Would you give Labour a chance in 2020?

Original post by Arran90

It's a foregone conclusion that Corbyn is not going to go down without one hell of a big fight - civil war more like it. The Parliamentary Labour Party might hate him but he still has the grassroots members on his side. Goodness knows how many people have joined Labour in the past few months just because they support Corbyn. Who runs a political party? It's members or its MPs?

If Corbyn loses the fight then expect over half of the grassroots members to resign with immediate effect. Labour membership could even end up being lower than what it was under Michael Foot. What if Dan Jarvis becomes leader but he loses the 2020 general election miserably whilst the Green Party wins nearly 10% of the popular vote and elects 4 or 5 MPs?

Greens getting 10%? Come on lol.

The fact is no one but the conservatives will win in 2020 unless there is an economic crash and even then it's debatable.

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Reply 242

Original post by paul514

Greens getting 10%? Come on lol.

With the Lib-Dems smashed up and the ousting of Corbyn as leader of Labour clearly indicating that Old Labour and progressive politics within the Labour Party is dead, buried, and finished then the door is thrown wide open for a progressive / 'electable' left party such as the Greens. The last general election was the best ever for the Greens where they saved a record number of deposits and beat the Lib-Dems in around a third of all constituencies.

Are you really thinking that the Corbyn supporters and the anti-austerity brigade will swallow their pride and vote Labour under Dan Jarvis? Can you see a resurgence for the Lib-Dems?

Reply 243

MildredMalone

16

Original post by Arran90

If Corbyn loses the fight then expect over half of the grassroots members to resign with immediate effect.

Wouldn't that be a shame :colone:

Reply 244

Elliot_97

2

As long as Corbyn is in charge, not a chance

Reply 245

Original post by Arran90

With the Lib-Dems smashed up and the ousting of Corbyn as leader of Labour clearly indicating that Old Labour and progressive politics within the Labour Party is dead, buried, and finished then the door is thrown wide open for a progressive / 'electable' left party such as the Greens. The last general election was the best ever for the Greens where they saved a record number of deposits and beat the Lib-Dems in around a third of all constituencies.

Are you really thinking that the Corbyn supporters and the anti-austerity brigade will swallow their pride and vote Labour under Dan Jarvis? Can you see a resurgence for the Lib-Dems?

Your living in cloud cookoo land if you think the greens would even get more than 5% never mind 10%.

People like you said the same in 2015 and look what happened, best result ever but what was the vote share? 1or 2%?

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Reply 246

Original post by paul514

Your living in cloud cookoo land if you think the greens would even get more than 5% never mind 10%.

People like you said the same in 2015 and look what happened, best result ever but what was the vote share? 1or 2%?

The Greens won 3.8% of the popular vote in 2015. Slightly below my prediction of 4% although Natalie Bennett's 'car wreck' interview didn't help. I don't know anybody who seriously thought that the Greens were going to win 10% in 2015. Remember back then there was still left / old Labour / progressive factions in Labour and the Lib-Dems weren't smashed to pieces yet. The political terrain has changed since this time last year and the ousting of Corbyn as leader WILL be a watershead moment for Labour as it will signal that certain factions have no place in Labour except amongst idealists on the periphery. Time to move on if you don't support Dan Jarvis...

Reply 247

Original post by Arran90

The Greens won 3.8% of the popular vote in 2015. Slightly below my prediction of 4% although Natalie Bennett's 'car wreck' interview didn't help. I don't know anybody who seriously thought that the Greens were going to win 10% in 2015. Remember back then there was still left / old Labour / progressive factions in Labour and the Lib-Dems weren't smashed to pieces yet. The political terrain has changed since this time last year and the ousting of Corbyn as leader WILL be a watershead moment for Labour as it will signal that certain factions have no place in Labour except amongst idealists on the periphery. Time to move on if you don't support Dan Jarvis...

Ok you told me, I guess people didn't know the lib dems were going to lose loads of seats

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Reply 248

DBR247

Liberterianism is certainly an interesting movement that could become greatly influential in the future of British Politics, especially considering the decline of the Liberal Democrats. Neither of the mainstream political parties seem to really offer what Britain needs and I feel a genuine modern alternative is needed.

Reply 249

Original post by paul514

Ok you told me, I guess people didn't know the lib dems were going to lose loads of seats

If the Greens got rid of Natalie Bennett as leader and put Caroline Lucas in her place then they could probably double the amount of support they get almost overnight. There's thousands of people up and down the country who admire Caroline Lucas - despite not believing in half the stuff she believes in - but now countless party members are sick and tired of Natalie Bennett as leader and think it's time she went.

If Corbyn was ousted as leader of Labour but then joined the Greens and because their deputy leader it would result in the Greens becoming quite a serious force in politics. It's also possible that the Guardian could switch from supporting Labour to supporting the Greens.

Reply 250

Original post by Arran90

If the Greens got rid of Natalie Bennett as leader and put Caroline Lucas in her place then they could probably double the amount of support they get almost overnight. There's thousands of people up and down the country who admire Caroline Lucas - despite not believing in half the stuff she believes in - but now countless party members are sick and tired of Natalie Bennett as leader and think it's time she went.

If Corbyn was ousted as leader of Labour but then joined the Greens and because their deputy leader it would result in the Greens becoming quite a serious force in politics. It's also possible that the Guardian could switch from supporting Labour to supporting the Greens.

