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27 out of 28 economists polled said British economy will suffer by leaving EU

username1204031

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

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Reply 1

MagicNMedicine

Nobody at this point can do proper cost-benefit analysis because you don't know what Brexit involves.

Does it involve a Norway style arrangement or Switzerland style arrangement, is it some kind of associate EU membership, will it be a more distant split with either the UK wanting less to do with Europe or the EU punishing the UK for leaving as a warning to others.

Unless you know what is on the table you can't accurately model it.

Reply 2

Trapz99

Original post by MagicNMedicine

Oh my gosh I learnt about cost benefit analysis in my a level economics class a few days ago. Yay I know what you mean

Reply 3

Sebastian Bartlett

Original post by JordanL_

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

Who are these 28 economists? Pretty sure their are way more than 28 economists in UK and they could have easily chosen those they knew would give that result. Also most economic organisations have stated its very difficult to predict with some saying good and others bad and some even saying both could happen.

Reply 4

HAQ

Original post by JordanL_

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

Exactly. Dont even know how this ended up being up for discussion in the first place.

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Reply 5

Jammy Duel

And how long term are they being asked? For instance with the Scottish referendum the consensus was that after 1 and 5 years both economies would be in a worse position, but after 10 the rest of Britain would likely be stronger and Scotland the same as they are now if they're lucky.

Nobody in their right mind would say that in the shirt term, or medium depending on how it's defined, things would be anything other than worse, the question is always in the longer term.

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Reply 6

Trapz99

Original post by JordanL_

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

Just because someone has studied a subject more than someone else doesn't make their view more right.

Reply 7

username1204031

Original post by Trapz99

Just because someone has studied a subject more than someone else doesn't make their view more right.

No, but it means their views very, very likely are more right, because they're based in fact and understanding rather than whatever the Daily Mail said.

Reply 8

sanban786

the verdict of 28 economists is not strong enough evidence to say that the British economy will suffer by leaving the EU.

But in my opinion Britain is not a well doing or a rich country. leaving the EU will definitely cause some negative effects whether politically or economically. But that's just my opinion :h:

Reply 9

Jammy Duel

Original post by sanban786

So having the 10th highest GDP (PPP) with the 2úth highest per capita, on that bit near the top where everything becomes rather flat, means we are not rich, and having one of the strongest growths outside the emerging markets means we are doing badly?

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Reply 10

KimKallstrom

Original post by JordanL_

No, but it means their views very, very likely are more right, because they're based in fact and understanding rather than whatever the Daily Mail said.

To be fair, you can find two Nobel Prize winning economists with polar opposite views on the exact same things.

I'd also caution against taking as gospel the word of people who are strictly theorists who have mostly never spent a day of their lives in an actual business. Economics graduates aren't hired in The City because what they learnt has anything to do with the real world, but more because to do the degree to a high level shows they have a brain and can learn things. That's why businesses and The City has graduates from kinds of subjects from History to Biology.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 11

Jebedee

If the only thing which can prevent turning the country into a caliphate is a financial cost then I'll gladly pay it.

Reply 12

Hussm

Just waiting for the conspiracy nutters to label them as marxist agenda pushers

Reply 13

caravaggio2

Bleedin Marxist Agenda Pushers!

Reply 14

caravaggio2

Original post by JordanL_

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

It would be interesting to know how many of the 27 correctly predicted the 2007-8 financial crisis.😊

Reply 15

nulli tertius

Original post by caravaggio2

It would be interesting to know how many of the 27 correctly predicted the 2007-8 financial crisis.😊

Probably the same ones who predicted the 2006 financial crisis, the 2005 financial crisis, the 2004 financial crisis, the 2003...

Reply 16

AlwaysWatching

Original post by JordanL_

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

Economists disagree with each other on just about anything. Plus who were these economists and why didn't they ask economists that are anti EU? Plenty of them around, I know several who are doing Mphils and PHD's who are anti EU.

Plus you can never really predict the financial market.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 17

username1921011

Original post by JordanL_

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

A whole twenty eight people? My life has changed. What a ridiculous sample size.

Also there are too many variables to accurately assess:

"Most of the mainly UK-based market and academic economists polled expected trade to worsen with Britain struggling to negotiate a favourable trade deal with its former EU partners after renouncing membership of the world's largest trading bloc"

They have no legal authority to deny us right to buy in to the free market, this is an example of pointless assertions. Given we pay out more for imports than we export and much of that to Germany we should be allowed to buy back in. This point is equally valid and equally without evidence.

"He said it would trigger "huge" investor uncertainty and make it more expensive for the government to sell British debt"

This is a good point in so far as in the short term investment would plummet. Its still dependent on circumstances however as with all economics.

"As well as the risk of Britain losing its unfettered access to its biggest trading partner, its companies might find it harder to tap into the pool of potential employees in the rest of the EU to fill their vacancies. Britain could also end up outside an area that accounts for just under a third of the value of all cross-border investment"

No evidence, why wouldnt the employees come anyway if the pay is good?

I am not on either side but i hardly find this article in any way convincing

Reply 18

JamesN88

I'm a pro-European but the idea that the Germans, French, Italians etc would suddenly refuse to sell us a **** load of cars every year is laughable. It's as ridiculous as Cameron claiming the jungle will move to Kent or UKIP's idea of a magical world where everything suddenly becomes perfect if we leave.

Reply 19

Unkempt_One

Original post by JordanL_

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?

Based on some of the things I've read about the methods of economists, I'm not sure why I should assume they actually know about the economy.

It is a tough question though. Will Germany try to screw over one of their largest export markets? Will we be in a lower negotiating position than Norway? I think I'll ask my trusty dice.