The future of the Economy?

Automation is an ancient trend and it doesn't correlate with increased unemployment. People are trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.

Automation is an ancient trend and it doesn't correlate with increased unemployment. People are trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.

I'd argue that is somewhat different. There were always different sectors to go into. We have never seen automation of areas like Law, HR or even parts of medicine. We are starting to see modernization of typically professional sectors.

You think I am dumb because I test my beliefs against evidence and jaded because I do not believe in a disaster prediction? I don't want to know what you think is intelligent optimism.

Sure, some wealthy incumbents are likely to see a drop in relative status, just like barrel coopers and blacksmiths don't make as much as they once did. But that is not a social problem, it is a private problem, and then only for some people, the vast majority of others benefiting from lower prices.

It doesn't have to be a disaster, a society where people have loads of freetime, but also where everyone is fed, clothed and has some luxuries is extremely possible and with the right political mechanisms, likely.

To say that what we are just now entering in terms of the technological revolution is nothing new, it's kinda sad if anything.

I'd argue that is somewhat different. There were always different sectors to go into. We have never seen automation of areas like Law, HR or even parts of medicine. We are starting to see modernization of typically professional sectors.

Reading your first post, I think we are agreeing with one another. Was your post meant to be criticising me? If so, I don't understand why.


What the OP has highlighted is the automation of production of legal forms and HR bureaucracy. That doesn't hold a candle against what has already happened, the automation of agriculture, clothing, house building, etc. that you have highlighted.

There is an exciting revolution on the horizon, but it is not automation of old industries, it is the direct improvement of humanity by genetic manipulation.

Machines are catching up to human capabilities, you mean

The best solution is to ensure human capabilities increase, through advances in health, genetic engineering, etc., so we can take the best jobs

Much has been made recently of the coming robotic revolution. Every sector will see some form of automation, from retail to medicine and the legal profession. This raises some issues, chief among them employment. Unlike previous changes, like the industrial revolution, this will be unlikely to see a transition of jobs from one area to another, some lost out but more people gaining something. We are far more likely to see large numbers of people become unemployed, with little scope for them to move elsewhere. Alongside this, the same revolution will drive down costs, making living generally cheaper. Which brings into play the possible solution to this problem, constant welfare.

Are we going to have to accept a permanent welfare state, where large numbers of people are simply expected to live off welfare? Or would we see a system like Saudi Arabia, where the state simply creates large numbers of non-jobs and an expanded civil service to give citizens some sense of purposes. Or finally, and most optimistically, will we simply see another large transition from one sector to another of jobs? Will many people find a way to remain in well paid purposeful jobs?

Thoughts?

Surely the more optimistic result is one where we continue advancing productivity, technology development, better medicine and quality of life for more people at the same time as reducing working hours... where eventually the role that was carried out by slaves and an oppressed proletariat is done by machines instead. The Suadi "solution" is the stupidest one and we are heading in that direction with our welfare state. That's the kind of optimism people had 100 yes ago ffs. Keynes was saying we would be working 2 day weeks etc. Instead of all this dystopian vision of the future can we go back to having something utopian to aim for please.

I feel that fairly soon, we will get to a point where people don't have to work to having some form of a living, whereas our parents generation had this view that you go out and earn and living and that nobody has a right to just get food and shelter. Soon this sort of thinking will be obsolete.

We need to realise that expanding the welfare state and shaming those who are poor into finding some drudgery will eventually not feasible, it's pretty sad though that it will never change until it's Mr. Respectible Middle Class Guy learning that his accountancy job can be done by an algorithm.

Basic JSA is greater than the per capita GDP of some countries and of this country in 1800. In that sense, you don't need to work today to have food and shelter. But what has happened is that JSA has come to be considered unliveably meagre, rather than that work has come to be considered superfluous.

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