I just saw a flying pig

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Reply 251

Original post by DBR247

Liberterianism is certainly an interesting movement that could become greatly influential in the future of British Politics, especially considering the decline of the Liberal Democrats. Neither of the mainstream political parties seem to really offer what Britain needs and I feel a genuine modern alternative is needed.

The problem with libertarians is that they are not anti-austerity.

What I am wondering is whether Britain is becoming a demographically complex - possibly even Balkanised society that politics is set to fragment in the future away from broad left of centre (Labour) broad right of centre (Conservative) with a centrist party (Lib-Dems) as the third alternative / popular protest vote. I was expecting that this arrangement would be replaced after the 2015 general election by a two plus two system of Labour and the Conservatives plus UKIP and the Greens, if Labour didn't have Corbyn as its leader, and the SNP in Scotland.

Could identity politics eventually result with parties for eastern Europeans, Muslims, patriotic Brits etc.?

Reply 252

DBR247

Original post by Arran90

The problem with libertarians is that they are not anti-austerity.

What I am wondering is whether Britain is becoming a demographically complex - possibly even Balkanised society that politics is set to fragment in the future away from broad left of centre (Labour) broad right of centre (Conservative) with a centrist party (Lib-Dems) as the third alternative / popular protest vote. I was expecting that this arrangement would be replaced after the 2015 general election by a two plus two system of Labour and the Conservatives plus UKIP and the Greens, if Labour didn't have Corbyn as its leader, and the SNP in Scotland.

Could identity politics eventually result with parties for eastern Europeans, Muslims, patriotic Brits etc.?

No they aren't anti-austerity but the point could also be argued that the reduction of the size of the state as argued by Liberterians could possibly limit the impact or necccessity of future austerity.

Reply 253

Original post by DBR247

No they aren't anti-austerity but the point could also be argued that the reduction of the size of the state as argued by Liberterians could possibly limit the impact or necccessity of future austerity.

But this creates a problem if there is a huge underclass in society then libertarian economic ideology will not appeal to many of them and they will want a party that provides materially for the underclass. To an extent, the large underclass and number of downtrodden industrial workers during the late 19th century is what spawned the Labour party because the existing Liberal and Conservative parties failed to provide what they wanted.

I perceive libertarian ideology as idealistic in a similar way to communism. It's all very well providing you have money or the ability to make money. In fact, I think that academic geniuses like professors in mathematics or cosmology will lose out under a libertarian economic system whilst wheeler dealers will prosper. Even the Green Party with many questionable and maligned policies is more pragmatic and appealing to the financially less well off than libertarian ideology is.

Reply 254

Rakas21

Original post by DBR247

Liberterianism is certainly an interesting movement that could become greatly influential in the future of British Politics, especially considering the decline of the Liberal Democrats. Neither of the mainstream political parties seem to really offer what Britain needs and I feel a genuine modern alternative is needed.

The youth wings of the Tories and Lib Dems are pretty libertarian.

Reply 255

Davij038

Original post by Rakas21

The youth wings of the Tories and Lib Dems are pretty libertarian.

Reply 256

Davij038

There's a fascist website which I occasionally lurk to laugh at the crazy Alex Jones nuts and they have the best description of Libertarians:

People that want to be left alone to have sex with inflatable dolls.

Its an ideology that goes hand in hand with everything that is degrading humanity and leads to the extremes of obesity, ignorance, fecklessness and mass retardation of culture and has befallen the once great state of America, and is what the brexiteer squad wish to impose on us.

Reply 257

ChaoticButterfly

Original post by Davij038

There's a fascist website which I occasionally lurk to laugh at the crazy Alex Jones nuts and they have the best description of Libertarians:

People that want to be left alone to have sex with inflatable dolls.

Its an ideology that goes hand in hand with everything that is degrading humanity and leads to the extremes of obesity, ignorance, fecklessness and mass retardation of culture and has befallen the once great state of America, and is what the brexiteer squad wish to impose on us.

Rational Wiki have a good one as well

•

What, exactly, is the goal? The selling point of libertarianism is its offer of expanded individual liberties to do as you please. The offer is illusory if it in fact means that your freedom of action is hindered at every turn by bosses, owners, and other toll collectors. They all can demand money, or that you contract away your libertarian freedoms, for the privilege of stepping on their lawns. These new gatekeepers of "liberty" can still do stuff like fire you for testing positive for now-legal drugs. If maximizing individual freedom is what you're after, or even securing maximal protection for enumerated freedoms, you should realize that your boss is a bigger threat to your freedom of speech, or freedom to practice your religious faith, than the local police or your local government, don't you? Libertarianism is too selective in the freedoms it chooses to protect, and the people it protects you from.

Reply 258

Davij038

http://existentialcomics.com/comic/38

Original post by ChaoticButterfly

Rational Wiki have a good one as well

•

What, exactly, is the goal? The selling point of libertarianism is its offer of expanded individual liberties to do as you please. The offer is illusory if it in fact means that your freedom of action is hindered at every turn by bosses, owners, and other toll collectors. They all can demand money, or that you contract away your libertarian freedoms, for the privilege of stepping on their lawns. These new gatekeepers of "liberty" can still do stuff like fire you for testing positive for now-legal drugs. If maximizing individual freedom is what you're after, or even securing maximal protection for enumerated freedoms, you should realize that your boss is a bigger threat to your freedom of speech, or freedom to practice your religious faith, than the local police or your local government, don't you? Libertarianism is too selective in the freedoms it chooses to protect, and the people it protects you from.

Reply 259

ChaoticButterfly