appeal to anyone other than the hard-left labour vote; which probably is only around 15-20% of the population.
Nearly all credible commentators say that for labour to win in 2020, they have to convert some Tory voters, and now more than ever I don't think that A) Corbyn will, and B) he really wants to.

Reply 7

username1969391

Original post by viddy9

It was a poll for 'The Independent' meaning the majority of voters would have been their regular readers. Hardly representative.

Reply 8

viddy9

Original post by LeoAngliae

The results showed that 51% were in favour of full renewal, 20% were in favour of fully disarming and 29% were in favour of no-nuke subs.

Original post by zimbo97

I think in the 49% are the people who don't want full renewal but want to maintain some nuclear capability, so its not as simple as you made out.

The results showed that 51% were in favour of full renewal, 20% were in favour of fully disarming and 29% were in favour of no-nuke subs.

Original post by NickLCFC

It was a poll for 'The Independent' meaning the majority of voters would have been their regular readers. Hardly representative.

No, it was a poll conducted for the Independent by the polling company ORB. Almost all polls are conducted for a newspaper by a polling company, but they're all from nationally representative samples.

Reply 9

Limpopo

But everyone else doesnt have them.

The US are the first to sabre rattle about Iran and N Korea having nuclear weapons but it is the US who are the real enemy. It is they who have dropped nuclear weapons three times now leading to massive loss of life. They dropped them twice in Japan and dropped five of them on Spain.

Reply 10

LeoAngliae

Original post by viddy9

The results showed that 51% were in favour of full renewal, 20% were in favour of fully disarming

Broadly consistent with previous polls. The 29% who selected "subs with no nukes" are probably a bit muddled and were unsure which option to select, they can't really be taken seriously as it's not a serious position.

Polls consistently show a majority favour renewal, and in any case it's a matter of good public policy; a poll might show a majority favouring the return of capital punishment. That's not an argument to bring it back

Original post by KimKallstrom

I think that we should divvy out matters of national security to random people in opinion polls.

As opposed to random Tory boys working for hedge funds and property developers and arms companies.

So much better! :lol:

Reply 13

viddy9

Original post by LeoAngliae

In my view, the notion that we need to renew Trident is a muddled and not an intellectually serious position. The 51% who selected full renewal were probably a bit socially conditioned to believe that such a position means that "we're strong on defence", as well as slightly delusional about Britain's place in the world, and a tad affected by the status quo bias. These people probably have little understanding of probability and expected utility calculations.

Original post by LeoAngliae

Polls consistently show a majority favour renewal, and in any case it's a matter of good public policy; a poll might show a majority favouring the return of capital punishment. That's not an argument to bring it back

Agreed, my post was mainly focusing on the room that Corbyn has on this issue given that people are always banging on about 'electability'.

Reply 14

ChaoticButterfly

Original post by zimbo97

I think in the 49% are the people who don't want full renewal but want to maintain some nuclear capability, so its not as simple as you made out.

Well then can we have this discussion? Can we be shown the different options? And can we do it without being labeled a communist?

Reply 15

zimbo97

Original post by ChaoticButterfly

Well then can we have this discussion? Can we be shown the different options? And can we do it without being labeled a communist?

I don't think many people are labelling unilateralists communists. Peter Hitchens and some army people are in favour of it, hardly ardent left-wingers

Reply 16

Aj12

I cannot grasp why anyone who support corbyn's no nuke subs. Unilateral disarmament makes more sense than his compromise.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 17

Drewski

Original post by Limpopo

Using the Spain incident to back you up on that is hardly representative, especially when you get it wrong.
1, there were 4 weapons, not 5, only 3 of which landed on Spanish soil - the fifth landed at sea. None detonated.
2, they did not cause loss of life, massive or otherwise. The fatalities that occurred happened due to the mid air collision that caused the weapons to be dropped. Mid air collisions happen regardless of weapons carried or reasons for flying.
3, using Japan is poor and misleading as you can't compare the actions used in total warfare. We killed just as many in Dresden, we just didn't use nukes.

Reply 18

AlwaysWatching

I can't wait for trident to be renewed. :smile:

Reply 19

TimmonaPortella

Original post by viddy9

Corbyn's hypothetical compromise plan with the unions ("no-nuke subs" :wink:

or full disarmament.

This is the most hilarious illustration of backwards thought from him.

We're going to get rid of the actually useful part of the operation, but keep the rest for no other purpose than to keep people on the public payroll. :laugh:

Anyway, it doesn't matter what the public thinks on this. Trident renewal is going to happen, so labour may as well move along and stop tearing itself apart over it.